Psychological Testing in Child Custody Evaluations With Ethnically Diverse Families: Ethical Concerns and Practice Recommendations

Given increasing ethnic diversity of divorcing families, it is more important than ever for family court evaluators to understand the ethical concerns and principles underlying the use of psychological testing with ethnic family members. Major professional organizations have promulgated the guidelines of child custody evaluation with an imperative to consider cultural factors in the evaluation. However, there is a paucity of literature that addresses ethnicity and psychological testing in child custody evaluations. This article addresses three major ethical domains: (a) competence, (b) test fairness, and (c) test interpretation when psychological tests are used. Practice recommendations provide guidelines to ensure ethical standards and competence in using psychological testing with ethnically diverse families in child custody and other family court evaluations.     

A lattice of participation: reflecting on examples of children's and young people's collective engagement in influencing social welfare policies and practices

The article introduces four case studies from Wales, France and Finland and explores the situated, intergenerational and dynamic nature of collective participation in child welfare settings. Collective participation is conceived of as a process of engagement in which children and young people have some influence over the initiation or direction of a project; and as seeking a product, or outcome. The case studies represent a range of forms of collective engagement and highlight some key resources which supported children's participation (communicative spaces, time, money, knowledge, social position, attitudes, social networks, institutional commitment, equipment, food and transport). Challenges encountered in achieving effective participation in different nations within Europe are also identified, related to generation barriers and the distribution of resources. These elements are used to construct a lattice of participation: a model for conceptualising children and young people's collective engagement in participatory projects. The model provides a tool for visualising how, at different stages of a project, actors (children, young facilitators, adults and institutions) exercise influence by directing the use of different resources, such as finance and time. It invites reflection on why influence is limited in some stages of a participatory project, and how it is supported in other stages.     

我国城市休闲化发展质量的评价研究

城市休闲化是当代城市发展中的一个新课题。本文结合我国城市休闲化发展的实际状况,通过构建由公共基础、消费能力、产业能力和特色资源等4方面指标组成的城市休闲化质量测评体系,对我国27个省会城市、4个直辖市和5个计划单列市的发展质量进行比较全面和客观的质量测度与数据分析。研究表明,我国城市休闲化质量在整体上处于较低的发展程度。     

“营改增”政策试点的市场初步评估

会计市场咨询表明,＂营改增＂政策是一个相当积极的信号,对于上海行业细分和服务外包的发展、尤其是总部经济的发展有重大的推动作用。但从政策实施的实际效果看：首先受益的是制造业服务业分离企业,部分服务企业实际税负尚未降低;部分中资企业对于政策的了解较为局限,不懂得如何从＂营改增＂中获益;没有完整会计账册的小微企业无法享受增值税抵扣带来的税负减轻,反而由此在同业竞争中与大中企业相比丧失了部分议价竞争能力。针对上述问题,应采取相应的对策措施逐步加以解决。     

《民族学刊》2014~2018年影响因子比较分析——基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》数据

《民族学刊》于2010年6月创刊,相继入选“复印报刊资料重要转载来源期刊”“北大核心期刊”“人文社科核心期刊”和“CSSCI来源期刊”,表明了《民族学刊》在学界和期刊界的学术影响,其期刊的影响因子值得研究和探讨。本文基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》公布的影响因子、各类计量指标和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量等数据,对《民族学刊》的相应数据与C95民族学类期刊在期刊影响力指数、影响因子均值及量效指数均值、各类计量指标均值和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量均值等方面进行统计对比,分析《民族学刊》2014~2018年五年间的影响因子数据在民族学类期刊位置及其学术影响。     

The Use of Simulation to Reduce the Domain of “Black Swans” with Application to Hurricane Impacts to Power Systems

Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans. In this article, we show how a simulation model can be used to identify previously unknown potentially extreme events that if not identified and treated could occur as black swans. We show that by manipulating a verified and validated model used to predict the impacts of hazards on a system of interest, we can identify hazard conditions not previously experienced that could lead to impacts much larger than any previous level of impact. This makes these potential black swan events known and allows risk managers to more fully consider them. We demonstrate this method using a model developed to evaluate the effect of hurricanes on energy systems in the United States; we identify hurricanes with potentially extreme impacts, storms well beyond what the historic record suggests is possible in terms of impacts.     

Risk Assessment of Human Listeriosis from Semisoft Cheeses Made from Raw Sheep's Milk in Lazio and Tuscany (Italy)

Semisoft cheese made from raw sheep's milk is traditionally and economically important in southern Europe. However, raw milk cheese is also a known vehicle of human listeriosis and contamination of sheep cheese with Listeria monocytogenes has been reported. In the present study, we have developed and applied a quantitative risk assessment model, based on available evidence and challenge testing, to estimate risk of invasive listeriosis due to consumption of an artisanal sheep cheese made with raw milk collected from a single flock in central Italy. In the model, contamination of milk may originate from the farm environment or from mastitic animals, with potential growth of the pathogen in bulk milk and during cheese ripening. Based on the 48‐day challenge test of a local semisoft raw sheep's milk cheese we found limited growth only during the initial phase of ripening (24 hours) and no growth or limited decline during the following ripening period. In our simulation, in the baseline scenario, 2.2% of cheese servings are estimated to have at least 1 colony forming unit (CFU) per gram. Of these, 15.1% would be above the current E.U. limit of 100 CFU/g (5.2% would exceed 1,000 CFU/g). Risk of invasive listeriosis per random serving is estimated in the 10^?12 range (mean) for healthy adults, and in the 10^?10 range (mean) for vulnerable populations. When small flocks (10–36 animals) are combined with the presence of a sheep with undetected subclinical mastitis, risk of listeriosis increases and such flocks may represent a public health risk.     

基于稳健稀疏主成分的经济增长影响因素分析

从传统生产要素、制度、金融和经济结构等四个方面选取了19个影响中国经济增长的变量,运用稳健稀疏主成分方法进行实证分析。结果表明物质资本、城镇化率、金融深度、城镇居民消费结构、基尼系数、技术水平已成为促进中国经济增长的主要动力,但东、中、西部经济增长的主要影响因素互不相同。在此基础上就如何进一步促进中国经济增长和区域经济均衡发展提出了若干政策建议。     

论网络舆情对高校群体性事件的影响

近年来,网络舆情已经成为影响高校群体性事件发生和演变的重要因素.它往往成为直接引发高校群体性事件的"导火索"、间接推动高校群体性事件恶性化发展的"催化剂"和阻碍高校群体性事件得到有效解决的"绊脚石".为了应对这些影响,应当构建高校网络舆情预警机制,加强高校网络舆情的正确引导,建立高校群体性事件的网上、网下联动应急处理机制.     

传播议程经济的乘数效应

传媒经济的实质是议程经济,只有议程经济可以联系传媒传受即供需双方,实现传媒经济均衡。议程经济发挥作用的机制是传播的乘数效应,在传统媒体和新媒体融合的生态下,媒介生产方式体现出全新的特征。信息的倍增效果产生的正反作用对传播的议程经济的取得提出了新的挑战,值得高度重视,有必要深入研究以网络信息传播为代表的新媒体的规制原则和方法,才能确保传媒经济和社会双重效益的实现。