Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

Horwitz's rule, transforming both sides and the design of experiments for mechanistic models

Summary. The paper develops methods for the design of experiments for mechanistic models when the response must be transformed to achieve symmetry and constant variance. The power transformation that is used is partially justified by a rule in analytical chemistry. Because of the nature of the relationship between the response and the mechanistic model, it is necessary to transform both sides of the model. Expressions are given for the parameter sensitivities in the transformed model and examples are given of optimum designs, not only for single-response models, but also for experiments in which multivariate responses are measured and for experiments in which the model is defined by a set of differential equations which cannot be solved analytically. The extension to designs for checking models is discussed.     

关于新时期高校学生工作的思考

从人才培养的高度 ,分析了新时期高校学生思想政治工作面临的新问题 ,结合工作实际对高校学生思想政治工作的理论问题进行了论述 ,以期为探索新时期高校学生工作的运行模式提供一些参考     

美国与英国公益性科技管理体系研究

从国家科技管理机构、科研体系及公共科研成果转化三个方面分析美国和英国的公益性科技管理制度及其发展变化.随着经济全球化和知识自由流动的发展,科学技术在国家经济发展与社会进步方面的作用越来越大,政府在科技管理上的职能与地位也随之发生变化,总的来说是由原来的主要资助者和实施者转变为催化者和促进者.     

社会转型与先进文化

社会转型为先进化的产生提供了基础，先进化是社会转型成功的客观要求。社会转型决定先进化，先进化又反作用于社会转型。当前中国的快速转型为先进化发挥作用提供了历史舞台，先进化只能服务于建设有中国特色的社会主义的任务，它对当前中国的社会转型起推动作用。发展当代中国的先进化，关键是要从中国先进化的基本内容上搞清楚和把握好主流性、创新性、开放性、先导性、民族性这几个中国先进化建设的重要特点，从而更好地指导当代中国的先进化建设。     

思想政治工作方法程序的规律性研究

思想政治工作方法在思想政治工作的实际操作运用过程中存在着客观缜密的步骤和环节即程序的,表现为一个有规律的前后相继、螺旋上升的运动过程,我们必须认真研究思想政治工作方法在实际运用过程中的程序及其规律,以便更有效地开展思想政治工作,达到提高人们的思想政治品德素质的目的。     

求直射变换的二重元素问题的简便方法

本文对高等几何中直射变换的二重元素的关系进行探索,得出一个求解直射变换的二重元素问题的简便方法.     

大中专在校学生考试分数的正态化线性转换

本文分析了考试记分方法中传统的绝对百分体制的缺陷，给出了一种正态化转换分数的算法，较适合于在校大中专学生学习水平的横向评价。     

论曾纪泽的外交思想及实践

曾纪泽是我国近代著名的爱国外交家。中西文化是曾纪泽外交思想的源泉。他是传统外交向近代外交转化的代表人物之一 ,他的外交思想反映了当时中国外交发展的方向。中俄谈判和中法交涉无疑体现了他的外交思想。他既不同于主和派 ,又不同于主战派。     

论在解放思想中统一思想

解放思想和统一思想是辩证统一的关系 ,在解放思想中统一思想是马克思主义认识论的一条基本规律 ,这既是我们党的宝贵经验 ,也是当前历史任务对我们提出的新要求