A Bayesian approach to Markov modelling in cost-effectiveness analyses: application to taxane use in advanced breast cancer

Summary. The paper demonstrates how cost-effectiveness decision analysis may be implemented from a Bayesian perspective, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods for both the synthesis of relevant evidence input into the model and the evaluation of the model itself. The desirable aspects of a Bayesian approach for this type of analysis include the incorporation of full parameter uncertainty, the ability to perform all the analysis, including each meta-analysis, in a single coherent model and the incorporation of expert opinion either directly or regarding the relative credibility of different data sources. The method is described, and its ease of implementation demonstrated, through a practical example to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using taxanes for the second-line treatment of advanced breast cancer compared with conventional treatment. For completeness, the results from the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation model are compared and contrasted with those from a classical Monte Carlo simulation model.     

决策支持系统的人机关系研究

决策支持系统中人机结合的思想已被广泛接受 ,但目前的结合多集中在人机界面层次和决策问题的模型求解层次。本文通过分析当前决策问题的特点 ,从认识层次、信息层次和组织层次系统地分析了人机关系 ,认为决策支持系统的人机结合应反映在决策全过程 ,并且还体现在完成决策支持的组织机构上。也就是说人机关系体现在人与计算机之间的更为广泛的交流上 ,以及完成交流的有关环境上。     

One-shot decisions under Linear Partial Information

This paper purports to make a contribution to the analysis of a class of decisions that has received little attention in the literature, although it appears to be of considerable importance. Certain decisions cannot be repeated but must be made under fuzziness in the sense that state probabilities are not exactly known (LPI-fuzziness). The analysis of Linear Partial Information is applied to the principle of neglecting small probabilities found by Allais (1953), enabling the decision maker to break away from the maxmin criterion. By systematic exploitation of the fuzzy information available, strategies are shown to exist that provide payoffs whose lower bound exceeds the maxmin benchmark with sufficiently high probability. The same methodology is shown to be useful for dealing with the case of only ordinal preference orderings that are so typical of those crucial decisions that may be made only once in a lifetime.     

The Value of Animal Test Information in Environmental Control Decisions

Value of information (VOI)analytic techniques are used to evaluate the benefit of performing animal bioassays to provide information about the cancer potency of specific chemical compounds. These tools allow the identification of the conditions in which the cost of reducing uncertainty about potency, by performing a subchronic or chronic bioassay, is justified by the benefit of having improved information for making control decisions. The decision analytic results are readily scaled to apply to a range of human contact rates (exposures)and a variety of control strategies. The sensitivity of results to uncertainty about animal to human extrapolation and the design of the bioassay is explored. An evaluation of the possible gains in general understanding about the mechanisms of carcinogenicity resulting from chronic bioassays is beyond the scope of this approach.     

仿真系统概念模型的有效性确认

仿真技术在各种系统分析、系统设计、管理控制、性能评价以及人员培训等方面都得到了广泛应用。但是，不幸的是仿真很容易被利用不当，原因主要是缺乏模型确认。本文旨在阐述如何应用决策理论对仿真系统概念模型的有效性进行确认，并提出一些个人见解。     

A decision support system for modelling and implementing the supply network configuration and operations scheduling problem in the machine tool industry

This paper presents a decision support system to simultaneously solve the supply network configuration problem and the operations scheduling problem for the machine tool industry. A novel database structure, which is able to consider alternative operations and alternative bills of material, has been used. An algorithm for complete enumeration to determine all the feasible solutions using stroke graphs is introduced. A multiagent-based simulator evaluates the different key performance indicators that the supply network deals with for each alternative solution (e.g. workload, profits, delivery times, etc.) to determine that ‘satisficed’ by the collaborative decision-making among its members. A case study based on a Spanish company that assembles highly customised machines and tools in several European plants is considered. From the experiments results based on data linked to this industry, it will be demonstrated that the tool is potentially useful for stakeholders and for the central decision-maker to make decisions collaboratively in a multisite context case.     

网络舆论与刑事司法决策互动的经济考察

网络舆论与刑事司法决策是互为作用和动态的关系。在互动关系中,任何一方都是在假定为理性经济人角色的情形下,在公共领域中的交流都需要投入一定的成本以实现其自身利益最大化,同时在自身内部同样存在着利益博弈关系。对网络舆论来讲,网络大众的集体行动具有凝聚力是经济性的选择;对刑事司法活动而言,司法主体决策机制的合理构建与运行是经济性的选择。当二者相遇面临利益博弈时,刑事司法主体放低理性的姿态,网络大众收敛感性的冲动,主张平等话语功能才是二者良性互动产生最佳经济性的选择。     

公共政策执行研究

由于"复制"性执行、选择性执行、敷衍性执行、变异性执行、停滞性执行等问题的影响,公共政策不能有效实施。政府部门必须采取提升政策质量,扩大并优化公共政策执行主体,实行民主决策,创新执行方式,加强监督,实行问责制等措施进行改善和防治。     

集装箱枢纽港主辅码头间靠泊决策的协同优化

近年来集装箱枢纽港码头拥挤问题日益突出,船舶等泊时间的延长导致船公司经营成本增加,尤其对于经营支线运输的船公司而言更是如此.鉴于此,船公司在拥挤的集装箱枢纽港码头附近设置趸船或驳船作为辅助码头来停泊箱量较小的船舶,通过建立缓冲区以减少等泊时间及降低停泊费用.本文从集装箱支线运输公司经营人的角度,首次提出了集装箱枢纽港主辅码头间的靠泊决策的协同问题,基于泊位调度理论建立了靠泊决策的协同优化模型,并用改进的遗传算法求解.仿真实验定量分析并证实了设置浮动码头对集装箱支线运输公司减少等泊时间及降低成本的有效性.