Monotonic change point estimation of generalized linear model-based regression profiles

In this article, a maximum likelihood estimator is derived in the generalized linear model-based regression profiles under monotonic change in Phase II. The performance of the proposed estimator is comprehensively investigated through some special cases, and compared with estimators under step change and drift. The results show that the proposed estimator has better performance in small and medium shifts under different increasing changes. Finally, the applicability of the proposed estimator is illustrated using a real case.     

Retrospective change detection in categorical time series

The aim of this paper is to propose methods of detecting change in the coefficients of a multinomial logistic regression model for categorical time series offline. The alternatives to the null hypothesis of stationarity can be either the hypothesis that it is not true, or that there is a temporary change in the sequence. We use the efficient score vector of the partial likelihood function. This has several advantages. First, the alternative value of the parameter does not have to be estimated; hence, we have a procedure that has a simple structure with only one parameter estimation using all available observations. This is in contrast with the generalized likelihood ratio-based change point tests. The efficient score vector is used in various ways. As a vector, its components correspond to the different components of the multinomial logistic regression model’s parameter vector. Using its quadratic form a test can be defined, where the presence of a change in any or all parameters is tested for. If there are too many parameters one can test for any subset while treating the rest as nuisance parameters. Our motivating example is a DNA sequence of four categories, and our test result shows that in the published data the distribution of the four categories is not stationary.     

Fourier–type tests involving martingale difference processes

We develop testing procedures which detect if the observed time series is a martingale difference sequence. Furthermore, tests are developed that detect change–points in the conditional expectation of the series given its past. The test statistics are formulated following the approach of Fourier–type conditional expectations first proposed by Bierens (1982 Bierens, H. J. (1982). Consistent model speci?cation tests. J. Econometr. 20:105–134.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and have the advantage of computational simplicity. The limit behavior of the test statistics is investigated under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. Since the asymptotic null distribution contains unknown parameters, a bootstrap procedure is proposed in order to actually perform the test. The performance of the bootstrap version of the test is compared in finite samples with other methods for the same problem. A real–data application is also included.     

The Diffusion of Tolerance: Birth Cohort Changes in the Effects of Education and Income on Political Tolerance

Political tolerance—the willingness to extend civil liberties to traditionally stigmatized groups—is pivotal to the functioning of democracy and the well‐being of members of stigmatized groups. Although political tolerance has traditionally been more common among American elites, we argue that as tolerance has increased, it has also diffused to less educated and less affluent segments of the population. The relative stability of political attitudes over the life course and the socialization of more recent birth cohorts in contexts of increased tolerance suggest that this diffusion of tolerance occurs across birth cohorts rather than time periods. Using age‐period‐cohort models and more than three and a half decades of repeated cross‐sectional survey data, we find persistent and robust across‐cohort declines in the importance of both income and higher education in determining levels of political tolerance. Declines in the effects of socioeconomic status are evident with tolerance toward all five out‐groups in the analysis—anti‐religionists, gays and lesbians, communists, militarists, and racists—but to varying degrees. These findings fit with a model of changes in public opinion, particularly views of civil and political rights, through processes of cultural diffusion and cohort replacement.     

Fragments of Modernization: Domestic Spaces Indicating Traditional Dialects in a Modern Speech

This article examines the change in Turkish domestic space through modernization and, in particular, the artifact of lace, as a nonchanging object in Turkish home in its relationship with the “traditional” and the “modern” domestic settings. Thereby it investigates how traditional and modern settings are defined in Turkish society and, this leads to a further analysis of the modernization process in Turkey within the scope of Turkish house and its domestic settings. The aim of the article is to analyze lace as an agent, which is an actant of the change in domestic settings, to read the connection between the daily life of people and social lives of artifacts. Therefore, examining the dialogue of lace with traditional and modern domestic settings provides to deconstruct the network of the artifact, the house and the individual during the modernization process that Turkish society has been through. The theoretical perspective of the article relies on a material‐semiotic approach with an emphasis on Latour's Actor‐Network Theory and, the methodology of the article is based on ethnography: It includes observations and semi‐structured interviews conducted with people from different social environments focusing on the meaning and the use of lace in domestic environment.     

制度变迁过程的历史沉淀成本效应分析

在新古典完全竞争市场理论——历史沉淀成本决策无关性的假设前提背景下,从未来不确定性、信息不完全和财务预算约束等角度考察历史沉淀成本对制度变迁过程的影响,为制度变迁过程确立一个新的分析视角,从而弥补了原有研究的不足。在现实经济生活中,市场不完全是常态,有限理性、交易成本、信息不完全和环境不确定性等因素普遍存在,历史沉淀成本很容易发挥作用,从而表明:未来越不确定,信息越不完全,资源越稀缺,导致财务预算越硬,历史沉淀成本效应越大,制度变迁过程越困难;反之越容易。由此可发现,在放松完全竞争市场的假设前提条件下,当事人的决策不可能不受到历史沉淀成本的影响。因此,只有当事人对历史沉淀成本的约束条件作出正确的理性反应,才能使其决策更加贴近真实世界,这对于全面认识制度变迁过程具有重要的理论创新意义和现实指导价值。     

全球变暖与历史学发展的四个论题

气候变化科学对以人类为中心的人文主义史学具有重要影响。科学家关于气候变化的观点不仅挑战了人类支撑历史学这门学科的观念,而且挑战了后殖民与后帝国时代历史学家在过去20年来,回应战后非殖民地化与全球化势态时所运用的分析策略。现在的历史知识构建以人文主义史学关于人类历史与自然史古老区分的失效为历史学科的大前提,将人类视为一种地质力量的人类世观念严格限定了人文主义史学,要求资本主义历史与地球和人类进化的更大尺度的历史进行对话。有记载的历史与深层历史进行这种对话是一个探索历史理解界限的过程。     

社会转型期宪法与社会变迁的冲突关系及其调适

在社会转型时期,宪法与社会变迁之间经常会产生冲突,使得一些改革措施面临违宪性争议。宪法与社会变迁之间产生冲突的原因主要有:宪法的滞后性与社会的发展性之间的矛盾;宪法至上理念与宪法工具主义思维之间的背离;宪法形式上的至上性与实质上的非至上性之间的割裂。要想从根本上解决宪法与社会变迁之间的冲突,需要将当前宪法由"总章程"式的宪法模式转变为原则性的宪法模式。     

从哲学家到共产主义者

《关于费尔巴哈的提纲》第十一务：“以往的哲学家们只是解释世界,而问题在于改变世界。”这是学者从马克思著作中引用最多和最熟悉的经典名句。然而学者无论在直观表象理解上,还是深度逻辑把握上,对其解释都不曾达成共识,甚至呈现巨大的歧义。批判以往解读方式的两个预设前提,新的解读方式旨在从马克思思想自身发展的内在逻辑出发诠释其本意。第十一条表明马克思思想发展的根本转变——从哲学家到共产主义者的身份转变．从哲学（理论）为根基到以现实世界（历史）为根基的转变。     

地方文教与传统宗族社会结构的变迁——以清代衡阳地区为个案的考察

清代以士绅为主体的衡阳地方精英积极参与本地区的文教事务,同时这一时期也是地方宗族社会的发展成熟期。宗族组织在正式形成之后,需要借助政治文化优势来扩大其生存发展的社会空间,因此士绅参与地方文教与其宗族的利益紧密联系起来。宗族组织通过与正统儒家文化结合实现了彰显地位和权威的目的,但是参与主体的流动不定,又反映出了地方社会权力结构的不稳定性。清末新政的实施使得士绅被纳入到国家政治体系,其行为主旨与宗族的传统利益诉求逐渐发生偏离,致使王朝正统性象征在民间社会中的地位发生动摇。