基于改进蚁群算法的商业银行信用风险评估方法

对原蚁群算法的转移概率和信息素更新机制进行改进,并首次将蚁群算法应用于商业银行的信用风险评估问题,取得满意的结果。通过将计算结果与回归分类算法、判别分析和遗传规则进行比较,表明应用该算法解决商业信用风险问题更加有效。     

传统道德对政治文明建设的双重影响

传统道德中仁政爱民、重道尚义、立志与践履、克治与慎独的思想和品德等对执政党及其领导干部有积极的影响,同时,传统道德中官僚特权、宗法等级、重人治轻法治的思想和观念对执政党及其领导干部又有消极的影响。这种双重影响会导致党员干部执政能力的大小和执政水平的高低,进而直接推动或阻碍政治文明的发展进程。必须加强党员干部的思想道德教育,继承和发扬优秀的道德传统,反对和摒弃消极的道德传统,提高他们的思想道德素质,以利于政治文明建设。     

编辑素质对高校学报质量的影响

随着社会的发展,学术研究已成规模,对于学术的交流也日益呈现出广泛、快速、深入的态势。高校学报是高校学术信息的载体和交流的平台,其质量的高低很大程度上影响着高校自身的发展。影响学报质量的原因是多方面的,包括文稿质量、校对水平、编辑素质、印装质量等,其中编辑素质是关键,文稿质量是基础。编辑素质不仅影响高校学报的质量,而且也是高校人才队伍建设的重要方面。     

非营利组织参与危机管理的途径和影响分析

非营利组织是全面整合的危机管理系统的一个重要组成部分。非营利组织和政府在危机管理中的参与目标和内容、利益相关性、活动区域、资源渠道、参与效力、参与方式等方面都有所不同。非营利组织参与危机管理可以弥补政府现阶段危机管理的能力不足和缺陷,加强国际危机管理合作;保障受灾人群的利益,维护社会稳定;提升非营利组织的影响力和能力,促进公民社会发展;弘扬社会公德,促进政治文明建设。     

CSSCI与社会科学评价

自加菲尔德创立引文索引系统 50年来 ,科学引文索引的应用范围日益拓宽 ,产生了广泛影响。尽管引文分析存在一定的局限 ,但用此方法评价社会科学是完全可能的 ,而且也是合理的和有必要的。由南京大学和香港科技大学联合研制的CSSCI系统以其收录较为完整的中文人文社会科学期刊数据 ,快捷方便的统计分析 ,多途径的检索功能获得首批用户称赞和学术界的好评 ,它将为我国人文社会科学信息资源的开发利用 ,为繁荣我国人文社会科学的研究和评价作出积极贡献     

创意教学自我效能感及其对教学的影响

创意教学自我效能感是在教学效能感与创意自我效能感概念和理论的基础上提出的,是教师对自己的创造性教学能力及其影响学生学习程度的知觉和信念。它会受到教师对教学任务和自身教学能力的分析、他人评价以及自身经验和生理状态的影响,同时也会影响教师的创造性教学行为,是一个重要的个体预测变量。进一步的相关研究应关注创意教学自我效能感产生的机制、途径以及创意教学自我效能感与学生个体特征是如何相互作用并影响学生的创造力发展等问题。     

新疆兵团经济责任审计评价方法探析

从国外经济责任审计研究与实施来看,我国经济责任审计评价指标体系的构建与评价方法有待完善。而新疆生产建设兵团特殊的历史使命与管理体制决定了其经济责任审计评价方法应区别于其他任何省市和地方,应采用定量指标为主,定性与定量有机结合的方式构建经济责任审计评价指标体系,并按兵、师、团三级分别设置各级指标评价体系;将兵团农牧团场改革的"1+3"文件精神融入评价指标体系中,突出"建设屯垦戍边新型团场"等经济责任审计评价指标;具体指标体系的评价方法应采用德尔菲法与层次分析法相结合的模糊综合评价法。     

M-quantile models with application to poverty mapping

Over the last decade there has been growing demand for estimates of population characteristics at small area level. Unfortunately, cost constraints in the design of sample surveys lead to small sample sizes within these areas and as a result direct estimation, using only the survey data, is inappropriate since it yields estimates with unacceptable levels of precision. Small area models are designed to tackle the small sample size problem. The most popular class of models for small area estimation is random effects models that include random area effects to account for between area variations. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow for outlier robust inference. An alternative approach to small area estimation that is based on the use of M-quantile models was recently proposed by Chambers and Tzavidis (Biometrika 93(2):255–268, 2006) and Tzavidis and Chambers (Robust prediction of small area means and distributions. Working paper, 2007). Unlike traditional random effects models, M-quantile models do not depend on strong distributional assumption and automatically provide outlier robust inference. In this paper we illustrate for the first time how M-quantile models can be practically employed for deriving small area estimates of poverty and inequality. The methodology we propose improves the traditional poverty mapping methods in the following ways: (a) it enables the estimation of the distribution function of the study variable within the small area of interest both under an M-quantile and a random effects model, (b) it provides analytical, instead of empirical, estimation of the mean squared error of the M-quantile small area mean estimates and (c) it employs a robust to outliers estimation method. The methodology is applied to data from the 2002 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) in Albania for estimating (a) district level estimates of the incidence of poverty in Albania, (b) district level inequality measures and (c) the distribution function of household per-capita consumption expenditure in each district. Small area estimates of poverty and inequality show that the poorest Albanian districts are in the mountainous regions (north and north east) with the wealthiest districts, which are also linked with high levels of inequality, in the coastal (south west) and southern part of country. We discuss the practical advantages of our methodology and note the consistency of our results with results from previous studies. We further demonstrate the usefulness of the M-quantile estimation framework through design-based simulations based on two realistic survey data sets containing small area information and show that the M-quantile approach may be preferable when the aim is to estimate the small area distribution function.     

环境影响评价听证程序研究

作为公众参与的重要形式之一——听证会在我国行政管理模式中逐渐为政府所适用。但听证程序立法的缺失与不足,直接影响了环境影响评价行政许可行为的实施效果。从听证程序与环境行政决策关系人手,通过分析听证程序在行政决策中的作用,提出改革听证程序类型、确定听证程序的拘束力和建立保障制度等建议。