中国股票市场价格波动特征分析

在股票市场中最令人捉摸不定,也最具有吸引力的是波动不已的股票价格。文章对中国股票市场价格波动的分析是从1997年9月展开至2002年10月,其间恰逢中国股市经历了一段从牛市的繁荣到熊市的萧条的过程,两种泾渭分明的市场氛围恰好提供了一个深入研究股票市场价格波动特征的有利契机。遵循经济控制论研究的思路,文章采用了理论分析、市场交易数据的实证研究等技术手段对中国股票市场价格波动进行了研究,通过运用经济控制论的方法建立理论模型,以上海股市和深圳股市的综合指数为样本,对中国股票市场系统本身的波动特征和稳定性进行了量化分析。     

学校早期读写训练对儿童读写成绩的影响

利用儿童家庭一学校早期语言与识字能力系列测验对每个目标儿童语言与识字能力发展进行了评定，并解释了这些测量结果与儿童学校早期语言与识字测量指标之间的关系。结果表明：(1)儿童丰富的同伴关系与词汇量、应变识字能力、下定义能力和理解力有关；(2)教师语言的丰富性有助于儿童语言与识字能力发展；(3)识字课程变量与三岁儿童的应变识字成绩和四岁儿童词汇量和故事理解有关；(4)影响儿童语言与识字能力的因素不是单一的，而是一个因素群。     

现代化的扩散与乡村政治文化的变迁——以改革开放以来安徽和县浏塘村为例

文章遵循从基本理论到实证调查再到一般性结论的研究路径,从实证的角度去描述安徽一个普通村庄因现代化的扩散而导致的乡村政治文化的变迁,从而试图说明现代化的扩散对乡村政治文化变迁的影响。     

Tree health mapping with multispectral remote sensing data at UC Davis, California

Tree health is a critical parameter for evaluating urban ecosystem health and sustainability. Traditionally, this parameter has been derived from field surveys. We used multispectral remote sensing data and GIS techniques to determine tree health at the University of California, Davis. The study area (363 ha) contained 8,962 trees of 215 species. Tree health conditions were mapped for each physiognomic type at two scales: pixel and whole tree. At the pixel scale, each tree pixel within the tree crown was classified as either healthy or unhealthy based on vegetation index values. At the whole tree scale, raster based statistical analysis was used to calculate tree health index which is the ratio of healthy pixels to entire tree pixels within the tree crown. The tree was classified as healthy if the index was greater than 70%. Accuracy was checked against a random sample of 1,186 trees. At the whole tree level, 86% of campus trees were classified as healthy with 88% mapping accuracy. At the pixel level, 86% of the campus tree cover was classified as healthy. This tree health evaluation approach allows managers to identify the location of unhealthy trees for further diagnosis and treatment. It can be used to track the spread of disease and monitor seasonal or annual changes in tree health. Also, it provides tree health information that is fundamental to modeling and analysis of the environmental, social, and economic services produced by urban forests.     

常德市区域可持续发展评价指标体系构建

区域可持续发展能力的评价 ,是实现区域可持续发展的关键与前提。利用层次分析法和主成分分析法 ,构建常德市区域可持续发展能力的评价指标体系 ,从总量规模和结构协调两个方面对常德市区域可持续发展能力进行评价 ,可为常德市区域可持续发展的实施提供科学的依据     

An alternative to farmer age as an indicator of life-cycle stage: The case for a farm family age index

In studies of farming, the age of the principal decision-maker (PDM) has been associated with numerous farm structural and managerial features and has been widely accepted as a good indicator of the influence of life-cycle factors on decision-making. As such, it has become an important aspect of many quantitative studies of agricultural change. However, contemporary studies of family farming demonstrate that the concept of a single PDM in family farms is becoming an anachronism as alternative enterprises, pluriactivity and the scale of family farms force more diffuse management/operating systems. This raises questions concerning whether the age of the PDM can still be taken as representative of farm structure, strategy or life-cycle stage? Using a study conducted in the Grampian Mountains region of Scotland in 2003 this note investigates the impact of using an alternative index—compiled by averaging the age of family members working on the farm. It suggests that PDM age is a relatively poor indicator of farm structural and managerial features compared to a family age index and calls for researchers to think about alternative approaches to measuring ‘age’ as an indicator.     

学科建设“诊断”的指标体系与评价方法

该文通过对学科建设内容的研究分析，运用模糊数学理论，建立了分层次模糊综合评判模型及其技术方法，有效地解决了对学科建设复杂因素定量化评价的问题。研究中创新性地提出学科建设优度的概念和计算公式，用来对学科建设的状况进行定量分析与评价，有利于找准学科存在的问题与不足，明确努力的方向，达到“以评促建设，以评促改革，以评促发展”的评价目的。在确定评价指标体系和指标分级标准的基础上，应用分层次模糊综合评判模型对不同研究领域的学科进行综合评价，其评价结果较充分地验证了该模型的科学性和实践性，对推进学科建设具有积极的意义。     

用数学函数分析法对统计指数因素分析的进一步改良——谈综合指数体系的缺陷与消除

指数因素分析法是一种重要的统计分析方法,而其分析结果的正确与否取决于所用的指数体系。利用传统的综合指数体系从事因素分析虽方便,使用,但也存在一些不足。本文提出用其他指数体系进行因素分析的思想,以弥补传统综合指数体系在因素分析中的缺陷。     

基于层次分析法与模糊评价的学科水平评估

在学科建设中,学科水平评估可以采用专家咨询的方法,分别从学术队伍、科学研究、教学与人才培养和工作条件四个方面设计学科水平评估指标体系,运用层次分析法确定指标权重系数,针对评估指标的模糊性,建立学科水平评估模糊综合评价模型,并通过实例分析和计算,证明该学科水平评估体系合理、有效、可行。     

CCI与中国证券市场走势的实证分析

美英等国的消费者信心指数(CCI)对股市指数收益有很重要的影响力。为探讨CCI与中国证券市场走势的相关关系,通过两类模型对1999年10月~2004年8月间我国股市收益与CCI之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:CCI对深沪五个指数的走势有显著的解释与预测效果,但对我国的B股市场似乎没有显著性。