高质量发展指标体系构建及测度——以河北省为例

我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。准确测度经济发展现状,需要构建高质量发展指标体系。根据高质量发展的内涵,构建了包含6个一级指标和24个二级指标构成的高质量发展指标体系,并以河北省为例运用2005-2016年经济运行数据进行实证测算。结果表明,河北省经济发展质量总体呈波动上升态势,但各维度发展并不均衡,经济活力和生态友好两个维度指标持续向好,而创新驱动、结构优化、民生改善这三个维度指标都出现了下滑和较大波动的情况,成为制约高质量发展的短板。     

Using Bayesian Techniques for Data Pooling in Regional Payroll Forecasting

This article adapts to the regional level a multicountry technique recently used by Garcia-Ferrer, Highfield, Palm, and Zellner (1987) and extended by Zellner and Hong (1987) to forecast the growth rates in gross national product across nine countries. This forecasting methodology is applied to the regional level by modeling payroll formation in seven Ohio metropolitan areas. We compare the forecasting performance of these procedures with that of a ridge estimator and find that the ridge estimator produces forecasts equal to or better than those from the newly proposed estimators. We conclude that the ridge estimator, which does not reference the pooled data information introduced by the newly proposed techniques, may serve as a benchmark against which to judge the relative importance of this kind of information in improving forecasts.     

Non-parametric estimation of data dimensionality prior to data compression: the case of the human development index

In many applications in applied statistics, researchers reduce the complexity of a data set by combining a group of variables into a single measure using a factor analysis or an index number. We argue that such compression loses information if the data actually have high dimensionality. We advocate the use of a non-parametric estimator, commonly used in physics (the Takens estimator), to estimate the correlation dimension of the data prior to compression. The advantage of this approach over traditional linear data compression approaches is that the data do not have to be linearised. Applying our ideas to the United Nations Human Development Index, we find that the four variables that are used in its construction have dimension 3 and the index loses information.     

Extending dual multiple factor analysis to categorical tables

This paper describes a proposal for the extension of the dual multiple factor analysis (DMFA) method developed by Lê and Pagès 15 to the analysis of categorical tables in which the same set of variables is measured on different sets of individuals. The extension of DMFA is based on the transformation of categorical variables into properly weighted indicator variables, in a way analogous to that used in the multiple factor analysis of categorical variables. The DMFA of categorical variables enables visual comparison of the association structures between categories over the sample as a whole and in the various subsamples (sets of individuals). For each category, DMFA allows us to obtain its global (considering all the individuals) and partial (considering each set of individuals) coordinates in a factor space. This visual analysis allows us to compare the set of individuals to identify their similarities and differences. The suitability of the technique is illustrated through two applications: one using simulated data for two groups of individuals with very different association structures and the other using real data from a voting intention survey in which some respondents were interviewed by telephone and others face to face. The results indicate that the two data collection methods, while similar, are not entirely equivalent.     

Indicator development as a site of collective imagination? The case of European Commission policies on the circular economy

ABSTRACT

In recent years the concept of the circular economy gained prominence in EU policy-making. The circular economy promotes a future in which linear ‘make-use-dispose’ cultures are replaced by more circular models. In this paper, we use the concept of sociotechnical imaginaries to ask how an imaginary of circularity has been assembled and stabilized, which imaginative resources were drawn on, and how goals, priorities, benefits and risks haven been merged with discourses of innovation, sustainability and growth. Drawing on policy documents and interviews with policy officers of the European Commission, we argue that the monitoring framework and indicator development function as a site collective imagination in which desirable ‘circular’ futures are co-produced. These futures are imagined to provide novel opportunities for the private sector and to generate jobs and economic growth while at the same time improving the natural environment as measured by selected environmental indicators.     

教师课堂教学质量综合评价方法研究

教师课堂教学质量综合评价以课堂教学质量评价指标体系为基础,综合评价方法主要包括指标加权平均法和模糊综合评价法。难点是评价指标的设计和量化处理,权集的构造。对评价结果的分析可采用绝对评价(等级判断),相对评价,动态评价(个体差异的评价)。     

服务型政府建设中的绩效评估

政府绩效评估对于服务型政府建设具有重要的意义,它有助于落实服务型政府服务责任、有助于贯彻和落实科学发展观和有助于满足不同民众的服务需求。服务型政府绩效评估主体应多元化,尤其要突出公民作为最重要的评估主体性质,同时还要重视独立、客观的民间评估组织的参与,绩效评估指标的设计要遵循与时俱进的、客观的、合理的和可行性原则,应着重从经济调节、市场监管、社会管理、公共服务和社会经济发展协调五个维度来设计具体的绩效评估指标。     

小康社会独立指标评价体系及评价标准

党的十六大提出了全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标。基于此,我们以1995年国家制定的《全国小康生活水平基本标准》中的原有指标为基础,综合考察社会各方面因素,选取一些新的宏观指标,通过指标间的相关分析,找出不相关的指标或不相关指标组合,建立一套科学、系统和具有时代特征的指标评价体系。同时,以我国社会的发展实际为基础确定相应的标准,用于衡量"全面建设小康社会"的实现进程和进行预测。     

Social inclusion,exclusion, and well‐being in Australia: meaning and measurement

This paper begins by examining the social inclusion agenda that formed the centrepiece of the social policy agenda of the Australian Government between 2007 and 2013. It discusses several features of the agenda, including its objectives (as articulated by the government) and some of the administrative and bureaucratic mechanisms that were put in place to assist with its development and implementation. Although no formal assessment of the impact of the agenda is attempted, some of the ways in which such an agenda could make a difference are identified. The paper then summarises the social inclusion indicator framework developed by the Australian Social Inclusion Unit with assistance and advice from the Australian Social Inclusion Board, and compares its structure and content with the frameworks developed by two of Australia's leading social research institutes. Finally, data from two national surveys of poverty and social exclusion are used to examine recent changes in social exclusion and the association between the severity of exclusion and levels of subjective well‐being. These latter results show clearly that subjective well‐being is consistently lower among those who experience the greatest degree of social exclusion, suggesting that exclusion as identified and measured reflects external constraints rather than internal preferences.     

基础设施建设PPP项目关键绩效指标识别研究

中国城市公用事业的民营化改革是当前中国的重要政策,PPP模式被广泛应用到中国的各类基础设施建设中。在实际的工作中政府却缺乏行之有效的关键绩效指标体系(Key Performance Indicators,KPI),不能够为项目的绩效考核提供可以依据的标准,最终致使项目的政府监管缺位,绩效无法跟踪,项目产出受到影响,社会公众的福利难以得到保障。文章针对此问题,在以往研究和问卷调查的基础上,运用结构方程模型对48个绩效指标进行进一步分析,为政府监管PPP项目识别出41个KPI,并分析了指标分组之间的关系,对中国的基础设施建设和运营提供了保障,为PPP项目绩效提高提供了可供参考的重要依据。