村民自治中“指导权”与“领导权”问题初探

村级公共权力是村级民主政治系统的核心要素,其稳定运行和有效行使对村级民主政治具有重要意义。村级民主政治系统运行过程中出现的诸多现象,可以从村级公共权力角度进行解释,制约村级公共权力运行的因素势必也是制约村级民主政治系统运行的因素。当前,“指导权”和“领导权”运行过程中出现的问题成为制约村级公共权力运行的首要原因。     

Forecast mean squared error reductionin the VAR(1) process

When VAR models are used to predict future outcomes, the forecast error can be substantial. Through imposition of restrictions on the off-diagonal elements of the parameter matrix, however, the information in the process may be condensed to the marginal processes. In particular, if the cross-autocorrelations in the system are small and only a small sample is available, then such a restriction may reduce the forecast mean squared error considerably.

In this paper, we propose three different techniques to decide whether to use the restricted or unrestricted model, i.e. the full VAR(1) model or only marginal AR(1) models. In a Monte Carlo simulation study, all three proposed tests have been found to behave quite differently depending on the parameter setting. One of the proposed tests stands out, however, as the preferred one and is shown to outperform other estimators for a wide range of parameter settings.     

Fourier–type tests involving martingale difference processes

We develop testing procedures which detect if the observed time series is a martingale difference sequence. Furthermore, tests are developed that detect change–points in the conditional expectation of the series given its past. The test statistics are formulated following the approach of Fourier–type conditional expectations first proposed by Bierens (1982 Bierens, H. J. (1982). Consistent model speci?cation tests. J. Econometr. 20:105–134.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and have the advantage of computational simplicity. The limit behavior of the test statistics is investigated under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. Since the asymptotic null distribution contains unknown parameters, a bootstrap procedure is proposed in order to actually perform the test. The performance of the bootstrap version of the test is compared in finite samples with other methods for the same problem. A real–data application is also included.     

Statistical test based on intuitionistic fuzzy hypotheses

In this paper, the classical statistical test based on intuitionistic fuzzy hypotheses in relation to the underlying population parametric is extended. In this approach, the type-I, type-II, power of test, and p-value are extended for intuitionistic fuzzy hypotheses. Throughout the paper, some applied examples are provided for both parametric and non parametric cases to clarify the discussions.     

Complex home care: challenges arising from the blurring of boundaries between family and professional care

Over the last 50 years, increasingly complex care (such as tracheostomy management, dialysis or enteral feeding) has shifted from hospital to home, with a concomitant rise in patient self-management and care given by family members. Recognition of the importance of the contribution of family care to the health system is also growing. This article reports the findings of a New Zealand study which explored the experiences of family carers who manage technical health procedures at home. It then draws attention to some broader issues raised by shifting complex care from professional management in hospital settings to family care at home, namely the ways in which complex home care blurs the boundaries between professional and family care (creating the ambiguous position of the expert carer) and questions of safety and responsibility in family care. We also discuss the implications for policy around family caregiving in New Zealand. Given the potential physical and mental health impacts of caring, it is time for renewed consideration of what family carers should be expected or allowed to manage and how the health system can support them in their important role.     

The Conversational Model and Child and Family Counselling: Treating Chronic Complex Trauma in a Systemic Framework

Child and Family Counselling Teams in NSW Community Health Services are expected to provide therapeutic services to children who have experienced complex trauma. However, parental trauma is often overlooked or referred elsewhere. A systemic perspective informed by attachment theory and trauma theory provides the basis for addressing parental trauma in Child and Family Counselling Teams, thereby improving parenting. The Conversational Model is an evidence‐based intervention for chronic complex trauma. The foundations of the Conversational Model and its brief component, Short Term Intensive Psychodynamic Psychotherapy, are outlined and a case study is given to illustrate the usefulness of the intervention in Child and Family Counselling. Highlighted is the importance of addressing systemic trauma through parenting to improve attachment quality, family relationships, and children's function.     

Two new estimators for the proportion of true null hypotheses in multiple test

In multiple hypothesis test, an important problem is estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses. Existing methods are mainly based on the p-values of the single tests. In this paper, we propose two new estimations for this proportion. One is a natural extension of the commonly used methods based on p-values and the other is based on a mixed distribution. Simulations show that the first method is comparable with existing methods and performs better under some cases. And the method based on a mixed distribution can get accurate estimators even if the variance of data is large or the difference between the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis is very small.     

Combined asymmetric spatial weights matrix with application to housing prices

In this study, a combined asymmetric spatial weights matrix is proposed for capturing the unequal spatial dependence of housing prices, where the advantage of this matrix was demonstrated by a non-nested hypothesis test. To explore the heterogeneous spatial impacts of urban essential characteristics on housing prices over the eastern, central, and western regions of China, after the Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests, the spatial Durbin model using the proposed weights matrix was applied to each region. The estimation results showed that the direct impacts of college and new employment were significantly negative in the eastern region, but not significant in the central and western regions. By contrast, the direct impacts of hospitals and scenic spots were significantly positive in eastern China, but not significant in central and western China. In addition, the indirect impacts of the four variables were not significant in the three regions. These results suggest that in eastern China, the government may increase the requirements for using medical resources and close tourist attractions in a single city to cool down the skyrocketing housing prices in this area.     

Bootstrap methods for multivariate hypothesis testing

The nonparametric and parametric bootstrap methods for multivariate hypothesis testing are developed. They are used to approximate the null distribution of the test statistics proposed by Duchesne and Francq (2015 Duchesne, P., Francq, C. (2015). Multivariate hypothesis testing using generalized and {2}-inverses—with applications. Statistics 49:475–496.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), resulting in bootstrap testing procedures. In the problem of testing for the mean vector of a multivariate distribution, the asymptotic validity of the bootstrap methods is proved. The finite sample performance of the new solutions is demonstrated by means of Monte Carlo simulation studies. They indicate that for small-sample size, the bootstrap tests provide a better finite sample properties than the asymptotic tests considered by Duchesne and Francq (2015 Duchesne, P., Francq, C. (2015). Multivariate hypothesis testing using generalized and {2}-inverses—with applications. Statistics 49:475–496.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).