基于Rough Sets的传感器异常数据处理

在各种传感器的应用中,经常要对传感器的测量数据进行处理,以保证测量结果的可靠性．为了利用粗糙集理论处理不确定数据的优点,根据粗糙集理论的思想,先由已知测量数据提取出决策表,再进行补全、离散化等预处理,最后进行属性约简并提取出分类规则,对测量数据进行分类,剔除测量数据中的异常数据．实验结果显示该异常数据发现方法比常用的异常数据处理方法更为客观、精确和可靠．     

考虑回收再制造的报童模型扩展

随着产品生命周期呈现不断下降的趋势,单周期的生产决策报童模型的研究变得越来越重要。由于竞争加剧导致的退货条款变得更加宽松以及环保、法律的要求越来越严,回收活动逐渐成为企业关注的对象。本文从最基本的报童模型出发,考虑存在回收再制造活动情形下的最优生产量的决策问题,给出了生产量的最优决策,并将其与传统的报童模型做了比较。结果表明回收再制造带来的成本降低将有可能带来总产量的增加和利润的提高。     

Moving statistics beyond the individual clinical trial: applying decision science to optimize a clinical development plan

This paper describes how simple decision science techniques can be used to optimize the clinical development plan for a given compound. Using a case study from the stroke therapeutic area it is shown how methods such as decision trees can be utilized to describe, and adjudicate on, individual development plans. Terminology pertinent to decision sciences is described and areas where it is recommended statisticians should focus are highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价法的人力资源管理外包决策分析

采用定量分析方法进行外包决策分析。结合人力资源管理的特点，构建外包决策评价指标体系，采用层次分析法建立递阶层次结构模型，确定每个人力资源管理外包项目的相对权重，用模糊综合评价法建立模糊评价数学模型，对各外包项目进行评价，最终得到评价结果。采用这种方法在一定程度上克服了主观因素的影响，使决策更加科学，并通过案例分析说明此方法的合理性和适用性。     

国外企业道德决策模型述评

影响企业不道德行为产生的因素有哪些?我们可以通过改变哪些因素来促进企业做出合乎道德的决策?这些都是非常重要的理论问题和现实问题。国外学者经过20多年的研究，已经建立了很多道德决策模型，其中有四个模型最具代表性并被广泛引用，它们是Ferrell和Gresham的营销道德决策模型、Hunt和Vitell的营销道德理论模型、Trevino的个人与情境交互作用模型和Jones的道德问题权变模型。文章对这四个经典模型进行介绍和评价，并提出我国在此领域的研究展望。     

何为遵循先例原则

对于遵循先例原则的抨击是绝对主义复兴的一部分,这种偏见源于19世纪美国接受的反对不受限制的权力的说教。有些人认为,法院应当继续以行政而非司法的方式运作。正确的理解是,遵循先例原则是普通法审判技术的特征,在这种技术中,存在具有拘束力的判例和有说服力的判例之分。导致对遵循先例原则的不满的原因在于,我们的技术适用标准和在适用标准中起决定作用的法律的理念要素。惟有通过发现和确立标准、法律推理的有权威性的起点,才能根据经验和跳出经验来处理新情况。法律改革者应当攻击的不是遵循先例原则,而是需要纠正的司法习惯。如果立法机关没有尽职,还应考虑如何使立法主体承担相应责任。     

Ramsey's Foundations Extended to Desirabilities

In his Truth and Probability (1926), Frank Ramsey provides foundations for measures of degrees of belief in propositions and preferences for worlds. Nonquantitative conditions on preferences for worlds, and gambles for worlds and certain near-worlds, are formulated which he says insure that a subject's preferences for worlds are represented by numbers, world values. Numbers, for his degrees of belief in propositions, probabilities, are then defined in terms of his world values. Ramsey does not also propose definitions of desirabilities for propositions, though he is in a position to do this. Given his measures for probabilities of propositions and values of worlds, he can frame natural definitions for both evidential and causal desirabilities that would measure respectively the welcomeness of propositions as items of news, and as facts. His theory is neutral with respect to the evidential/causal division. In the present paper, as Ramsey's foundations are explained, several problems and limitations are noted. Their distinctive virtue – their evidential/causal neutrality – is demonstrated. Comparisons are made with other foundational schemes, and a perspective is recommended from which nonquantitative foundations are not the be all for quantitative theories of ideal preferences and credences.     

风险和不确定下的供应商数量优化问题研究

考虑企业所面临的不确定性环境和各种风险,以效用值和概率为变量,建立基于风险和不确定环境下供应商数量优化方法的决策树模型;从效用值和风险均衡的角度出发,讨论多供应商策略优于单供应商策略的条件和模型参数,并通过具体数值的计算分析采购方应选择的最优供应商数量随各参数变化的规律。     

决策习惯对决策生命期成本影响的研究

证明了决策习惯和它对决策生命期成本影响的存在,阐述了决策习惯对决策生命期成本的影响过程。在讨论决策习惯对决策目标、决策方式、决策程序、决策时效影响并最终影响决策生命期成本的基础上,提出了通过决策制度创新、决策人的优选和决策支持基础建设等措施降低决策生命期成本的途径。     

Demons, Deceivers And Liars: Newcomb’s Malin Génie

A fully adequate solution to Newcomb’s Problem (Nozick 1969) should reveal the source of its extraordinary elusiveness and persistent intractability. Recently, a few accounts have independently sought to meet this criterion of adequacy by exposing the underlying source of the problem’s profound puzzlement. Thus, Sorensen (1987), Slezak (1998), Priest (2002) and Maitzen and Wilson (2003) share the ‘no box’ view according to which the very idea that there is a right choice is misconceived since the problem is ill-formed or incoherent in some way. Among proponents of this view, Richard Jeffrey (2004) recently declared that he renounces his earlier position that accepted Newcomb problems as genuine decision problems. Significantly, Jeffrey suggests that “Newcomb problems are like Escher’s famous staircase on which an unbroken ascent takes you back where you started” (Jeffrey (2004; 113)). Jeffrey’s analogy is apt for a puzzle whose specific logical features can be precisely articulated. Along the lines of these related approaches, I propose to improve and clarify them by providing such a deeper analysis that elucidates their essential, related insights.