从颜俊彦《盟水斋存牍》看明末广州、澳门贸易制度若干变动

《盟水斋存牍》是明末一部史料价值颇高的文集。作者颜俊彦,崇祯元年至四年任广州推官,《盟水斋存牍》就是他在任时处理的勘合、谳略、翻案、矜审、公移等的结集,涉及刑事、民事、诉讼等司法及行政实务,对明末广州、澳门贸易及相关管理制度变动也多有记载。如海道副使原来督察海防,兼管夷务、带管市舶,万历年间明神宗派太监李凤、高寀督办粤、闽榷税,使海道副使的超常权力被剥离,退出市舶管理。明中叶主管朝贡贸易的清闲衙门市舶司重新掌管税收,还协助海禁、防范接济走私等,权势膨胀,产生严重的贪污腐化,号称濒海贪泉。此外,广州、澳门的揽头、铺行、夷商纲纪也十分活跃,参与贸易。这些对了解明末广中事例演变具有重要的史料价值。     

网络游戏分级制度比较研究

网络游戏分级制度旨在唤醒社会对网络游戏的理性认识,增强游戏行业主体对网游产业的责任感和参与感,促进网络游戏行业的健康发展。网络游戏分级制度有助于解决确保网游行业健康有序地竞争与发展与保护作为网络游戏最大消费群体的未成年人权利免受侵害的两难命题。北美ESRB、欧洲PEGI、日本CERO的游戏分级制度实践为我们提供了比较研究和可资借鉴的范本。     

支持MLS的多层次嵌入式高可信软件架构

为增强安全关键系统的高可信能力,在分析高可信保障机制现状的基础上,提出了一种多层次的高可信软件架构。该架构采用时空分离思想、虚拟机技术,为基于MLS的嵌入式安全关键系统提供了一种整体解决方案。基于该架构,研究了多层次的安全和防危策略管理方法、信息流控制机制、可信软件的评估和认证方法,为安全关键嵌入式系统提供可认证的安全服务。     

Fire Risks in Oil Refineries: Economic Analysis of Camera Monitoring

A probabilistic method is presented to evaluate the economic value of fire monitoring by closed circuit TV camera in petroleum refineries. The proposed model is restricted to the analysis of risk reduction in an area where fires can be caused either by pump failure or by failure of valves and lines. The benefits come from reducing the time during which the fire grows undetected. Fire growth and expected values of losses are analyzed by a Markov model that includes five phases: (1) active undetected growth, (2) detection, (3) fire growth at the beginning of the firemen's intervention, (4) fire control, and (5) fire extinction. The results (e.g., the expected net present value of the investment) show that the proposed monitoring investment is attractive for an illustrative example.     

Hybrid Processing of Stochastic and Subjective Uncertainty Data

Uncertainty analyses typically recognize separate stochastic and subjective sources of uncertainty, but do not systematically combine the two, although a large amount of data used in analyses is partly stochastic and partly subjective. We have developed methodology for mathematically combining stochastic and subjective sources of data uncertainty, based on new "hybrid number" approaches. The methodology can be utilized in conjunction with various traditional techniques, such as PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) and risk analysis decision support. Hybrid numbers have been previously examined as a potential method to represent combinations of stochastic and subjective information, but mathematical processing has been impeded by the requirements inherent in the structure of the numbers, e.g., there was no known way to multiply hybrids. In this paper, we will demonstrate methods for calculating with hybrid numbers that avoid the difficulties. By formulating a hybrid number as a probability distribution that is only fuzzily known, or alternatively as a random distribution of fuzzy numbers, methods are demonstrated for the full suite of arithmetic operations, permitting complex mathematical calculations. It will be shown how information about relative subjectivity (the ratio of subjective to stochastic knowledge about a particular datum) can be incorporated. Techniques are also developed for conveying uncertainty information visually, so that the stochastic and subjective components of the uncertainty, as well as the ratio of knowledge about the two, are readily apparent. The techniques demonstrated have the capability to process uncertainty information for independent, uncorrelated data, and for some types of dependent and correlated data. Example applications are suggested, illustrative problems are shown, and graphical results are given.     

Assessing Engineering Resilience for Systems with Multiple Performance Measures

Recently, efforts to model and assess a system's resilience to disruptions due to environmental and adversarial threats have increased substantially. Researchers have investigated resilience in many disciplines, including sociology, psychology, computer networks, and engineering systems, to name a few. When assessing engineering system resilience, the resilience assessment typically considers a single performance measure, a disruption, a loss of performance, the time required to recover, or a combination of these elements. We define and use a resilient engineered system definition that separates system resilience into platform and mission resilience. Most complex systems have multiple performance measures; this research proposes using multiple objective decision analysis to assess system resilience for systems with multiple performance measures using two distinct methods. The first method quantifies platform resilience and includes resilience and other “ilities” directly in the value hierarchy, while the second method quantifies mission resilience and uses the “ilities” in the calculation of the expected mission performance for every performance measure in the value hierarchy. We illustrate the mission resilience method using a transportation systems‐of‐systems network with varying levels of resilience due to the level of connectivity and autonomy of the vehicles and platform resilience by using a notional military example. Our analysis found that it is necessary to quantify performance in context with specific mission(s) and scenario(s) under specific threat(s) and then use modeling and simulation to help determine the resilience of a system for a given set of conditions. The example demonstrates how incorporating system mission resilience can improve performance for some performance measures while negatively affecting others.     

人机工程学的发展及人机系统的可靠性

本文介绍了人机工程学(工效学)这一新兴边缘学科的研究内容、发展及现状,讨论了人-机系统的可靠性并着重讨论了人的操作可靠性,探讨了按人为差错进行可靠性分析与可靠性估计的人为差错和可靠性分析逻辑推演法(HERALD法)及系统能力方法(SC方法)。 本文的结论可供系统管理工作者及设计工作者,特别是可靠性管理及可靠性设计工作者参考。     

A comparison of Japanese failure models: Hybrid neural networks,logit models,and discriminant analysis

This article looks at the ability of a relatively new technique, hybrid artificial neural networks (ANNs), to predict Japanese banking and firm failures. These models are compared with traditional statistical techniques and conventional ANN models. The results suggest that hybrid neural networks outperform all other models in predicting failure for one year prior to the event. This suggests that for researchers, policymakers, and others interested in early warning systems, the hybrid network may be a useful tool for predicting banking and firm failures.     

二元经济结构理论对解决我国三农问题的启示

西方发展经济学的二元经济结构理论认为：只有当农业部门的剩余劳动已全部由工业部门吸收之后,农业部门的工资水平才能提高。我国当前“三农”问题产生的最主要原因：是建国初期城乡二元经济结构的制度化产生的阻滞作用。借鉴西方该理论对解决我国当前“三农”问题是一重要启示。     

高校"推优"工作的基础、点与面、制度

优秀团支部建设是高校推荐优秀团员青年入党工作的基础,党团校、社团载体是此项工作全面铺开的主阵地及其外围延伸,党内生活、任务担子与相关团、学活动则发挥锻炼重点对象实践素质的作用,双向责任,"一对一"联系人、定期考察鉴定,党团衔接则是保证"推优"过程规范化的好制度.