Bayesian prediction of waiting times in stochastic models

The authors show how saddlepoint techniques lead to highly accurate approximations for Bayesian predictive densities and cumulative distribution functions in stochastic model settings where the prior is tractable, but not necessarily the likelihood or the predictand distribution. They consider more specifically models involving predictions associated with waiting times for semi‐Markov processes whose distributions are indexed by an unknown parameter θ. Bayesian prediction for such processes when they are not stationary is also addressed and the inverse‐Gaussian based saddlepoint approximation of Wood, Booth & Butler (1993) is shown to accurately deal with the nonstationarity whereas the normal‐based Lugannani & Rice (1980) approximation cannot, Their methods are illustrated by predicting various waiting times associated with M/M/q and M/G/1 queues. They also discuss modifications to the matrix renewal theory needed for computing the moment generating functions that are used in the saddlepoint methods.     

发展个体私营经济的思考

社会主义初级阶段论的提出与确立,社会主义市场经济论特别是所有制改革理论的形成与发展,为我国发展私营经济提供了可靠的理论依据,从实践标准看,发展个体私营经济符合“三个有利于”标准,能够增强国家的凝聚力。目前,要发展我国个体私营经济的关键是采取正确的政策取向,应促进个体私营企业数量上的发展和质量上的提高,调整产业政策促进个体私营企业生产经营水平的提高,还要加强对个体私营企业的各项行政法规管理     

关于大学教育的若干认识

随着高等教育改革的进一步发展,大学教育自身也呈现出新的发展动态。如何构建一个符合社会发展和高等教育发展,尤其是符合学生的主体发展需要的教育平台,充分体现大学教育在整个高等教育中的关键地位和重要作用,是当前教育改革的当务之急。     

2006年北京地区大学应届毕业生职业价值观调查研究

本研究旨在考察当代大学毕业生的择业意向与职业价值观。本研究以2006年北京地区大学应届毕业生为研究对象,使用自编的问卷调查了北京25所大学的425名应届毕业生。调查结果揭示,当代大学生看重的职业价值观呈现8因子的结构模型,同时本文探讨了影响大学生择业的因素,并以此为基础考察我国青年学生择业标准的变迁及其原因。最后,根据调查结果对学校、政府和企业提出了建议。     

新乡贤助推乡村振兴战略实现的路径研究

乡村振兴重在“人才振兴”,只有解决好了人的问题,乡村才能真正振兴,因而推动各类人才尤其是吸引新乡贤参与家乡各项事业发展,成为实现乡村振兴战略的客观要求。新乡贤作为实现乡村振兴战略的重要力量,在全面推进乡村振兴过程中对产业振兴、人才振兴、文化振兴、生态振兴和组织振兴等都发挥着积极作用,但在实践中暴露出一些突出问题,诸如对新乡贤认识定位不清晰、缺乏情感沟通、实践渠道受阻以及权益保障不到位等。为此,需要通过多种舆论宣传确保新乡贤“时刻挂念家乡”、加强日常情感联系推动新乡贤“经常回来走走”和注重多措并举鼓励支持新乡贤“共谋家乡发展”等实施路径,来不断提升新乡贤在乡村振兴中的工作实效性。     

马斯洛需要层次理论对大学生树立正确恋爱观的启示

马斯洛需要层次理论对大学生树立正确恋爱观在理论和实践上都具有借鉴意义。     

地区间个人收入差距的状况及特点(英文)

在地区收入差距的文献中,一直缺乏从个人收入角度出发的研究;而关于个人收入分配的研究,也很少考察地区差异。文章使用2005年全国1％人口普查数据,从个人收入角度描述了全国及（几种不同定义下的）地区间的个人收入差距,并分析了影响个人收入差距的因素,得到了一些有意义的结果。     

Japanese and American Children's Reasoning about Accepting Credit for Prosocial Behavior

Children's reasoning about the appropriateness of accepting credit for one's own prosocial behavior was examined. Participants aged 7–11 years old in Japan and the USA (total N = 206) were presented with a series of stories in which a protagonist performs a good deed and is asked about it by another character. Across stories, the protagonist either truthfully acknowledges the deed or falsely denies it, in a statement that is made either in public or in private, and is addressed to either a teacher or to a peer. As predicted, Japanese children judged protagonists less favorably when they acknowledged the good deed in public rather than in private. Further, Japanese children tended to view modest lies more favorably overall than did children in the USA. These results point to the importance of modesty in Japan and to the ways in which Japanese children take into account the social context of communication when deciding whether it is appropriate for individuals to convey information about themselves.     

A longitudinal study of depressiveness in children in public care

Rajhvajn Bulat L. A longitudinal study of depressiveness in children in public care Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 412–423 © 2009 The Author, Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. The aim of this article is to analyse the challenges involved when making longitudinal observations of depressiveness in children raised in public care. The first measurement comprised 375 children from children's homes and foster families; however, most of the results are based on an analysis of the 139 children who participated in both parts of the research. We used the Child Depression Inventory and the anxiety/depression subscales of Youth Self Report and Child Behaviour Checklist as measures of depressiveness. The comparison of results from the first and second measurements showed that depressiveness in children in public care decreased over time. Children who grew up in children homes were, in the first measurement, more depressed than those living in foster families, but after five years that difference had disappeared. Furthermore, decrease in depressiveness is predominantly associated with less frequent delinquent, aggressive or hyperactive behaviour, less withdrawal and better control over uncomfortable emotions.     

《唐方镇文职僚佐考》增补

文职僚佐是唐代藩镇的重要组成人员,随着考古资料的增进,有关唐代藩镇文职僚佐的史料不断增加,将这些资料加以整理对研究唐朝历史将提供便利条件。