民俗志的学术定位和书写

本文对近年来民俗志书写理论和实践上的一些新探索作了初步梳理,指出了"标志性文化统领式民俗志"对于创新民俗志书写模式、增强民俗志书写主位视角和对话功能的意义以及"感受之学"在探寻民俗志独特学科品格上做出的探索和努力.     

流程CIMS项目经济评价方法研究

计算机集成制造系统(CIMS)是一种新型生产管理模式,但由于流程工业企业CIMS工程项目投资大、风险大,开发一种合理评价流程CIMS项目的经济评价方法已是十分必要.文章分析了流程CIMS项目经济评价的特点和各种先进制造技术的评价方法,提出采用效用叠加模型与层次分析法结合起来构成的复合评价方法对流程CIMS项目进行经济评价,并简介了该方法的运用模式,为流程企业实践提供参考.     

可持续发展与会计理论研究方法的选择

随着经济的高速增长与环境保护、社会发展的矛盾日益突出,人类提出了建立在资源、环境、经济和社会相协调基础上的可持续发展战略。这种新的发展观必然对传统会计理论及其研究方法产生冲击。在现有的各种会计理论研究方法中,社会学法正是与可持续发展要求相一致的,其必将对会计理论的发展产生深远的影响,有着广阔的应用前景。     

加强领导干部理论学习 切实提高理论学习效果

全面建设小康社会,推进社会主义现代化建设,关键在于提高党的各级领导干部的素质。而提高领导干部理论学习的效果是提高领导干部素质的必由之路。要保证领导干部理论学习的效果,首先要使领导干部从国际、国内形势和领导干部自身状况来充分认识搞好理论学习的重要意义;其次是选择正确的理论学习方法和途径,从理论学习的实践来看,集中培训、系统学习,集中面授、重点辅导,普遍号召、分层研读,施加压力、促进自学等都是行之有效的方法;最后要有保证理论学习效果的有效措施。这就要制定和完善包括领导干部脱产进修制度、中心组学习制度、干部在职自学制度、考核制度等一整套的制度体系。     

应用多媒体组合教学 提高教学质量

应用“多媒体组合教学设计原理”，改进“化学教学论”课程教学，从理论与实践结合上使教学内容、课程结构、教学方法和教学评价等实行同步改革，使教学过程中的教师、学科内容、媒体、学生等要素的组合和联系方式产生重大改变。     

中美石油安全水平对经济增长影响的对比研究——基于灰色关联分析

为科学地评价比较中美石油安全水平对经济增长的影响程度,文章采用主成分分析方法,选取采储比水平、储量接替率、消费弹性系数、原油价格波动系数、对外依存度和石油占一次能源消费比重等6个要素指标,构成一个新的石油安全指标评价体系,并利用灰色关联方法比较分析了不同时间段内中美两国的石油安全水平与经济增长之间的关联度,得出自21世纪以来,美国经济发展对石油安全水平的依赖程度要远大于中国的结论。     

Deconvolution methods for non-parametric inference in two-level mixed models

Summary.  We develop a general non-parametric approach to the analysis of clustered data via random effects. Assuming only that the link function is known, the regression functions and the distributions of both cluster means and observation errors are treated non-parametrically. Our argument proceeds by viewing the observation error at the cluster mean level as though it were a measurement error in an errors-in-variables problem, and using a deconvolution argument to access the distribution of the cluster mean. A Fourier deconvolution approach could be used if the distribution of the error-in-variables were known. In practice it is unknown, of course, but it can be estimated from repeated measurements, and in this way deconvolution can be achieved in an approximate sense. This argument might be interpreted as implying that large numbers of replicates are necessary for each cluster mean distribution, but that is not so; we avoid this requirement by incorporating statistical smoothing over values of nearby explanatory variables. Empirical rules are developed for the choice of smoothing parameter. Numerical simulations, and an application to real data, demonstrate small sample performance for this package of methodology. We also develop theory establishing statistical consistency.     

Unifying CRM and EWOC designs for phase I cancer clinical trials

The main goal of phase I cancer clinical trials is to determine the highest dose of a new therapy associated with an acceptable level of toxicity for the use in a subsequent phase II trial. The continual reassessment method (CRM) [O’Quigley, J., Pepe, M., Fisher, L., 1990. Continual reassessment method: a practical design for phase I clinical trials in cancer. Biometrics 46, 33–48] and escalation with overdose control (EWOC) [Babb, J., Rogatko, A., Zacks, S., 1998. Cancer phase I clinical trials: efficient dose escalation with overdose control. Statist. Med. 17 (10), 1103–1120] are two model-based designs used for phase I cancer clinical trials. A few modifications of the (original) CRM and EWOC have been made by many authors. In this paper, we show how CRM and EWOC can be unified and present a hybrid design. We study the characteristics of the approach of the hybrid design. The comparisons of the three designs (CRM, EWOC, and the hybrid design) are presented by convergence rates and overdose proportions. The simulation results show that the hybrid design generally has faster convergence rates than EWOC and smaller overdose proportions than CRM, especially when the true maximum tolerated dose (MTD) is above the mid-level of the dose range considered. The performance of these three designs is also evaluated in terms of sensitivity to outliers.     

On construction of asymptotically correct confidence intervals

In this paper we discuss constructing confidence intervals based on asymptotic generalized pivotal quantities (AGPQs). An AGPQ associates a distribution with the corresponding parameter, and then an asymptotically correct confidence interval can be derived directly from this distribution like Bayesian or fiducial interval estimates. We provide two general procedures for constructing AGPQs. We also present several examples to show that AGPQs can yield new confidence intervals with better finite-sample behaviors than traditional methods.     

文学古今演变的临界点之辨

中国文学古今演变是一个富有活力的学术命题,自复旦大学章培恒教授首倡以来,相关的学术探索新见迭出,取得了不俗的成绩.