Online Poker Tilt Scale (OPTS): creation and validation of a tilt assessment in a French population

Tilt in poker implies a deviation from an individual’s usual playing style, at a strategic, emotional and behavioural level. It is a specific characteristic of poker, which can affect all kinds of players with varying degrees of frequency. In addition, tilt could be a transitional form of pathological gambling behaviour and a gateway to addiction. The main objective of this research is therefore the design and validation of a measuring scale for tilt episode frequency in an online poker gamblers’ group. Twenty-one items based on the literature and interviews with 10 poker players were created. An online self-administered questionnaire was completed by 263 poker players to validate this scale. The mean age of the sample was 26.7 (SD = 4.45). The Online Poker Tilt Scale (OPTS) consists of 17 items and is the first validated tool for measuring the frequency of tilt episodes associated with online poker. It is composed of two factors: ‘emotional and behavioural tilt’ and ‘cognitive tilt’. Tilt seems to be an essential part of understanding online poker behaviour. This tool will enable researchers studying online poker addiction to perform research on the mechanisms and processes that lead to tilt and its consequences.     

Social impacts evaluation and insider-outsider paradigm: Floodwater spreading project on the Gareh-Bygone plain as an illustrative case

Selection of the appropriate social impact evaluation approach has become an important issue in agricultural and rural development projects in developing countries. The aim of this research was to use the lens of insider-outsider or mutual social impact assessment approach to assess the social impacts of floodwater spreading project (FWSP) on the Gareh-Bygone plain, Iran. A survey methodology with systematic sampling techniques was used to select 138 households as insider group in four villages’ of the Gareh-Bygone plain which is covered by FWSP. Furthermore, key person interview was used to assess the viewpoints of experts (outsider group) who had close, ongoing involvement with the project. Result indicated that the experts’ viewpoints were more positive towards social impacts of the project. Whereas, the project had some negative and positive social impacts from the local people point of view.     

Validation of the Australian Midwifery Standards Assessment Tool (AMSAT): A tool to assess midwifery competence

Background

There is no current validated clinical assessment tool to measure the attainment of midwifery student competence in the midwifery practice setting. The lack of a valid assessment tool has led to a proliferation of tools and inconsistency in assessment of, and feedback on student learning.

Competing Values Framework: A useful tool to define the predominant culture in a maternity setting in Australia

Objective

To identify the predominant culture of an organisation which could then assess readiness for change.

The Use of Simulation to Reduce the Domain of “Black Swans” with Application to Hurricane Impacts to Power Systems

Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans. In this article, we show how a simulation model can be used to identify previously unknown potentially extreme events that if not identified and treated could occur as black swans. We show that by manipulating a verified and validated model used to predict the impacts of hazards on a system of interest, we can identify hazard conditions not previously experienced that could lead to impacts much larger than any previous level of impact. This makes these potential black swan events known and allows risk managers to more fully consider them. We demonstrate this method using a model developed to evaluate the effect of hurricanes on energy systems in the United States; we identify hurricanes with potentially extreme impacts, storms well beyond what the historic record suggests is possible in terms of impacts.     

Risk Assessment of Human Listeriosis from Semisoft Cheeses Made from Raw Sheep's Milk in Lazio and Tuscany (Italy)

Semisoft cheese made from raw sheep's milk is traditionally and economically important in southern Europe. However, raw milk cheese is also a known vehicle of human listeriosis and contamination of sheep cheese with Listeria monocytogenes has been reported. In the present study, we have developed and applied a quantitative risk assessment model, based on available evidence and challenge testing, to estimate risk of invasive listeriosis due to consumption of an artisanal sheep cheese made with raw milk collected from a single flock in central Italy. In the model, contamination of milk may originate from the farm environment or from mastitic animals, with potential growth of the pathogen in bulk milk and during cheese ripening. Based on the 48‐day challenge test of a local semisoft raw sheep's milk cheese we found limited growth only during the initial phase of ripening (24 hours) and no growth or limited decline during the following ripening period. In our simulation, in the baseline scenario, 2.2% of cheese servings are estimated to have at least 1 colony forming unit (CFU) per gram. Of these, 15.1% would be above the current E.U. limit of 100 CFU/g (5.2% would exceed 1,000 CFU/g). Risk of invasive listeriosis per random serving is estimated in the 10^?12 range (mean) for healthy adults, and in the 10^?10 range (mean) for vulnerable populations. When small flocks (10–36 animals) are combined with the presence of a sheep with undetected subclinical mastitis, risk of listeriosis increases and such flocks may represent a public health risk.     

How Can Low‐income Countries Gain from a Framework Agreement on Climate Change? An Analysis with Integrated Assessment Modelling

By using the integrated assessment model RICE this article carries out a scenario analysis with different assumptions about international negotiations on climate change, in particular hypothesising about reduction in targets for greenhouse gas emissions, technology transfers and financial transfer programmes. It finds that, in terms of growth, developing countries and in particular sub‐Saharan Africa will benefit from agreements that reduce the level of pollution and promote technological diffusion. Moreover, when developed countries are subject to emissions limits and poor regions have no such commitments, financial transfers from rich to developing countries for adaptation and mitigation enhance pro‐poor growth and help the effectiveness of poor countries in reducing emissions.     

Understanding the relationship between social change and its impacts: The experience of rural land use change in south-eastern Australia

This study investigated socio-economic impacts of land use change, giving explicit attention to the relationships between independently observed land use change and associated socio-economic changes, perceived land use change and socio-economic change, attributed cause of change, and experienced impacts of change. Using a case study region in south-east Australia, we examined the impacts of growth in use of land for dairy farming, cropping, blue gum plantations and rural residential development on (i) rural population trends, and (ii) the amount and nature of employment available in the study region. Perceptions and impacts of change were assessed using multiple qualitative and quantitative methods. Results demonstrate that local residents were not always aware of the extent and nature of land use change, and had difficulty attributing social changes and their impacts to the land use changes that underlie them. Furthermore, the felt impacts of land use change appeared dependent on a person's awareness of that change, and on their beliefs about the causes of social change. These findings highlight avenues for theoretical development to better specify the processes by which social change processes are experienced as human impacts. The findings also have implications for land use policy and social impact assessment, illustrating the importance of understanding both perceived and actual social change.     

“营改增”政策试点的市场初步评估

会计市场咨询表明,＂营改增＂政策是一个相当积极的信号,对于上海行业细分和服务外包的发展、尤其是总部经济的发展有重大的推动作用。但从政策实施的实际效果看：首先受益的是制造业服务业分离企业,部分服务企业实际税负尚未降低;部分中资企业对于政策的了解较为局限,不懂得如何从＂营改增＂中获益;没有完整会计账册的小微企业无法享受增值税抵扣带来的税负减轻,反而由此在同业竞争中与大中企业相比丧失了部分议价竞争能力。针对上述问题,应采取相应的对策措施逐步加以解决。     

A lattice of participation: reflecting on examples of children's and young people's collective engagement in influencing social welfare policies and practices

The article introduces four case studies from Wales, France and Finland and explores the situated, intergenerational and dynamic nature of collective participation in child welfare settings. Collective participation is conceived of as a process of engagement in which children and young people have some influence over the initiation or direction of a project; and as seeking a product, or outcome. The case studies represent a range of forms of collective engagement and highlight some key resources which supported children's participation (communicative spaces, time, money, knowledge, social position, attitudes, social networks, institutional commitment, equipment, food and transport). Challenges encountered in achieving effective participation in different nations within Europe are also identified, related to generation barriers and the distribution of resources. These elements are used to construct a lattice of participation: a model for conceptualising children and young people's collective engagement in participatory projects. The model provides a tool for visualising how, at different stages of a project, actors (children, young facilitators, adults and institutions) exercise influence by directing the use of different resources, such as finance and time. It invites reflection on why influence is limited in some stages of a participatory project, and how it is supported in other stages.