供应链社会责任研究综述

本文在梳理已有文献的基础上,从供应链企业存在社会责任的角度,对供应链社会责任内涵、必要性以及量化问题三个方面的研究进行总结和评述.重点对供应链社会责任的量化研究进行了梳理,分别从实证研究和优化研究两方面进行评述分析,其中优化研究综述包括定价、激励和协调三个方面.通过对文献的总结和分析,探讨已有研究成果的不足,并指出未来的研究方向.     

新时代现阶段的社会治理研究——权力决策、民主决策和科学决策的关系

"社会治理"的提出,是新时代开创以来党和国家治国理念的重大转变.社会治理体系的建立和社会治理能力的提高,为治国方略和理念素质提升,提出了更高更细的要求,对社会治理的决策理论再认识也成为必然."权力决策""民主决策"和"科学决策"三者之间互为依存,辩证统一.民主决策是各方利益的保障,科学决策是决策正确的基础,权力决策不仅是决策的艺术方法和组织程序,也是我党所倡导的民主集中制最高原则的一种重要表现.对权力决策而言需要尊重民主决策程序,对下级而言应该尊重科学决策.权力决策是社会治理的主导,民主决策是社会治理的主体,科学决策是社会治理的保障.     

文化差异对前景理论的影响研究

Daniel Kahnemanh和Amos Tversky的前景理论在西方文化背景下发现,在风险决策中,人们在不同的概率水平下会发生偏好反转,在期望值相同的情况下,决策者在高概率和低概率条件下表现出不同的风险偏好性。文章在中国文化背景下,研究了风险决策这一特性,结果发现在收益条件下,中国被试与西方被试表现出同样的偏好反转;然而在损失情况下,两者表现出不同的行为特征,中国被试并没有明显的偏好反转。进一步分析发现,损失条件的低概率情况下,中国男性与女性表现出相反的选择偏好,中国的男性偏好损失风险小而损失金额大的选项,而女性则倾向选择损失较少而损失概率大的选项。这说明风险决策中,不同文化背景下的个体有不同的风险偏好,且性别也会对风险偏好性产生影响。     

碳排放强度分解决策支持系统的研制与应用

中国区域碳排放强度随着经济发展呈现不同的变化趋势。为了帮助决策者根据区域碳排放强度的时间和空间特征制定低碳经济发展政策,基于对数均值迪氏分解（LMDI）的方法,研制了碳排放强度分解决策支持系统,并结合面向对象的信息系统开发流程开发相应的软件。通过对系统的初步应用可以看出,该系统有助于使用者定量、直观地分析各地区能源结构、能源效率和经济结构的问题,制定相应的低碳发展政策。     

我国保障性住房用地规划法律制度探析

当前在我国城镇化过程中,保障性住房用地规划的实践面临着诸多亟待解决的问题,保障性住房用地规划法律制度缺失严重。为促进保障性住房规划得以有效实施,立法应当树立以人为本的理念,以优先性原则为指导,不断加强法律制度创新。     

How an ant decides to prey on or to attend aphids

The following results on the behavior decision making of the antLasius niger toward two species of myrmecophilous aphidsLachnus tropicalis andMyzocallis kuricola on chestnut trees have been found. (1) An individual worker consistently attended only one aphid species, even if her nestmates attended other aphid species on the same tree. (2) The ants preyed less on the aphid species which they attended than on other myrmecophilous aphid species. (3) The ants preyed less on the aphids which had been attended by their nestmates, even if both aphids were the same species. (4) The ants preyed less on aphids which had provided honeydew to their nestmates. (5) The increased aphid density per ant led to an increase in the rate of predation on the introduced aphids by the ants. These results suggest that each worker ofL. niger chooses aphid species to attend from her experience. In addition, the workers can recognize whether an aphid has been attended by their nestmates and whether an aphid has given their nestmates honeydew. Through these processes, each worker decides to attend or to prey on the aphid. As a result, they may realize efficient collective foraging dependent on aphid density per worker.     

Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed

This research analyzes how individual differences affect performance in judgmental time‐series forecasting. Decision makers with the ability to balance intuitive judgment with cognitive deliberation, as measured by the cognitive reflection test, tend to have lower forecast errors. This relationship holds when controlling for intelligence. Furthermore, forecast errors increase for very fast or very slow decisions. We provide evidence that forecast performance can be improved by manipulating decision speed.     

A Unified Bayesian Decision Theory

This paper provides new foundations for Bayesian Decision Theory based on a representation theorem for preferences defined on a set of prospects containing both factual and conditional possibilities. This use of a rich set of prospects not only provides a framework within which the main theoretical claims of Savage, Ramsey, Jeffrey and others can be stated and compared, but also allows for the postulation of an extended Bayesian model of rational belief and desire from which they can be derived as special cases. The main theorem of the paper establishes the existence of a such a Bayesian representation of preferences over conditional prospects, i.e. the existence of a pair of real-valued functions respectively measuring the agent’s degrees of belief and desire and which satisfy the postulated rationality conditions on partial belief and desire. The representation of partial belief is shown to be unique and that of partial desire, unique up to a linear transformation.     

Risk Management Paradigms in Health and Social Services for Professional Decision Making on the Long-Term Care of Older People

Risk management systems and structures are developing rapidlywithin UK health and personal social services. However, therisk management strategies of organizations need to take intoaccount the conceptual frameworks used by professionals. Thisgrounded theory study used data from nineteen focus groups andnine semi-structured interviews (ninety-nine staff in total)to explore perspectives on risk and decision-making regardingthe long-term care of older people. Focus group participantsand interviewees comprised social workers, care managers, consultantgeriatricians, general medical practitioners, community nurses,occupational therapists, home care managers and hospital dischargesupport staff. Social work and health care professionals conceptualizedrisk and its management according to six paradigms that appearedto be in a state of reciprocal tension: (i) Identifying andMeeting Needs; (ii) Minimizing Situational Hazards; (iii) Protectingthis Individual and Others; (iv) Balancing Benefits and Harms;(v) Accounting for Resources and Priorities; and (vi) Warinessof Lurking Conflicts. The effective translation into practiceof risk management strategies needs to address the complex andoften contradictory issues facing health and social servicesprofessionals.     

Valuing Others’ Information under Imperfect Expectations

Sometimes we believe that others receive harmful information. However, Marschak’s value of information framework always assigns non-negative value under expected utility: it starts from the decision maker’s beliefs – and one can never anticipate information’s harmfulness for oneself. The impact of decision makers’ capabilities to process information and of their expectations remains hidden behind the individual and subjective perspective Marschak’s framework assumes. By introducing a second decision maker as a point of reference, this paper introduces a way for evaluating others’ information from a cross-individual, imperfect expectations perspective for agents maximising expected utility. We define the cross-value of information that can become negative – then the information is “harmful” from a cross-individual perspective – and we define (mutual) cost of limited information processing capabilities and imperfect expectations as an opportunity cost from this same point of reference. The simple relationship between these two expected utility-based concepts and Marschak’s framework is shown, and we discuss evaluating short-term reactions of stock market prices to new information as an important domain of valuing others’ information.