Social Amplification of Wildfire Risk: The Role of Social Interactions and Information Sources

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire‐prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social processes that likely shape how individuals in fire‐prone areas come to understand this risk, highlighting the role of information sources and social interactions. We classify information sources as expert or nonexpert, and group social interactions according to two dimensions: formal versus informal, and generic versus fire‐specific. Using survey data from two Colorado counties, we empirically examine how information sources and social interactions relate to the perceived probability and perceived consequences of a wildfire. Our results suggest that social amplification processes play a role in shaping how individuals in this area perceive wildfire risk. A key finding is that both “vertical” (i.e., expert information sources and formal social interactions) and “horizontal” (i.e., nonexpert information and informal interactions) interactions are associated with perceived risk of experiencing a wildfire. We also find evidence of perceived “risk interdependency”—that is, homeowners’ perceptions of risk are higher when vegetation on neighboring properties is perceived to be dense. Incorporating social amplification processes into community‐based wildfire education programs and evaluating these programs’ effectiveness constitutes an area for future inquiry.     

股权激励实施中经营者信息披露策略的演化博弈分析

本文在股东与经理仅具有有限理性的前提下,运用演化博弈方法对股权激励实施过程中,经理信息披露策略选择与股东策略选择的互动机制进行了分析.结果表明:当经理信息操纵的收益大于信息操纵的成本时,经理的信息披露策略依赖于股东监控的概率大小.当股东监控的收益大于监控的成本时,股东是否监控取决于经理选择信息操纵策略的概率大小.保持适度的股权激励水平、增强资本市场的有效性、加强监管、加重惩罚能降低经理信息操纵的概率.     

Designing Logistic Information Platform to Fostering Development Trend in China Automobile Manufacturing Group

The logistics resource in China's automobile group can't be optimized and allocated because of the "information island" problem in the group's logistics information platform in the whole group. In addition, it is the development trend of China's automobile group LIN to build a logistics e - market in the range of the group.     

基于限制优势关系的粗糙决策分析模型

针对信息不完全的偏好多属性决策问题,给出一种基于拓展粗糙集的决策分析模型.首先提出限制优势关系的概念;然后在限制优势关系下得到知识的粗糙近似,给出分类决策规则.对比分析证明,限制优势关系既保留了扩展优势关系的优点,又在一定程度上克服了扩展优势关系的局限性.最后通过一个实例验证了所提出的模型对信息不完备决策系统的处理更符合实际情况。     

基于策略熵的博弈分析研究

通过建立博弈问题的信息论模型和定义不同类型博弈问题的策略熵,论证了纳什均衡与最大熵之间的内在联系:最大策略熵是纳什均衡的充分必要条件。这表明纳什均衡不仅是利益的均衡同时也是信息均衡的结果。在此基础上,给出了基于熵最大化准则的纳什均衡估计与精炼的方法。     

Optimal Ordering Policies for Stochastic Inventory Problems with Observed Information Delays

Information delays exist in an inventory system when it takes time to collect, process, validate, and transmit inventory/demand data. A general framework is developed in this paper to describe information flows in an inventory system with information delays. We characterize the sufficient statistics for making optimal decisions. When the ordering cost is linear, the optimality of a state‐dependent base‐stock policy is established even when information flows are allowed to cross over time. Additional insights into the problem are obtained via a comparison between our models and the models with stochastic order lead times. We also show that inventory can substitute for information and vice versa.     

The Microeconomics of Efficient Group Behavior: Identification1

Consider a group consisting of S members facing a common budget constraint p'ξ=1: any demand vector belonging to the budget set can be (privately or publicly) consumed by the members. Although the intragroup decision process is not known, it is assumed to generate Pareto‐efficient outcomes; neither individual consumptions nor intragroup transfers are observable. The paper analyzes when, to what extent, and under which conditions it is possible to recover the underlying structure—individual preferences and the decision process—from the group's aggregate behavior. We show that the general version of the model is not identified. However, a simple exclusion assumption (whereby each member does not consume at least one good) is sufficient to guarantee generic identifiability of the welfare‐relevant structural concepts.     

机构投资者、流动性与信息效率

首次考察了机构持股、流动性以及二者的交互项对信息效率的影响。研究发现,基于3种不同的信息效率测度,机构持股比例的增加以及流动性水平的提高均会促进信息效率。进一步,通过引入机构持股与流动性的交互作用,发现中国证券市场一个有趣的现象：随着流动性水平提高,机构投资者持股比例的增加会在一定程度上减弱信息效率。这可能是因为伴随着高的交易量,机构投资者利用私有信息增持股份的信息被更多的投资者获取并加以模仿,导致股价有偏（如羊群行为）且所承载的私有信息减少,从而减弱了信息效率。     

信息技术如何实现契约治理与关系治理的平衡——基于D公司供应链治理案例

运用纵向案例研究,通过过程模型来解析基于契约和关系二元治理平衡的形成路径,打开信息技术与契约和关系的二元治理平衡之间的"黑箱"。研究发现,促进长期跨组织协同的关键在于实现基于关系和契约的治理机制平衡;信息技术能够在跨组织治理过程中实现治理机制的动态叠加,在治理机制不断优化的过程中实现治理机制之间的平衡。这一研究进一步丰富了跨组织治理理论,对中国企业在互联网环境下的长期合作具有启发和指导意义。     

基于扎根理论的中国企业克服外来者劣势的边界跨越策略研究

外来者劣势是新兴经济体跨国企业国际化过程中面临的显著劣势,现有理论在新兴经济体跨国企业如何克服外来者劣势研究方面存在缺口。选取4家中国跨国企业作为研究对象,采用扎根理论研究方法的三阶段编码程序对案例进行剖析,探索中国企业在发达国家克服外来者劣势的具体策略,构建以边界跨越为核心范畴的外来者劣势克服策略理论模型。研究结果表明,中国企业面临的外来者劣势主要来源于信息缺失和合法性缺失。边界跨越是克服外来者劣势的有效策略,其中信息内化通过设置边界跨越角色、聘请外部顾问、环境扫描、产品策略和信息内部整合等活动将外部环境信息传递到企业内部,提高企业获取异国环境信息的能力,降低不熟悉危害;有利的外部显示通过品牌营销、企业社会责任、名人效应和获取第三方认证等活动向环境释放积极的信息,提高企业的规范和认知合法性,降低歧视危害和关系危害。针对研究结论,从构建环境扫描系统和外部显示机制两方面对中国企业如何实施边界跨越、降低外来者劣势提出具体的管理启示。