Human Salmonellosis: Estimation of Dose-Illness from Outbreak Data

The quantification of the relationship between the amount of microbial organisms ingested and a specific outcome such as infection, illness, or mortality is a key aspect of quantitative risk assessment. A main problem in determining such dose-response models is the availability of appropriate data. Human feeding trials have been criticized because only young healthy volunteers are selected to participate and low doses, as often occurring in real life, are typically not considered. Epidemiological outbreak data are considered to be more valuable, but are more subject to data uncertainty. In this article, we model the dose-illness relationship based on data of 20 Salmonella outbreaks, as discussed by the World Health Organization. In particular, we model the dose-illness relationship using generalized linear mixed models and fractional polynomials of dose. The fractional polynomial models are modified to satisfy the properties of different types of dose-illness models as proposed by Teunis et al . Within these models, differences in host susceptibility (susceptible versus normal population) are modeled as fixed effects whereas differences in serovar type and food matrix are modeled as random effects. In addition, two bootstrap procedures are presented. A first procedure accounts for stochastic variability whereas a second procedure accounts for both stochastic variability and data uncertainty. The analyses indicate that the susceptible population has a higher probability of illness at low dose levels when the combination pathogen-food matrix is extremely virulent and at high dose levels when the combination is less virulent. Furthermore, the analyses suggest that immunity exists in the normal population but not in the susceptible population.     

人力资源开发与高校办学定位

教育是人力资源开发的主导形式,高校办学定位直接影响着人才培养的类型和规格。适应科学技术的发展和社会经济增长方式的转变,高校办学定位必须与时俱进,不断调整和革新。在当前和今后相当长一段时间,高师院校必须走“以师为本、综合发展”之路。     

Progress and cumulation in the human sciences after the fall

What do we mean by progress and cumulation in the social and human sciences? Recent thinking in the philosophy and history of science has led to an abandonment of some versions of logical positivism and of verificationism that had a strong deductive and theory testing orientation. What is to replace them is less clear. This paper argues that progress and cumulation can be seen as a process of evaluation and retention within an epistemic community. Scholarly disciplines differ in their social structure and in their epistemic and normative commitments. Since sociology is a fragmented discipline, progress and cumulation differ within its multiple subdisciplines, which to varying extents represent epistemic communities. Brief sketches of progress (advance) and cumulation in several subdisciplines are offered.     

论全球化背景下国际私法中的国家主权观--由国家利益本位向国际社会利益趋向的转化

主权原则是国际私法中的一项基本原则。在国际私法中长期以来都存在国家利益优先的倾向,但随着全球化趋势的日益增强,传统国际私法中的主权观已越来越不适应国际民商事交往蓬勃发展的现实。全球化带来的是全球法律文明的趋同化,由此伴随着全球共同利益的产生。国际私法作为处理国际民商事法律冲突的法律部门,必须对这种国际社会利益做出反应,把对人权的尊重和保护作为追求正义价值的基本向度。     

Socialist utopias and scientific socialists: Primary fanaticisms and secondary contradictions

Early utopias envisioning a perfect order were superseded by small-scale versions in utopian communities. Scientific socialism then held that utopian socialism was doomed to failure in a hostile capitalistic world. As the Soviet experience elicited anti-utopias, utopianism has been unable to resolve its own contradictions in an imperfect world. This tragic outcome is an opportunity for sociology in its study of human interactions to analyze both the possibilities and the inherent limitations of proposed social systems. By monitoring the rich variety of social experience, it may help to restrain some of the fanaticisms that now surround us.These remarks were presented at the 1988 annual meetings of the Eastern Sociological Society in Philadelphia, March 1988.     

从殖民地到20世纪中叶的美国人力资源开发与政策

人力资本是经济增长的重要源泉之一,重视人力资源开发是美国成功的一个重要因素。本文通过对殖民地时期到20世纪中叶美国人力资源开发过程和政策的回顾,来说明人力资源开发对美国经济发展的重要作用。     

肉身化的思与诗

本文认为,长期受封建主义和理性主义压抑贬损的人类肉身是一种非常高贵的存在。它通过自己独特的肉身化思维,把整个世界人化。于是,世界具有了人的形体结构,情感愿望,生命追求。这个人化的世界实际是人肉身的诗意创造物。而整个的诗意创造活动本身,一方面展示了人的自然活力,另一方面又表现了人对自然的诗意驾驭力。这是人的肉身生命的诗意再生产,也是人作为万物灵长的资格证明,更是人诗意生存的基本表现形态。     

人力资本与教授收入

自从建国以来 ,教授收入一直是下降的。改革后 ,教授收入总体上低于其人力资本价值的状况仍未得到扭转。造成这种状况的原因是多方面的 ,但根本原因在于传统的高等教育体制不合理与无效率 ;在于高教领域里缺少激励—约束机制 ;冗员过多 ,而在分配上又向非教学人员倾斜 ;在于高校间缺少竞争与淘汰机制 ,使教育家兼企业家型的校长无法形成 ,也无人对教授的人力资本进行负责的评价。现行职称评定体系存在着严重的弊端 ,导致教授“市场”出现“柠檬市场”。在短期内因退出障碍虽不会出现“劣币逐良币” ,但在长期内 ,教授学术水平下降则是必然的。     

21世纪我国老年人口规模与老年人力资源开发

21世纪上半叶将是老年人口数量及老龄化突进的时期。老年人力资源是人力资源构成的重要组成部分 ,建立市场机制 ,把老年人愿为现代化建设作贡献的主观愿望和能力 ,与社会发展对老年人力资源的客观需要 ,合理、有效地结合 ,促进人口经济协调发展     

"人力资本论"中的劳工迁移观分析

二战结束后,随着美国科技革命的展开和经济结构中服务业的崛起,美国从20世纪50年代开始出现了经济繁荣和社会失业率并行攀升的趋势。对此,以西奥德.舒尔茨为代表的经济学家通过实践和潜心研究,提出了颇有影响的人力资本论,其中关于劳工迁移的精辟论述具有很强的历史和现实性价值,但是,其中的局限性也十分突出,尤其是强调区域工资差异的论述似有以偏概全之嫌。无论是在理论上,还是近现代史上的跨国移民以及二战后美国以劳工为核心的人口流动,都证明了该理论中的局限性。