基于当代“公务员热”现象的理性分析

阐述了当代就业人员基本情况,结合＂公务员热＂这一社会现象,从就业观念、时代背景、择业观念、心理状况、政治文化、经济因素、制度因素等多个方面理性分析其原因,在此基础上,提出缓解这一现象的对策思考。     

Inductive Risk,Science, and Values: A Reply to MacGillivray

The argument from inductive risk (AIR) is perhaps the most common argument against the value-free ideal of science. Brian MacGillivray rejects the AIR (at least as it would apply to risk assessment) and embraces the value-free ideal. We clarify the issues at stake and argue that MacGillivray's criticisms, although effective against some formulations of the AIR, fail to overcome the essential concerns that motivate the AIR. There are inevitable trade-offs in scientific enquiry that cannot be resolved with any formal methods or general rules. Choices must be made, and values will be involved. It is best to recognize this explicitly. Even so, there is more work to be done developing methods and institutional support for these choices.     

Information loss on the dependence parameter due to incomplete data from a one-parameter spatial gaussian process

The Fisher information loss on the dependence parameter is considered for three one-parameter Gaussian processes on a rectangular lattice when some values are not observed. Formulae are given for the general case, and simplified versions for two of the special cases. Approximations are considered, and cases with a small number of missing sites are compared.     

Revitalization of the traditional values lost due to the commodification of art/crafts: a case study of Bataknese traditional Ulos

ABSTRACT

The dynamics of modernization in Bataknese community, supported by various factors, led to the desacralization of traditions. This desacralization is due to the commodification of its cultural elements, among them the crafts of ulos. The existence of traditional ulos relates to religious life and is a manifestation of the Bataknese theology. The existence of Bataknese culture is strongly supported by the existence of ulos, which is the actualization of the ‘dalihan na tolu’ kinship system. Traditionally, the use of ulos in the community is governed by custom, according to the type, form, function and meaning. However, the commodification of ulos has caused inconsistencies in its development, so it is feared that this would obscure the values of tradition, which should be preserved. This paper discusses the revitalization efforts that can be conducted by the stakeholders of the craft of ulos: community, business, and government.     

Tables of percentage points of the k-variate normal distribution for large values of k

This paper gives tabulations of the upper α percentage points of the maximum absolute value of the k-variate normal distribution with common correlation ρ for values of k as high as 500. The tables are useful for performing multiple comparison procedures in experiments with large numbers of treatments.     

当代满族小说的普世价值关怀

民族的文学艺术，既贵于个性张扬，又离不开普世价值的恪守。满族作家在充满情感地状写本民族题材的同时，也通过作品极大地弘扬着时代的普世价值，并取得了世间公认的成就。该民族的作家文学长期养成了高度包容的性格。不愿收缩自己一向拥有的外向型视野。行进在世纪旅途的满族作家，因应于这样一个前所未觏的铿锵时代，精神意识领受着人类优秀思想的洗礼，更乐于以开放的文化胸怀、进取的人生眼光，全方位地观察发现生活．将融会着现代理念的艺术思考．注入笔端。     

Fluctuation of estimates in an EM procedure for categorical data

Estimates from an EM algorithm are somewhat sensitive to the initial values for the estimates, and this sensitivity is likely to increase when the model becomes larger and more complicated. In this paper, we examined how the estimates fluctuate during an EM procedure for a recursive model of categorical variables. It is found that the fluctuation takes place mostly during the initial stage of the procedure and that it can be reduced by applying a Bayes method of estimation. Both real and simulated data are used for illustration.     

One-sided tolerance limits for unbalanced one-way random effects models: a generalized Mee and Owen procedure

This article proposes a new procedure for obtaining one-sided tolerance limits in unbalanced random effects models. The procedure is a generalization of that proposed by Mee and Owen for the balanced situation, and can be easily implemented, because it only needs a non-central-t table. Two simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of the new procedure and to compare it with one of the other procedures laid out in previous statistical literature. The article findings show that the new procedure is much simpler to compute and performs better than the previous ones, having inferior values of the gamma bias in a wide range of situations, representative of many actual industrial applications, and behaving also reasonably well in more extreme sampling situations. The use of the new limits is illustrated by an application to an actual example from the steel industry.     

The gamma-exponentiated exponential distribution

In this paper, we introduce a new distribution generated by gamma random variables. We show that this distribution includes as a special case the distribution of the lower record value from a sequence of i.i.d. random variables from a population with the exponentiated (generalized) exponential distribution. The properties of this distribution are derived and the estimation of the model parameters is discussed. Some applications to real data sets are finally presented for illustration.     

试论电视剧创作与当代中国核心价值观的构建

电视剧参与建构和传播核心价值观具有必然性,这种核心价值观包含和谐的社会关系、家庭关系以及人与自然的关系,建构和传播的方法是运用"中和原则"和塑造"卡里斯马"型人物。