Disciplining qualitative decision exercises: Aspects of a transempirical protocol

This paper defines and defends certain procedural and instrumental initiatives taken to constitute a transempirical protocol. This protocol is intended to provide one avenue for extending the bounds of rationality to decision exercises where there are only limited opportunities for effecting objective or empirical discipline. That is, the practical purpose of the protocol's facilities is to help prevent decision exercises that must be conducted in the face of a signal sparsity of objective/empirical predicates from degenerating into an uncontrolled retreat from reason.The paper is divided into two essentially self-contained parts. Part I will try to establish the rationale for the transempirical protocol in light of the reach and limits of other decision-theoretic platforms, and briefly introduce the set of provisions it entails. Part II will then go through a technical elaboration of these provisions, suggesting how they might be brought towards operational significance.     

学校管理决策过程中的心理误区

在领导过程中 ,决策者最易出现的心理误区有 :最优化效应、心理定势、惟一选择、无风险决策。了解并力求避免这些心理误区 ,对于决策的科学化有着重要的意义     

双趋与双避决策情景的ERPs研究

为了研究双趋与双避冲突情景所诱发的脑电成分的差异,本研究分别记录了16名健康大学生被试在双趋、双避、无冲突三种不同情景下完成决策任务的反应时数据与脑电成分.结果表明：（1）被试在冲突情景下的决策反应时均长于无冲突情景,其中双趋冲突下反应时长于双避冲突；（2）双趋冲突情景诱发的P2的波峰值更高,潜伏期也更短,无冲突情景所引发的P2波峰值最小,潜伏期最长；（3）冲突情景与无冲突情景在300 ～ 400 ms之间出现了LPC的分离,动机冲突比无冲突情景诱发的LPC更正.本研究中脑电数据与行为数据得出一致性结果,双趋比双避情景诱发更深程度的负性情绪与注意唤醒,即较高的动机冲突.     

论新闻产生过程中的信息处理与科学决策

信息处理与科学决策可分为程式化和非程式化两类方法，程式化的信息处理与科学决策方法主要是顺向思维、系统思维、循序思维和逻辑思维的运用；非程式化的信息处理与科学决策方式主要是发散性思维、统摄思维和逆向思维等创造性思维的运用。新闻产生过程中处理信息与科学决策必须遵循科学的步骤和方法。     

A decision support system for the graph model of conflicts

A comprehensive decision support system called GMCA (Graph Model for Conflict Analysis) implementing the multi-player graph model for analyzing conflicts is developed. GMCA contains algorithms for the rapid computation of a wide range of solution concepts, thereby enabling decision makers to take account of the diversity of human behavior. Using an engineering case study, the key features of GMCA are illustrated.     

Entropy Principles in Decision Making Under Risk

This paper considers decision problems where: (1) The exact probability distribution over the states of nature is not precisely known, but certain prior information is available about the possibilities of these outcomes; (2) A prior distribution over the states of nature is known, but new constraint information about the probabilities becomes available. The maximum entropy principle asserts that the probability distribution with maximum entropy, satisfying the prior knowledge, should be used in the decision problem. The minimum cross-entropy principle says that the posterior distribution is the one which minimizes cross-entropy, subject to the new constraint information. The entropy principles have not gone uncriticized, and this literature, together with that justifying the principles, is surveyed. Both principles are illustrated in a number of situations where the distribution is either discrete or continuous. The discrete distribution case with prior interval estimates based on expert opinions is considered in detail.     

Supporting the allocation of software development work in distributed teams with multi-criteria decision analysis

In the fast moving software industry, projects have been increasingly developed by distributed teams, which are located in geographically remote offices and collaborate using information communication technologies. In such environments, project distribution presents specific challenges, as work in distributed teams increases project technical complexity, communication lines multiply and stakeholders’ interests may be divergent. Despite the importance and complexity of this type of problem, it seems that there is a lack of reports, in the literature, of systems that could support these decisions. This paper presents a real-world case study, where we developed a multi-criteria model for supporting the distributed team work allocation decision for a major global software company. It was developed with a group of software development project managers, using decision conferencing and multi-attribute value analysis. The model deals not only with software engineering attributes, but also “soft” and strategic issues, like team satisfaction and training opportunities. We also discuss some issues and challenges faced during this modelling process.     

Overcoming the Glass Barriers: Reflection and Action in the ‘Women to the Top’ Programme

Numerous equality programmes have been launched with the aim of promoting a more gender equal work life, yet little substantial action has been reported. This article presents a study of the Women to the Top programme in Sweden, supported by the European Union (EU) and aimed at promoting more women into top management positions. The research suggests that large‐scale projects assembling such heterogeneous actors as industry representatives, politicians and scholars tend to generate further reflection and discussion rather than promoting adequate and highly needed action. Drawing upon Brunsson's distinction between action rationality and decision rationality, the relatively modest effects of large‐scale equality programmes are examined, not in terms of a lack of commitment or competence on the part of the participants but as a matter of the disjunction between reflection and action. Reconciling reflection and action, that is, emphasizing not only reflection on gender inequality but also privileging various forms of practical action (such as new policies, the appointment of female managers, restructuring gendered wage inequalities or new recruitment procedures), is therefore a top priority for policymakers desiring more substantial changes in the gendered outline of industry.     

房地产品牌与情感决策消费者购买行为分析

本文以情感决策消费者的购房过程为研究对象,在论述体验房地产的来源、类型基础上,对房地产品牌与情感决策消费者购房行为作用机理进行分析,并与理性决策消费者购房过程进行对比。     

A Parallel between Regret Theory and Outranking Methods for Multicriteria Decision Making Under Imprecise Information

Incorporation of the behavioral issues of the decision maker (DM) is among the aspects that each Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) method implicitly or explicitly takes into account. As postulated by regret theory, the feelings of regret and rejoice are among the behavioral issues associated with the entire decision making process. Within the context of MCDM, the DM may feel regret, when the chosen alternative is compared with another one having at least one better criterion value. PROMETHEE II is a widely known MCDM method that makes no explicit incorporation of regret attitude of the DM. In this paper, we elaborate on the applicability of regret theory to MCDM context. In particular, we investigate the findings of regret theory and explore the parallel between regret theory and PROMETHEE II method. Relying on the concepts of regret theory, we demonstrate how a decision that is made using a PROMETHEE II based outranking method conforms to the regret attitude of the DM.