动态通胀目标、货币供应机制与中国经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡的分析

本文建立了一个包含动态通胀目标的货币政策DSGE模型,运用脉冲响应、方差分解、历史分解和反事实仿真方法研究了生产率冲击、消费需求冲击、通胀目标冲击、货币供给冲击对中国经济波动的影响。研究表明,DSGE模型对于分析中国的宏观经济和货币政策具有一定的适用性,中国的货币供应机制中存在不可观察动态内生通胀目标,并且动态通胀目标对生产率冲击做出正向响应的同时,对消费需求冲击做出负向响应;反事实仿真分析表明,具有动态通胀目标的货币供应机制能够起到稳定通货膨胀的作用。     

资本主义金融危机与社会主义传统

金融危机的爆发,引起了对资本主义体系缺陷的反思。文章在定义资本主义为自由市场经济体制、社会主义为计划体制,即传统意义的社会主义国家代替市场并主导投资的基础上,探讨了两种体制的优缺点：如果资本主义的问题在于经济危机,那么社会主义的问题在于通货膨胀。市场经济出现经济危机情况下,政府以直接参与投资的方式干预经济则应是有节制的并要及时退出。     

财政支农、税收、惯性效应与地区农业现代化发展

运用静态面板和动态面板模型对中国各地区农业现代化发展的综合影响因素进行了实证分析,结果表明:财政支农的力度和农村可分配净收入中国家税金比例的大小是各地区农业现代化发展的重要影响因素。在其他条件不变的情况下,随着一个地区财政支出中用于农业投入公共资金的提高,该地区的农业现代化水平会有一定程度的提升;而一个地区农村可分配净收入中国家税金所占比重越高,其农业现代化水平越低,这一因素对农业现代化的快速发展形成了桎梏。而对于一个地区来说,其前一期农业机械化水平会产生惯性效应,前一期物质资本的积累能够为当期生产条件的改善提供一定基础,使农业现代化水平得到进一步改善。     

Third-Order Translog Utility Functions

This article examines the advantages of estimating a third-order rather than a second-order translog utility function in a theoretical and empirical context. It is demonstrated that the rigor of tests for appropriate functional form is increased by increasing the order of approximation. An empirical example demonstrates that a second-order approximation can lead to inconsistent parameter estimates, whereas the third-order translog allows for better modeling of the preference structure and more consistent estimates for policy decisions.     

“积极惰性”的成因分析及其对策

“积极惰性”是伴随着追求成功的积极行为而形成的只会用历史上成功的方法来应对未来事件的惰性行为。它是组织中的若干正反馈结构所表现出的现象。这种结构在稳定环境中表现为积极性,而在环境发生质变时则表现为惰性。在组织结构上,采用柔性化、二元结构和横向学习的方式可使组织利用其积极性,克服其惰性。     

论教师专业发展的惯性作用及应对策略

教师专业发展在惯性的作用下,表现出了"好的更好"和"差的更差"的发展趋向。在教师专业发展中这一现象的出现是由教师个体素质、学校环境和思维定势等多方面的原因造成的,这无论是对教师个体还是对学校整体的专业发展带来了相当大的影响。因此,从学校整体层面和教师个体层面来研究教师专业发展中的惯性作用所带来的影响和应对策略,保证教育公平和正义,使教师普遍分享增长和发展收益的机会,是教师专业发展应更多关注的。     

政府消费、城乡居民消费与通货膨胀

通货膨胀除了受货币供给等因素的影响之外,消费需求的总量变化与结构调整也是其重要的诱因。该文通过实证研究得出:在经济发展中,由于其明确的宏观调控目标,政府消费支出可以有效抑制通货膨胀;城镇居民消费支出具有很大的奢侈性和非生产性,会向上拉动通货膨胀,而农村居民消费支出由于其总支出水平偏低和消费结构低下,则不可能显著影响通货膨胀。     

Uncertainty Quantification in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) provides an approximate, sequential Monte Carlo solution to the recursive data assimilation algorithm for hidden Markov chains. The challenging conditioning step is approximated by a linear updating, and the updating weights, termed Kalman weights, are inferred from the ensemble members. The EnKF scheme is known to provide unstable predictions and to underestimate the prediction intervals, and even sometimes to diverge. The underlying cause for these shortcomings is poorly understood. We find that the ensemble members couple in the conditioning procedure and that the coupling increase multiplicatively in the recursive conditioning steps. Under reasonable Gauss‐independence assumptions, exact expressions for this correlation are developed. Moreover, expressions for the precision of the predictions and the downward bias in the empirical variance introduced in one conditioning step are found. These results are confirmed by a Gauss‐linear simulation study. Furthermore, we quantitatively evaluate an alternative, improved EnKF scheme on the basis of transformations of ensemble members under the same Gauss‐independent assumptions. The scheme is compared with the frequently used ensemble inflation scheme.     

Testing for stationarity in large panels with cross-dependence,and US evidence on unit labor cost

A new stationarity test for heterogeneous panel data with large cross-sectional dimension is developed and used to examine a panel with growth rates of unit labor cost in the USA. The test allows for strong cross-unit dependence in the form of unbounded long-run correlation matrices, for which a simple parameterization is proposed. A KPSS-type distribution results asymptotically if letting T→∞ be followed by N→∞. Some evidence against stationarity (short memory) is found for the examined series.     

货币发行与通货膨胀

结合我国目前经济发展趋势,分析了货币发行和通货膨胀的关系。