Data tilting for time series

Summary. We develop a general methodology for tilting time series data. Attention is focused on a large class of regression problems, where errors are expressed through autoregressive processes. The class has a range of important applications and in the context of our work may be used to illustrate the application of tilting methods to interval estimation in regression, robust statistical inference and estimation subject to constraints. The method can be viewed as 'empirical likelihood with nuisance parameters'.     

Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes

Summary. The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed.     

法律环境的不确定性制约我国股指期货的推出

我国股指期货推出的法律环境面临诸多不确定因素,一方面,《证券法》、新《期货交易管理条例》、《关于审理期货纠纷案件若干问题的规定》、《刑法》和新《破产法》、《中国金融期货交易所交易规则》的颁布和修订,为强化市场监管提供了强有力的法律依据;另一方面,现有法律体系在交易所规则的效力、会计制度、税收制度、净额结算、交易所的性质、透支交易、交易信息的送达、期货公司的举证责任、涉外期货等方面规定不明确,应对相关法律进行修改、梳理和完善,并在刑法典中增加虚假陈述罪、非法经营期货业务罪、泄漏内幕信息罪和挪用期货保证金罪等内容。     

商业银行非财务信用风险分析

传统的信用风险评估方法仅仅从贷款企业角度来评价商业银行所面临的信用风险,而且评价企业信用风险时,也集中在贷款企业的财务风险评价上,忽略了银行本身存、贷款结构和风险状况对信用风险的影响,造成了评估主体缺位。作为对众多文献的补充,从贷款企业非财务风险因素、银行风险因素和宏观经济环境风险因素三个方面进行了信用风险因素分析,完善了商业银行信用风险评估指标体系。     

Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

The Establishment and Application of a Labor Quality Index: The Case of Taiwan’s Manufacturing Industry

The labor quality index (LQI) not only serves as an important reference for monitoring the progress of the sustainable development of a country, but it can also serve as an important parameter for economic analysis. To compile such an index for Taiwan, we conducted two large-scale surveys of 1000 major enterprises and 844 union leaders, respectively, to determine the appropriate weights for each key factor. We also searched for all the relevant statistics that were used to calculate the weighted sum of the 25 sub-indexes, in order to compile a LQI for Taiwan’s manufacturing industries covering the period from 1990-2000. Our calculations show that this LQI rose from 80.2 in 1990 to 117.5 in 2000, which reflected an impressive 37.3% increase in just one decade. This rate of growth has, however, been slowing down since 1997. Our results indicate that the LQI provides a valuable indicator for monitoring the enhancement of labor quality in this society.     

对“资本限量决策”方法的改进

企业面临的一类投资决策是所谓的资本限量决策,文献1给出两种解法:获利指数法和净现值法。究其实质,净现值法是一种枚举法或互斥化法,该方法可以获得最优解,但当项目个数较多时,互斥化的组合方案数很大,难以实用;计算加权获利指数工作量又很大。本文提出用差量效率指标排序法予以改进。     

深圳证券交易所不同指数收益率的波动比较

股票价格指数的波动的大小通常代表了它的风险程度,研究股指的波动对风险管理、投资组合以及价格预测有着十分重要的意义。文章采用时间序列分析方法,对深圳证券交易所的三种价格指数建立GARCH模型,并对这三种指数的波动率进行比较。     

税收征管效率综合评价指标体系研究

税收征管效率是评价税务机关工作效果的主要指标,而评价指标体系的确定是科学评价税收征管效率的基础和重点。本文分析了税收征管效率的内涵及外延,通过实证建立了税收征管效率的综合评价指标体系。     

优选方案定量评价模型研究

在确定评价指标体系的基础上，如何对若干事物或方案进行选优是一个十分有意义的问题．作者利用模糊多目标决策对此进行研究，并通过实例说明该方法的有效性与实用性．