Bayesian,classical and hybrid methods of inference when one parameter value is special

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree of prior belief that the true value of the parameter lies in this interval. A clear justification of the practical importance of this problem is provided. The main difficulty with the standard Bayesian solution to this problem is discussed and, as a result, a pseudo-Bayesian solution is put forward based on determining lower limits for the posterior probability of the parameter lying in the special interval by means of a sensitivity analysis. Since it is not assumed that prior beliefs necessarily need to be expressed in terms of prior probabilities, nor that post-data probabilities must be Bayesian posterior probabilities, hybrid methods of inference are also proposed that are based on specific ways of measuring and interpreting the classical concept of significance. The various methods that are outlined are compared and contrasted at both a foundational level, and from a practical viewpoint by applying them to real data from meta-analyses that appeared in a well-known medical article.     

An asset-building agenda for the twenty-first century: giving families something to live for

Though studies have clearly illustrated that education is one of the primary paths to upward mobility, a growing body of research is beginning to show that the returns on education are determined more by initial wealth than innate ability and exerted effort in school. This accounting directly contradicts Americans’ understanding of the promise of the American Dream: a level playing field and a path towards a more prosperous future. Currently, this contradiction goes largely unchecked by researchers because of their reluctance to engage in a discussion about values. As a result, the mere discussion of wealth transfer, a policy about thriving, is seen as taboo, and we are left with conversations about how to provide the poor with enough merely to survive. However, in this paper, the conversation about wealth transfer is revived and articulated as an American idea consistent with American values. It goes on to offer Children’s Savings Accounts, in combination with a substantial progressive wealth transfer into these accounts, as a means of leveling the playing field and restoring education as an equalizer in society.     

加强大学生跨国交流中国际化的实践工作

当今社会对创新型人才、开放性人才、复合型人才的需求,特别是国际化人才的需求日益增强. 通过对在校大学生的调查,讨论了大学生国际化实践的概念和内涵,并在对欧美等国家大学生国际化实践策略分析探讨的基础上,提出了中国大学生国际化实践的目标、实施及长效机制等内容,从实际操作层面出发,着重研究了在当今情况下如何搭建大学生国际化实践这一平台.     

Bayesian comparison of private and common values in structural second-price auctions

Private and common values (CVs) are the two main competing valuation models in auction theory and empirical work. In the framework of second-price auctions, we compare the empirical performance of the independent private value (IPV) model to the CV model on a number of different dimensions, both on real data from eBay coin auctions and on simulated data. Both models fit the eBay data well with a slight edge for the CV model. However, the differences between the fit of the models seem to depend to some extent on the complexity of the models. According to log predictive score the IPV model predicts auction prices slightly better in most auctions, while the more robust CV model is much better at predicting auction prices in more unusual auctions. In terms of posterior odds, the CV model is clearly more supported by the eBay data.     

悲剧美感的消解：从元杂剧《赵氏孤儿》到电影《赵氏孤儿》

电影《赵氏孤儿》根据元代纪君祥的杂剧《赵氏孤儿大报仇》改编而成。元杂剧《赵氏孤儿》现有元刊本和明刊本传世，无论是以“孝”为主导的元刊本，还是以“忠”为纲的明刊本，都保持了“义”的思想，通过舍生取义的群体行为唤起我们崇高的悲剧美感，其道义担当精神是值得我们继承的。然而，电影《赵氏孤儿》狭隘地把当代意识等同于个人主义，颠覆了元明戏曲始终不变的“义”的思想内核，英雄群像坍塌，悲剧美感被消解。     

基于“一分为三”思想的文化价值观、文化习俗与早期创业活动关系探索

借鉴了"一分为三"的思想,试图澄清3个文化变量(价值观、习俗、二者的差异)之间的复杂关系,并且从理论上探讨其对早期创业活动的影响。基于"全球领导力和组织文化有效性"和"全球创业观察"两个数据库,实证研究发现,文化价值观和文化习俗对早期创业活动都有一定的解释能力,符合跨文化研究的主流结论;文化价值观和文化习俗之间呈负相关;文化价值观和文化习俗之间的差异,同样也影响着早期创业活动,符合"一分为三"的辩证思想。     

当代中国社会树典型活动的文化传统探析

当代中国社会树典型活动有着深厚的文化传统和思想渊源,作为一种权力运作方式,树典型活动主要源于大一统传统、道德教化传统、义务价值观传统和旌表传统。大一统传统是中国文化传统的一大特质,树典型活动源于大一统的需要;伦理规范与道德教化是中国文化传统的核心,道德教化传递着德治思维模式,是社会治理的重要方式,树典型活动是道德教化传统的延续;义务价值观形成于家庭本位的价值思想,规避权利而强调义务,是臣民价值观,当代中国树典型活动改造了义务价值观的传统,在重视义务的同时,对权利也更为重视;旌表制度是树典型活动在中国传统社会的制度化表达,通过对道德典型的彰显与标榜,达到倡导封建礼教,美化风俗,教化民众之目的。当代中国社会的树典型活动延续了旌表制度这一传统,在发挥社会主义核心价值体系的引领作用,构建社会主义和谐社会的过程中,应充分继承和发扬这些文化传统。     

中西方大学生饮食文化和价值观的比较研究

随着全球化进程的加速,中西方大学生之间的文化交流愈加频繁。饮食文化作为非语言交流文化的重要组成部分在中西方大学生交流中担任着重要的角色。比较中西方饮食文化在饮食技术体系方面和饮食基本观念两个方面的差别,分析受饮食文化影响的中西方大学生个人主义和集体主义两种不同的价值观念。解析了中西方大学生受不同价值观的影响在社会交往、思维方式、行为准则以及学习方式等方面产生的差异。深入研究这些文化差异可以帮助中西方大学生消除跨文化交流引起的误解和障碍。     

深化文化体制改革中“二个三”重要问题探析

我国文化体制改革的全面深化,要在重要领域和关键环节实现新突破,就必须正确处理“二个三”重要问题。一是在政府、市场、文化单位三种力量调处中,要着力促进政府调控、市场调节、单位自主运作的动态谐调;二是在权力、利益、价值三个向度调理中,要着力促进主流价值导向、利益合理调整、权力科学配置的互动协和。“二个三”建构的合力优化为文化科学发展提供强劲而深厚的动力支撑。     

湖南出土简帛的书法价值初探

湖南是迄今为止国内出土简牍数量最多、时代序列最完整、简帛书体资料最丰富的省份.湖南出土简帛的书法价值主要有:1)展现了战国楚系文字的原始面貌.2)提供了秦汉之际隶变过程中丰富多彩的秦隶书体.3)给隶书的成熟期提供了新的佐证.4)给东汉后期和三国魏晋的书法研究提供了全新的资料.5)给当代书法创作提供了高古生动的临摹范本.