基于病态指数循环分析的评价指标筛选研究

为了避免指标集较高的信息重叠扭曲综合评价结果，已有研究通过剔除相关程度高的少部分（主要是两两）指标中相对不重要的指标，虽可保证指标集内少部分指标间的信息重叠不高，但却无法保证指标集的整体信息重叠不高。为此，本研究提出一种新的评价指标筛选方法。其创新与特色主要有三：一是根据一个指标剔除后指标集病态指数减小的幅度越大，该指标对指标集整体信息重叠贡献越大的思路，剔除对剩余指标整体信息重叠贡献最大的指标，循环往复直至剩余指标的整体信息重叠不高为止，克服已有研究无法高效率地降低指标集整体信息重叠及不能测度剩余指标整体信息重叠水平的不足；二是通过剔除相关程度高的任意两个剩余指标中相对不重要的一个指标，避免指标集整体信息重叠不高而个别指标间信息重叠却依然较高；三是通过指标集病态指数减少比例与指标剔除数量的比值表示指标集整体信息重叠降低的效率，检验信息重叠指标筛选方法的相对合理性，弥补已有研究缺乏相关检验标准的不足。最后，通过一组科技评价指标的筛选说明上述方法的可行性及有效性。     

基于信息可替代性的评价指标筛选研究

提出一种指标筛选方法,旨在筛选出对评价结果影响显著、反映信息重叠程度低的评价指标。以相对离散系数作为指标的信息含量,依据提出的累计信息贡献率标准删除信息含量明显偏小的指标进行指标的初筛,克服现有研究仅利用相对离散系数进行指标筛选的不足。借鉴聚类分析的思想,取初筛后保留下来的一个指标与其余各指标构成Person相关系数平方的均值,反映该指标的信息可被其余全部指标替代的程度。通过信息可替代性标准剔除信息可替代性较大的指标,保证最终被保留的指标间反映的信息重叠程度低,克服现有研究仅通过两个指标间的相关性筛选指标难以有效降低评价指标集信息重叠的不足。此外,针对剔除信息重叠的指标与剔除对评价结果影响不显著的指标何者优先为宜的问题,提出了显著再相关的指标筛选标准。最后,通过一个实例说明指标筛选方法的可行性。     

The diagnostic accuracy of a composite index increases as the number of partitions of the components increases and when specific weights are assigned to each component

The aim of this work was to evaluate whether the number of partitions of index components and the use of specific weights for each component influence the diagnostic accuracy of a composite index. Simulation studies were conducted in order to compare the sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve (AUC) of indices constructed using equal number of components but different number of partitions for all components. Moreover, the odds ratio obtained from the univariate logistic regression model for each component was proposed as potential weight. The current simulation results showed that the sensitivity, specificity and AUC of an index increase as the number of partitions of components increases. However, the rate that the diagnostic accuracy increases is reduced as the number of partitions increases. In addition, it was found that the diagnostic accuracy of the weighted index developed using the proposed weights is higher compared with that of the corresponding un-weighted index. The use of large-scale index components and the use of effect size measures (i.e. odds ratios, ORs) of index components as potential weights are proposed in order to obtain indices with high diagnostic accuracy for a particular binary outcome.     

福建省贸易条件分析及其改善对策研究

采用拉斯帕尔氏公式对福建省初级产品和制成品两大类进出口产品贸易条件指数进行测度与分析,可以得出,福建省各类商品在不同时期的贸易条件表现出不同的态势。本文为此解析了影响福建省贸易条件变化的因素,并提出福建省在对外贸易过程中应积极推动产品结构调整、开拓新兴市场、加强周边地区合作、依靠技术进步等建议。     

Critical acceptance values and sample sizes of a variables sampling plan for very low fraction of defectives

Acceptance sampling plans are practical tools for quality control applications, which involve quality contracting on product orders between the vendor and the buyer. Those sampling plans provide the vendor and the buyer rules for lot sentencing while meeting their preset requirements on product quality. In this paper, we introduce a variables sampling plan for unilateral processes based on the one-sided process capability indices _CPU$C_{\mathrm{PU}}$ (or _CPL)$C_{\mathrm{PL}})$, to deal with lot sentencing problem with very low fraction of defectives. The proposed new sampling plan is developed based on the exact sampling distribution rather than approximation. Practitioners can use the proposed sampling plan to determine accurate number of product items to be inspected and the corresponding critical acceptance value, to make reliable decisions. We also tabulate the required sample size n$n$ and the corresponding critical acceptance value _C0$C_0$ for various α$\alpha$-risks, β$\beta$-risks, and the levels of lot or process fraction of defectives that correspond to acceptable and rejecting quality levels.     

西部大开发与重庆优势产业的选择

为了把重庆建设成为长江上游和西部地区的经济中心 ,使之成为我国新的经济增长极 ,就必须重视发展重庆的特色经济和优势产业     

Multi-level models can benefit from minimizing higher-order variations: an illustration using child malnutrition data

ABSTRACT

This study aims to measure the robustness of multi-level models designed for three anthropometric indices – height-for-age (HAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ) and weight-for-height (WHZ) Z-scores for estimating the childhood malnutrition indicators stunting, underweight and wasting in Bangladesh. The 2011 BDHS child malnutrition data have been used in developing multi-level models with and without incorporating specific contextual variables relating to lower administrative units extracted from the 2011 Bangladesh Population and Housing Census. The robustness of the models is examined through (i) testing significance of random effects corresponding to lower administrative units through selection criteria including conditional AIC, R-squared, and LRT; (ii) comparing multi-level model-based estimators to design-based estimators of child malnutrition indicators with their precision at division, district and sub-district levels; and (iii) assessing the impact of contextual variables in capturing higher-order administrative level variations. Findings reveal that the inclusion of important contextual variables helps capture variations at higher-level administrative units, and consequently assists in the selection of robust multi-level models which ultimately provide improved accuracy of estimated parameters. The findings support the application of lower administrative census information in developing a simpler multi-level model by minimizing higher-order variation.     

An improved sampling plan by variables inspection with consideration of process yield and quality loss

Repetitive group sampling (RGS) plan, a modified version of single sampling (SS) plan, has been shown to be more efficient than the SS plan for lot sentencing. However, because it does not consider the valuable sample information from preceding lots, that could reduce its sampling efficiency and discriminatory power. Therefore, this study proposes a modified-RGS plan by considering the quality history of preceding lots based on the C_pmk index. Additionally, the mathematical model for the plan parameters is formulated such that the objective function is to minimize the average sample number (ASN), and the required quality levels and risks as specified by producer and consumer are satisfied. The performance of the proposed plan is examined and compared with traditional sampling plans. Finally, an example is presented to illustrate its applicability.     

产业结构变动指标体系研究

论文采用实证性研究方法,分析发现通常使用的产业结构变动分析指标体系的缺陷,并提出针对性的解决思路:必须注意各相关指标的内在联系与相互依存条件;各国产业结构变动K值的比较必须联系各国的国情、以各国产业结构相似的发展阶段为前提。     

基础产业集团公司财务危机预警模型探讨

文章通过对基础产业集团公司合并报表所反映的财务比率进行实证分析,建立logout数学模型,计算集团公司出现财务危机的概率.模型实例计算结果表明:流动资产、总资产与经营活动现金净流量、总资产、净利润、主营业务收入等三项指标对财务危机的发生有显著性的影响,有较好的预测效果.