Analysis of ordered covariate effects among groups with repeated measurements

Testing procedures for ordered covariate effects are developed in the repeated measures experiment. The maximum likelihood estimators of covariate effects under the ordered hypothesis are approximated by the isotonic regression of their unconstrained estimators. The asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics are chi-bar-square distributions which are mixtures of chi-square distributions. A Monte-Carlo simulation reveals that the proposed test for ordered covariate effects is seriously more powerful than the usual chi-square test that neglects the information on the order restriction. These testing methods are applied for analyzing the effect of vitamin E diet supplement on growth rate of animals.     

Bayesian ikference procedures derived via the concept of relative surprise

We consider the problem of deriving Bayesian inference procedures via the concept of relative surprise. The mathematical concept of surprise has been developed by I.J. Good in a long sequence of papers. We make a modification to this development that permits the avoidance of a serious defect; namely, the change of variable problem. We apply relative surprise to the development of estimation, hypothesis testing and model checking procedures. Important advantages of the relative surprise approach to inference include the lack of dependence on a particular loss function and complete freedom to the statistician in the choice of prior for hypothesis testing problems. Links are established with common Bayesian inference procedures such as highest posterior density regions, modal estimates and Bayes factors. From a practical perspective new inference procedures arise that possess good properties.     

How Fair Is Safe Enough? The Cultural Approach to Societal Technology Choice1

This paper consists of an argument and a pilot study. First is a general, perhaps philosophical, argument against the National Academy's viewpoint⁽¹⁾ that dealing with risk is a two-stage process consisting of (a) assessment of facts, and (b) evaluation of facts in sociopolitical context. We argue that societal risk intrinsically revolves around social relations as much as around evaluations of probability. Second, we outline one particular approach to analyzing societal risk management styles. We call this the fairness hypothesis. Rather than focusing on probabilities and magnitudes of undesired events, this approach emphasizes societal preferences for principles of achieving consent to a technology, distributing liabilities, and investing trust in institutions. Conflict rather than probability is the chief focus of this approach to societal risk management. This view is illustrated by a recent empirical pilot study that explored the fairness hypothesis in the context of new nuclear technologies.     

基于网络的大学英语自主学习模式探索

文章从大学英语教学现状出发,依据建构主义学习理论和交互假设理论,探讨了网络多媒体环境下培养学生自主学习的教学模式。     

关键期假说与大学生英语语音实证研究

语音是英语学习各项基本技能的基础，学好语音有助于培养和提高语言应用能力，也必将促进语言知识的加深和巩固。然而，大多数非英语专业学生的语音都存在问题。文章从语言习得关键期假说出发，对大学生英语语音现状进行实证调查，探讨关键期理论对语音的影响，并以此为启示，从个人情感因素的角度，提出利用有效教学资源，激发学生的动机，提高学生的学习兴趣，从而改进学生的语音。     

Comparison of non-parametric and semi-parametric tests in detecting long memory

The first two stages in modelling times series are hypothesis testing and estimation. For long memory time series, the second stage was studied in the paper published in [M. Boutahar et al., Estimation methods of the long memory parameter: monte Carlo analysis and application, J. Appl. Statist. 34(3), pp. 261–301.] in which we have presented some estimation methods of the long memory parameter. The present paper is intended for the first stage, and hence completes the former, by exploring some tests for detecting long memory in time series. We consider two kinds of tests: the non-parametric class and the semi-parametric one. We precise the limiting distribution of the non-parametric tests under the null of short memory and we show that they are consistent against the alternative of long memory. We perform also some Monte Carlo simulations to analyse the size distortion and the power of all proposed tests. We conclude that for large sample size, the two classes are equivalent but for small sample size the non-parametric class is better than the semi-parametric one.     

多重假设检验及其在经济计量中的应用

 基于错误发现率(FDR: False Discovery Rate)的多重假设检验（MHT：Multiple Hypothesis Testing），已成为一种有效解决大规模统计推断问题的新方法。本文以错误控制为主线，对多重假设检验问题的错误控制理论、方法、过程和最新进展进行综述，并对多重假设检验方法在经济计量中的应用进行展望。     

实验创新设计与教育研究

认为创新实验与教育研究是一项具有探索性的、较复杂的系统研究工程,进行该项目的实验研究必须精心设计、周密计划。对创新实验的目标和如何培养学生的创新素质提出了自己的看法。     

判别分析统计检验体系的探讨

判别分析已越来越受到人们的重视并取得了重要的应用成果，但应用中存在着简单套用的情况，对判别分析的适用性、判别效果的显著性、判别变量的判别能力以及判别函数的判别能力的检验等问题重视不够。为了更好地应用判别分析，就应对判别分析进行统计检验并建立统计检验体系，统计检验体系应包括：判别分析适用性检验，判别效果显著性检验，判别变量的判别能力检验和判别函数的判别能力检验。