一种价格折扣和延期支付条件下最优支付时间确定

在延期支付条件下考虑价格折扣的库存模型基础上,进一步考虑通货膨胀对库存系统的影响,对原有模型进行了修正和补充,建立了货到付款和延期支付两种支付方式下的库存模型,由模型的最优解来确定零售商最优的支付时间,通过算例分析验证了结论,为零售商做出最优支付时间的决策提供理论依据。     

中国经济持续增长的动力、格局与面临的重要挑战

主导产业及产业群的发展与转换是中国经济增长的内在动力。改革开放以来,几个时期经济的快速增长都有相应的一组主导产业的带动,几经波动到2006年初经济增长在新水平上达到了相对均衡。但2007年以来,中国经济持续增长面临着成本推动型通货膨胀、可持续发展长效机制建立、有效控制资产泡沫等方面的压力与挑战,因此必须通过提高劳动生产率化解要素涨价的压力;通过构建外部成本内部化的市场机制解决资源的高消耗和环境破坏问题;要汲取国际上先行者的经验教训,利用好后发优势,比较平稳地渡过资本化进程中最不稳定的时期,以进一步深化改革推动经济发展方式的转型。     

"产权残缺":国有银行"变革惰性"深层次原因透析

国有银行的市场化改革迟迟没有取得实质性进展 ,问题的关键在于国有银行内部、各级监督管理机构和地方政府对此存在着“变革惰性”,产生这种“变革惰性”现象深层次的原因在于银行经营管理者、监管者和各级国有银行对国有银行的资源拥有残缺的产权 ,必须进行产权制度的改革 ,消除这种残缺产权的发生机制 ,加快国有银行市场化的改革步伐。     

线上服务互动如何影响口碑推荐——行为惯性的中介作用和优惠待遇的调节作用

不同于基于线下医疗或旅游业关注互动导向观念、整体的服务互动或某一服务互动类型与口碑推荐关系的研究,提出了零售业“在线服务互动—行为惯性—口碑推荐”的理论模型,并检验了优惠待遇的调节作用。基于626份在线购物者样本的实证分析结果表明:一方面,在线服务互动直接影响口碑推荐,且三种类型的服务互动的影响大小不同,其中顾客与顾客之间的在线互动影响最大,其次是顾客与在线服务人员之间的互动,顾客与在线平台界面之间的互动影响最小；另一方面,在线服务互动通过行为惯性对口碑推荐产生间接影响,且这种影响会受到优惠待遇的负向强化。在线零售商在服务管理实践中,要强化基于顾客的多层面服务互动,培养在线顾客的行为惯性,实施优惠待遇方案。      

The score test for the two‐sample occupancy model

The score test statistic from the observed information is easy to compute numerically. Its large sample distribution under the null hypothesis is well known and is equivalent to that of the score test based on the expected information, the likelihood‐ratio test and the Wald test. However, several authors have noted that under the alternative hypothesis this no longer holds and in particular the score statistic from the observed information can take negative values. We extend the anthology on the score test to a problem of interest in ecology when studying species occurrence. This is the comparison of two zero‐inflated binomial random variables from two independent samples under imperfect detection. An analysis of eigenvalues associated with the score test in this setting assists in understanding why using the observed information matrix in the score test can be problematic. We demonstrate through a combination of simulations and theoretical analysis that the power of the score test calculated under the observed information decreases as the populations being compared become more dissimilar. In particular, the score test based on the observed information is inconsistent. Finally, we propose a modified rule that rejects the null hypothesis when the score statistic is computed using the observed information is negative or is larger than the usual chi‐square cut‐off. In simulations in our setting this has power that is comparable to the Wald and likelihood ratio tests and consistency is largely restored. Our new test is easy to use and inference is possible. Supplementary material for this article is available online as per journal instructions.     

Does inflation bias stabilize real growth? Evidence from Pakistan

The motive of a typical discretionary central banker to accommodate excess inflation (inflation bias) is either to stabilize real growth or to spur it beyond natural rate. To what extent inflation bias helps to materialize this intention warrants empirical investigation. A more direct empirical probe into this issue, however, requires observable inflation bias indicators, which we model through desirable and threshold inflation rates as well as their respective society’s preferences. While examining the effects of inflation bias for a typical case of the discretionary monetary policy strategy of Pakistan, we found that contrary to the desired boost/stabilization in real growth, the policy (via. inflation bias) produced counterproductive results. Inflation bias was not merely ineffective in inducing real growth but significantly destabilized it. Moreover, the results, which are robust to different inflation bias indicators and subsample analysis, indicate that the higher the inflation bias, the higher is the intensity (magnitude) of its destabilizing effect and vice versa. This suggests that a policy that would minimize/constrain inflation bias would be a better choice as it would not only help achieve low and stable inflation but also a sustainable real economic growth.     

全球通货膨胀的驱动因素与非对称冲击分析——基于扩展的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的实证分析

将全球流动性、全球工资水平、美元汇率、国际资源品价格、全球经济增长等因素引入具有微观基础的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型中,利用状态空间模型实证分析了各变量对全球通货膨胀影响的变动状况,分析了美国和中国CPI的驱动因素。结果表明：全球流动性是全球通货膨胀产生的最主要驱动因素,其次是美元汇率、全球经济增长和国际资源品价格,三者具有持续且稳定的影响力。中国需求因素影响逐渐增强。全球工资水平对通货膨胀的影响不明显。美国CPI的重要推动因素是居民可支配收入,中国CPI的重要推动因素是经济增长率和国际资源品价格。     

惯性力和电磁力的统一

通过对惯性场和电磁场分量的计算,指出惯性力和电磁力有一致的表示,并计算出惯性力和电磁力的相应结果,从而统一了惯性力和电磁力.     

Dynamic pricing in the presence of consumer inertia

Customer behavior modeling has gained increasing attention in the context of dynamic pricing. As an important behavior phenomenon, consumer inertia refers to consumers' inherent tendency of purchase procrastination and may induce consumers to wait even when immediate purchase is optimal from an objective perspective. This paper studies a dynamic pricing problem for a monopolist firm selling perishable goods to consumers who may be influenced by inertia. We formulate this problem using the finite-horizon dynamic programming approach and derive the optimal dynamic pricing policy. We demonstrate that consumer inertia produces negative effects on firms' expected revenues and optimal prices, which are monotonically decreasing in both inertia depth and breadth. Through numerical illustrations, we further show that the marginal effects of inertia depth on optimal prices and expected revenues are decreasing, whereas the marginal effects of inertia breadth are increasing. Finally we propose some suggestions for firms to influence the level of consumer inertia.     

国际大宗商品价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响

国际大宗商品价格的大幅波动对全球范围内不同类型国家或地区的经济发展带来了短期问题和长期挑战,从总供给冲击的角度,基于AD-AS理论框架,分析国际大宗商品价格波动影响中国宏观经济的理论机制; 构建结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,通过脉冲响应分析和方差分解探讨国际大宗商品价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响,针对不同种类国际大宗商品价格波动产生的异质性影响加以对比分析。研究发现:国际大宗商品价格上涨在初期会造成中国实际产出的下降,但是在3个月后将提高国内的实际产出水平; 相比于“硬大宗商品”,“软大宗商品”对中国实际产出的正向影响更大; 更高的国际大宗商品价格会加剧中国的通货膨胀,并且中国通货膨胀对“硬大宗商品”价格变动的敏感性整体上略高于“软大宗商品”; 国际大宗商品价格的正向波动会通过提高通货膨胀与增加实际产出等传递渠道来提高人民币利率水平,而国际大宗商品价格变动对人民实际汇率的影响并不显著。