VARIATIONAL BAYESIAN ANALYSIS FOR HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS

The variational approach to Bayesian inference enables simultaneous estimation of model parameters and model complexity. An interesting feature of this approach is that it also leads to an automatic choice of model complexity. Empirical results from the analysis of hidden Markov models with Gaussian observation densities illustrate this. If the variational algorithm is initialized with a large number of hidden states, redundant states are eliminated as the method converges to a solution, thereby leading to a selection of the number of hidden states. In addition, through the use of a variational approximation, the deviance information criterion for Bayesian model selection can be extended to the hidden Markov model framework. Calculation of the deviance information criterion provides a further tool for model selection, which can be used in conjunction with the variational approach.     

Accelerated test system strength models based on Birnbaum–Saunders distribution: a complete Bayesian analysis and comparison

Several models for studies related to tensile strength of materials are proposed in the literature where the size or length component has been taken to be an important factor for studying the specimens’ failure behaviour. An important model, developed on the basis of cumulative damage approach, is the three-parameter extension of the Birnbaum–Saunders fatigue model that incorporates size of the specimen as an additional variable. This model is a strong competitor of the commonly used Weibull model and stands better than the traditional models, which do not incorporate the size effect. The paper considers two such cumulative damage models, checks their compatibility with a real dataset, compares them with some of the recent toolkits, and finally recommends a model, which appears an appropriate one. Throughout the study is Bayesian based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation.     

改革开放以来农村五保供养制度模式变迁探析

改革开放以来,我国农村五保供养制度随着农村经济体制改革深化和社会的变迁,与时俱进,在改革中发展,目前基本实现了从农民集体内部互助共济的传统救助模式,到以国家财政供养为主,集体保障、土地保障和社会帮扶为辅的现代社会保障模式的历史性变革。2006年新《农村五保供养工作条例》的出台,不仅标志着我国五保供养工作进入了规范化、法制化管理的新阶段,而且也标志着与社会主义市场经济体制相适应的新型农村五保供养制度的基本确立。     

关于社会主义核心价值体系理论与实践研究——以江苏省为例

本文结合江苏建设中国特色社会主义的生动实践,揭示了社会主义核心价值体系在江苏表现出的鲜明特色及丰富内涵.论文认为,突显核心价值体系的区域追求,是新的历史条件下推进江苏省思想道德建设需要着力的方向,并对如何推进思想道德建设,形成科学的社会主义核心价值体系建设格局,提出了富有建设性的对策.     

司法的独立与民主:价值整合和制度架构

司法独立追求法律职业主义和司法规则模型,司法民主注重民众参与和意志表达,法治实践中两者存在紧张关系.应结合后现代社会关系性质和秩序状况,按照法律商谈论理路对司法独立和民主两种实现社会主体权利和自由的方法进行价值整合,确立法官社会化、司法论坛化、司法能动化、解纷机制多元化等制度架构方向.     

民族地区能源、经济与环境系统协调评价研究

随着我国民族地区经济的发展,能源和环境对经济的制约越来越强,能源—经济—环境[3E]系统协调矛盾凸显。本文旨在科学发展观的指导下,通过建立民族地区3E系统协调评价体系和评价指标,并结合实证数据,分析研究民族地区3E系统存在的主要问题,提出促进民族地区3E系统协调性发展的建议。     

民族区域自治与多民族国家的政治整合

多民族国家是现代民主国家的普遍形式,在国家主权范围内选择自治模式是其重要的制度建构.民族区域自治基于一体与多元的制度设计,是中国多民族国家政治整合的基本制度架构.但在新的形势下,民族区域自治基于一体的制度创新不足与基于多元的制度创新不够,使得这一制度的政治整合功能尚未充分发挥.因此,创新民族区域自治制度,提升民族区域自治的制度化整合效能是当代中国实现多民族国家政治整合的现实路径.     

透析实施生育保险制度的局势

从社会学视角对实施生育保险制度的必要性进行探讨,分别从宏观(包括人口转变规律、经济体制改革、提高人口素质的需求三个方面)、中观(包括社会支持网络的变迁、保障女性群体地位、保障企业平等竞争三个方面)和微观层面(包括生育观念的转变、生育的风险性、体现女性的生育价值三个方面)进行层层剖析,说明实施和拓宽生育保险制度势在必行。     

青藏高原特色农业国际竞争力评价指标体系的构建

基于农业国际竞争力评价指标体系相关文献回顾的基础上,从国内比较优势指标、显示性指标、解释性指标和实体性指标四个方面提出了青藏高原特色农业国际竞争力的评价标准,建立了包括4个一级指标、12个二级指标和24个三级指标的特色农业国际竞争力的评价指标体系,以期为进一步研究青藏高原特色农业发展提供参考.     

The state and the development of an information society: Greek policy and experience

The paper looks into the dynamics of information society policy and its implementation in the Greek context. It argues that information society development is a contested process, influenced by pre‐existing state, economy and society relations. Based on this, it looks into the different aspects of the idiosyncratic path which the evolution of the Greek information society has followed, particularly after 2000. Using Bob Jessop's strategic‐relational approach (SRA) to the state as an analytical framework and drawing on a number of in‐depth interviews with relevant political actors, it provides insights into policy implementation by examining: the public management of information technology projects, how such projects were received in bureaucratic structures and practices, as well as the relationship between the state and the information and communication technology (ICT) sector in public procurement processes. The emphasis is on the period 2000–2008, during which a major operational programme on the information society in Greece was put into effect. The paper also touches upon the post‐2008 experience, suggesting that information society developments might include dynamics operating independently and even in contradiction to the state agenda.