长江流域的消费函数:基于非稳定面板数据的分析

运用面板单位根与面板协整方法研究长江流域的消费函数。基于10省(市)1981-2003年的宏观消费与收入的面板数据,研究发现消费与收入存在显著的面板协整关系,边际消费倾向也非常稳定,稳定在0.7-0.85之间。为此,应采取鼓励消费的政策,从而促进经济长期增长。     

Assessing a minimum pension guarantee for the voluntary IPS in Turkey

The returns from individual account pension plans are subject to fluctuations in capital markets. This increases income uncertainty for the beneficiary and exposes individuals to the risk of fluctuations in the economy in general and the stock market in particular. A minimum pension guarantee is a way to avoid this pitfall by providing a minimum annuity regardless of the actual investment performance of individual accounts. In this article, we present a cost analysis of a minimum benefit guarantee mechanism for the voluntary Individual Pension System in Turkey. We examine the cost estimates and the probability of providing guaranteed payments under various economic and demographic assumptions.     

农民增收是"三个代表"的具体实践

增加农民收入是“三个代表”的必然要求 ,是实践“三个代表”最生动、最具体的体现 ,造成农民增收缓慢的原因是多方面的 ,但根本原因还是农村党的基层组织和干部队伍方面存在问题。要加强党的基层组织建设 ,提高农村干部队伍的素质 ;以结构调整为突破口 ;发展产业化经营 ,发挥企业家带动农户的作用 ;发育农村的市场体系 ;增加对农业基础设施的投入 ;尽快实施农村费改税 ,千方百计增加农民收入。     

胡绳研究回顾与展望

学术界对胡绳的研究主要集中于其生平、学术总体定位、近代史和党史领域的贡献、马克思主义理论宣传等方面，并取得了一定的成果，但已有研究还难称系统深入。胡绳研究无论从深度还是广度上都有巨大的开拓空间，胡绳在当代学术思想史上的重要意义应该引起研究者的重视，他为我们留下的精神财富值得进一步深入发掘。     

Explaining Italian “exceptionalism” and its end: Minimum income from neglect to hyper-politicization

Traditionally at the margins of the political debate, minimum income protection has recently become a key issue in Italian politics. After decades of social and political “neglect” letting Italy the only European country (with Greece) still lacking an anti-poverty minimum income safety net in the 2010s, finally a national programme called Inclusion Income was introduced in 2018, then replaced by a more robustly financed scheme, the Citizenship Income in 2019. The introduction of these new programmes was the object of an intense political debate, which raises two main puzzles. Why a policy field characterized by the low political resources of would be beneficiaries and low incidence on the overall welfare budget has become so important in the political debate? How did it occur in Italy, where minimum income protection had been absent in political discourses for at least five decades after World War II? To answer these questions, this article first elaborates a novel theoretical framework which combines the main properties of socio-political demand and political supply in order to explain the scope and direction of minimum income reforms. Second, it provides an analytically oriented reconstruction of MIS policy trajectory in Italy in the three different phases: the phase of MIS “neglect” (1948–1992) characterized by inertia; the period of political “contentiousness” (1993–2012), marked by attempts of path departure followed by policy reversals; the more recent phase leading to the introduction and institutionalization of a MIS. Third, the article provides a theoretically framed interpretation of the overall MIS trajectory in Italy.     

The intergenerational transmission of income mobility between mothers and their young adult daughters: The mediating role of their daughters' educational attainment

This study examines whether the daughters' educational attainment mediates the intergenerational transmission of economic mobility between mothers and their young adult daughters. To create mother–daughter dyads, two data sets were combined: The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 79 for Children and Young Adults (NLSY79 CY). A total of 2,456 dyads were included for analysis. We used a mediation model to explore the relationship between mothers' income and their young adult daughters' income. Mothers' income was associated with their young adult daughters' educational attainment and income. The mediation model indicated partial mediation of the relationship between mothers' income and their young adult daughters' income via their young adult daughters' educational attainment. Addressing issues of income inequality among mothers may serve as a buffer against the low upward mobility across generations for their young adult daughters raised by low-income mothers. It is imperative to provide programs and financial assistance for mothers to bolster their income and thereby their daughters' educational attainment and income in young adulthood and therefore improve economic mobility from mothers to daughters.     

Is the BasicsCard “shaming” Aboriginal people? Exploring the differing responses to welfare quarantining in Cape York

As part of the Cape York Welfare Reform Trial (CYWRT), which has been running in the remote Aboriginal towns of Aurukun, Hope Vale, Mossman Gorge and Coen since 2008, Family Responsibilities Commissioners have the unprecedented ability to quarantine welfare payments. Critics claim this “BasicsCard,” which cannot be spent on alcohol, tobacco, pornography or gambling, brings shame to Aboriginal people – marking them as dependants, deemed incapable of responsible spending. Evaluations of the CYWRT paint a more complicated picture. While many of the “spectators” of the CYWRT report “welfare reform stigma,” the “subjects” themselves are more positive. This paper draws on ethnographic research in Hope Vale to argue that these categories overlap with loosely defined, porous social groups that developed during the town's mission past, described as the “engaged” and “embedded” Hope Valers, respectively. The engaged group tends to be more aware of and sensitive to the views of the dominant society and to subscribe to its “ideology of respectability.” Meanwhile, the latter group tends to adhere to a more egalitarian “ideology of relatedness,” and do not experience the shame, even when their own welfare is quarantined, because the behaviours that trigger quarantining are normalised within their highly circumscribed domain.     

基于小波分析的石油价格长期趋势预测方法及其实证研究

本文将小波方法引入到油价长期趋势的预测中,利用小波多尺度分析的功能,提出了一种可以较为准确地根据油价时序列预测其未来长期走势的方法。这种方法的优点在于可以准确地提取油价的长期趋势,从总体上把握油价的非线性波动特征,从而能够很好地利用油价时间序列的历史数据,开展对未来一段时期内的多步预测。实证研究中,对Brent油价开展了时间跨度为1年的趋势预测,并将预测结果与ARIMA、GARCH、Holtwinters等方法得到的结果进行了比较,表明了基于小波分析的长期趋势预测法的预测能力是其他方法所不能比拟的,反映了本文所建立的石油价格长期趋势预测方法的有效性。     

非同类企业竞争与合作策略收益模型及风险分析

在比较同类企业竞争策略模型与合作策略模型的基础上,讨论了价格的信息作用,分析了合作策略收益更大和风险并不随之增加的原因。然后以现代决策理念为出发点,探讨了企业最大利润与企业条件的关系,提出了与企业单位变动成本和生产能力条件相适应的合理最大利润的概念,对“理性企业的假设”赋予了“追求与企业条件相适应的合理最大利润”的新含义。据此设计了非同类企业产量分配函数,建立了适用性更广的非同类企业合作策略最佳收益模型,并给出了随市场价格变化的企业最佳应对策略。最后用1个算例来直观体现合作策略的优势。     

Optimal Dynamic Order Scheduling under Capacity Constraints Given Demand‐Forecast Evolution

We consider a manufacturer without any frozen periods in production schedules so that it can dynamically update the schedules as the demand forecast evolves over time until the realization of actual demand. The manufacturer has a fixed production capacity in each production period, which impacts the time to start production as well as the production schedules. We develop a dynamic optimization model to analyze the optimal production schedules under capacity constraint and demand‐forecast updating. To model the evolution of demand forecasts, we use both additive and multiplicative versions of the martingale model of forecast evolution. We first derive expressions for the optimal base stock levels for a single‐product model. We find that manufacturers located near their market bases can realize most of their potential profits (i.e., profit made when the capacity is unlimited) by building a very limited amount of capacity. For moderate demand uncertainty, we also show that it is almost impossible for manufacturers to compensate for the increase in supply–demand mismatches resulting from long delivery lead times by increasing capacity, making lead‐time reduction a better alternative than capacity expansion. We then extend the model to a multi‐product case and derive expressions for the optimal production quantities for each product given a shared capacity constraint. Using a two‐product model, we show that the manufacturer should utilize its capacity more in earlier periods when the demand for both products is more positively correlated.