明代西南总督与民族社会冲突调控

明代总督之制,始于西南。本文在对明代30余任西南总督的统计基础上,探讨了总督置罢、事权授予、辖区大小、任期长短与西南民族地区社会冲突之间的内在联系。文章提出,西南总督之暂设,以及西南民族社会冲突主要依托西南数省之力调控,皆反映了明中央王朝重北轻南的边疆战略思想。西南总督之设,虽有维护边疆民族地区统一和稳定之意义,但大军征讨所带来的破坏与影响至为沉重,是为史鉴。     

Engineering confederalism for Iraq

This article examines Iraqi political developments in the last few years. It argues that unless a constitutional mechanism for proper dispersal of political powers across Iraq's regions and branches of its government is developed quickly, it may become too late for defeating Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, stemming the sectarian and ethnic conflicts, overcoming its perpetual crises of governance or for keeping Iraq united. We suggest that a confederal structure is a better and lasting political solution for Iraq than federal or other structural configurations. We also argue that power-sharing and consensus must be intertwined directly into the constitutional fabric of the political structure.     

基础和应用研究对开放经济增长的影响

一个经济体在开放条件下,其技术进步水平不仅受其本身创新能力水平的影响,还受其他经济体创新能力的影响,因此,研究一个经济体在开放条件下,科研投入水平对技术进步进而对其经济增长的影响是有必要的。构建中间产品种类扩张型的内生技术进步模型可以研究开放经济条件下,基础研究和应用研究以及技术外溢影响经济增长的内在机理。对模型的竞争性市场均衡分析的基本结论是加大研究投入、增加应用研究投入的比例以及增加经济开放程度有利于长期经济增长。进一步的实证检验利用1990—2012年间中国的经济数据,考察研究投入、应用研究的比例以及开放程度对经济增长的影响,实证结果进一步验证了模型构建的合理性。在理论模型和实证结果的基础上,提出了相应的经济政策建议。     

Addressing potential prior‐data conflict when using informative priors in proof‐of‐concept studies

Bayesian methods are increasingly used in proof‐of‐concept studies. An important benefit of these methods is the potential to use informative priors, thereby reducing sample size. This is particularly relevant for treatment arms where there is a substantial amount of historical information such as placebo and active comparators. One issue with using an informative prior is the possibility of a mismatch between the informative prior and the observed data, referred to as prior‐data conflict. We focus on two methods for dealing with this: a testing approach and a mixture prior approach. The testing approach assesses prior‐data conflict by comparing the observed data to the prior predictive distribution and resorting to a non‐informative prior if prior‐data conflict is declared. The mixture prior approach uses a prior with a precise and diffuse component. We assess these approaches for the normal case via simulation and show they have some attractive features as compared with the standard one‐component informative prior. For example, when the discrepancy between the prior and the data is sufficiently marked, and intuitively, one feels less certain about the results, both the testing and mixture approaches typically yield wider posterior‐credible intervals than when there is no discrepancy. In contrast, when there is no discrepancy, the results of these approaches are typically similar to the standard approach. Whilst for any specific study, the operating characteristics of any selected approach should be assessed and agreed at the design stage; we believe these two approaches are each worthy of consideration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

股票供给曲线凸现向后弯曲与理性投资决策

股票市场价格的高低及变动是对股票内在价值高低及变动的综合反映和表现,其价格的形成直接取决于市场的供求关系,而影响和调节股票供求量的并不是单位股票的绝对价格水平的高低及变动,它是股票作为投资品的单位内在价值的市场价格水平的高低及变动。由于股票收入效应和替代效应的存在又使股票供给曲线向后弯曲提升了股票的内在价值,这一表象成为引起股价波动背后的主要理性因素,从而为投资决策提供理性依据。     

内部控制环境理论研究

控制环境是内部控制框架的重要组成部分,它是在基于对内部控制局限充分认识的基础上逐步提出,并随着内部控制实践和研究的深入而不断发展的.控制环境理论研究主要包括控制环境范围、要素、及其在内部控制中的作用,以及内部控制中"人"与"制度"的互动关系等方面的内容.重视控制环境理论研究,对更新内部控制观念、统一内部控制标准以及从控制环境着手强化内部控制建设等,都具有十分重要的现实意义.     

《西游记》道教评点本再解读

清代先后出现过六家以金丹之道评点小说《西游记》的评点本,六家评点本有一个清晰的发展过程。指出道教内丹修炼的要旨,批驳内丹学之外的一切旁门左道,借助五行和《易经》的义理和卦象阐释金丹之道,这构成了《西游记》道教评点本的主要内容。《西游记》小说回目和文本中大量的宗教术语和诗词,是评点者以宗教眼光看待和评点《西游记》的最表层化的因素;中国文人以文证道的思维模式,是更为深入的内在原因;评点者身份的改变及其思维的进一步道教化、非文学化,是《西游记》评本道教化的内在动力;《西游记》道教评点本对内丹学的阐释也是清代道教总体衰微、而内丹学却特盛的体现。     

Pathways from workplace flexibility to turnover intention: Role of work–family conflict,family–work conflict,and job satisfaction

This study examined the prevalence of workplace flexibility and the mechanisms that allow workplace flexibility to influence turnover intentions through work–family and family–work conflicts and job satisfaction among low‐wage workers in South Korea. Participants included 250 low‐wage workers whose monthly salary was less than 2 million Korean won (approx. $1,900). The study results indicate that low‐wage workers have limited access to workplace flexibility and that workplace flexibility plays a significant protective role in reducing their turnover intention, indirectly by decreasing work–family conflicts and enhancing job satisfaction. This article also discusses the implications of these findings for labor policy and social work practice.     

Challenges and dilemmas working with high‐conflict families in child protection casework

Social workers within child protection services report that families marked by high levels of conflict between separated parents are among the most challenging cases to handle. Few studies however have focussed on how social workers themselves experience and meet with parents involved in hostile martial interactions. This article reports on a qualitative study involving 31 social workers and provides an analysis of their experiences and dilemmas in working with such families. Findings demonstrate that social workers struggle to find ways to help high‐conflict families and often find themselves at an impasse. Parents involved in such conflict are highly resistant to change, and social workers struggle to engage with them over concerns about their children. Furthermore, findings suggest that social workers lack organizationally allotted time to assist the parents. I conclude by discussing ways in which emotional support, empowering interventions, and strength‐based approaches enable social workers to manage relationships with high‐conflict families. More research on this topic is needed to support and promote better practices for social workers to be more effective in assisting high‐conflict families.     

Parental stress and parenting in Chinese immigrant families: The mediating role of social support

As the population of Chinese immigrants has been growing rapidly in the United States, it has been understudied on the parenting behaviours as well as the roles parental stress and social support playing in parenting in this group. This study investigated whether parental stress was associated with parenting and whether this relationship was mediated by social support in a sample of 255 Chinese immigrant parents from the Survey of Asian American Families in New York City. Regression analyses with a rich array of control variables found that a higher level of parental stress and the presence of one or more stressors such as unemployment, low income, and low education were positively associated with the use of harsh discipline and parent–child conflicts and negatively associated with positive parenting practices. Social support functioned as a significant mediator in the relationships between parental stress and positive parenting practices but not in the relationships of parental stress with parent–child conflict or the use of harsh discipline.