从贾平凹三部曲看作家的悲剧情结

贾平凹的小说创作蕴含着深厚的悲剧情结。以贾氏三部曲《浮躁》、《废都》、《秦腔》为例,考量其中的人事遭际,体察作家的悲剧情怀,将其具体细分为社会悲剧、欲望悲剧和生存悲剧。进而从作家早年生活所形成的性格特征和成年后的文化意识两个方面,探讨贾氏悲剧情结的形成原因。     

关于公共政策研究范式问题的讨论

公共政策问题内在的复杂性,使得其研究范式问题必须予以重视。复杂系统建模与仿真技术的应用,支持了不断试错的进化主义认知理念,支持了基于仿真环境的群决策方法,由此还可以在虚拟现实中进行未来场景的推演和校正,这些构成了新的公共政策研究范式。     

合作管理研究框架

介绍了合作管理研究的背景和当前主要的企业合作理论,认为合作是管理学研究的主题,当前管理学对合作的研究缺乏系统的梳理,同时,管理理论的研究缺乏严格的前提假设,最后在界定合作以及提出"现实人假设"和"资源无限性假设"的基础上,给出了合作管理理论的研究框架。     

大数据时代的计算社会科学与学术话语体系重构

社会科学的发展经历了从分析到综合再到复杂性科学三个阶段,与之相伴,科学方法论从还原论到整体论再到复杂适应论持续演进。复杂适应系统理论把被经典科学理性所简化、排除的多样性、无序性、个体性因素重新带回科学的视野,深刻了社会科学家对研究对象的本质的认识,指明了社会科学方法体系创新和突破的方向。但由于缺乏能够满足复杂适应系统研究要求的数据条件和技术手段,使其实际取得的成果远未达到人们的期待。大数据时代带来的空前丰富的数据资源与先进的数据处理技术,为社会科学实证研究开辟出新的路径,计算社会科学已经形成大数据的获取与分析、多主体社会模拟、互联网社会科学实验三大方法体系,为社会调查、统计分析、社会实验等研究方法增添了全新的内容。复杂适应系统研究的技术实现正在成为可能,社会科学正处在一次突破性进展的前夜。在新一轮的信息技术革命浪潮中,中国已经跻身于世界先进行列,这为中国社会科学实现“弯道超车”准备了极为有利的条件。中国社会科学界应当敏锐地觉察和把握这一重大机遇,积极推动计算社会科学的发展,使之在实现国际学术话语体系重构上发挥重要作用。     

A note on multivariate linear regression

In this note, a hypothesis test based on relevant statistical differences is proposed for multivariate linear regression models whose design matrix rank does not equal the number of regression variables. A statistical example is also provided to illustrate the proposed hypothesis test.     

Testing the equality of two independent regression models

In some situations, for example in agriculture, biology, hydrology, and psychology, researchers wish to determine whether the relationship between response variable and predictor variables differs in two populations. In other words, we are interested in comparing two regression models for two independent datasets. In this work, we will use the parametric and nonparametric methods to establish hypothesis testing for the equality of two independent regression models. Then the simulation study is provided to investigate the performance of the proposed method.     

Bootstrap tests for time varying cointegration

This article proposes wild and the independent and identically distibuted (i.i.d.) parametric bootstrap implementations of the time-varying cointegration test of Bierens and Martins (2010 Bierens, H. J., Martins, L. F. (2010). Time varying cointegration. Econometric Theory 26:1453–1490.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The bootstrap statistics and the original likelihood ratio test share the same first-order asymptotic null distribution. Monte Carlo results suggest that the bootstrap approximation to the finite-sample distribution is very accurate, in particular for the wild bootstrap case. The tests are applied to study the purchasing power parity hypothesis for twelve Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and we only find evidence of a constant long-term equilibrium for the U.S.–U.K. relationship.     

印度对中国崛起的认知

在中印共同崛起的大背景下,探究印度对中国崛起的认知尤为必要。通过皮尤＂全球态度调查＂项目的数据可见印度对中国崛起的认知呈现＂负面＂态势。究其原因,在个人层面,印度公众对中国的无知与冷漠以及某些媒体记者对中国的歪曲报道直接造成这一结果;在国家层面,中印之间在边界争端、西藏问题、中印巴和中美印这四个关键议题上存在分歧,而这些敏感的议题又通过媒体的肆意渲染而影响印度公众对中国崛起的认知;印度公众对中国崛起的认知源于中印之间存在的＂安全困境＂。     

Estimating the Conditional Error Distribution in Non‐parametric Regression

Abstract. We consider a general non‐parametric regression model, where the distribution of the error, given the covariate, is modelled by a conditional distribution function. For the estimation, a kernel approach as well as the (kernel based) empirical likelihood method are discussed. The latter method allows for incorporation of additional information on the error distribution into the estimation. We show weak convergence of the corresponding empirical processes to Gaussian processes and compare both approaches in asymptotic theory and by means of a simulation study.