When Can Scientific Studies Promote Consensus Among Conflicting Stakeholders?

While scientific studies may help conflicting stakeholders come to agreement on a best management option or policy, often they do not. We review the factors affecting trust in the efficacy and objectivity of scientific studies in an analytical‐deliberative process where conflict is present, and show how they may be incorporated in an extension to the traditional Bayesian decision model. The extended framework considers stakeholders who differ in their prior beliefs regarding the probability of possible outcomes (in particular, whether a proposed technology is hazardous), differ in their valuations of these outcomes, and differ in their assessment of the ability of a proposed study to resolve the uncertainty in the outcomes and their hazards—as measured by their perceived false positive and false negative rates for the study. The Bayesian model predicts stakeholder‐specific preposterior probabilities of consensus, as well as pathways for increasing these probabilities, providing important insights into the value of scientific information in an analytic‐deliberative decision process where agreement is sought. It also helps to identify the interactions among perceived risk and benefit allocations, scientific beliefs, and trust in proposed scientific studies when determining whether a consensus can be achieved. The article provides examples to illustrate the method, including an adaptation of a recent decision analysis for managing the health risks of electromagnetic fields from high voltage transmission lines.     

我国行政组织内部冲突及其管理问题探究

我国的各级行政组织经常要应对和处理各种组织内部的冲突，内部冲突处置不当也会影响组织的效能。对于这种行政组织内部冲突的原因和现象的了解与分析是十分必要的，冲突也是由多种原因所导致，而且冲突有多种表现。在社会转型时期，各级行政管理者需要正视行政组织内部）中突的问题，识别各种不同冲突的原因，采取积极的方式，通过立法、改革行政体制和完善沟通渠道等措施，科学地管理冲突，从而建设和谐、高效的行政组织。     

Social work for critical peace: a comparative approach to understanding social work and political conflict

ABSTRACT

This paper uses a case study approach to explore issues of social work policy and practice in three sites of political conflict in Europe: Northern Ireland; Bosnia and Herzegovina; and Cyprus. It begins with a review of the international literature on social work and political conflict and then discusses the strengths and limitations in engaging with comparative case study approaches. The authors explain how they view the writing of the paper as an intellectual encounter that helped establish the beginning stages of their comparative analysis. This starts with an analysis of the existing knowledge base about the three case studies that each share similar patterns of colonial histories, political and community conflict and the social work response. The second part of the paper extends this analysis to a critique of the impact of neo-liberal social and economic policies that often adversely impact upon the role of social workers in resolving conflict and building peace. The paper concludes with an appeal for social work to rediscover its rights-based role in working with victims and survivors of political conflict, what the authors describe as: ‘social work for critical peace’.     

电商平台自营和制造商直销的多渠道竞争策略研究

近年来电商平台自营产品和制造商开辟直销渠道已非常普遍。电商平台的自营行为，必然会产生与制造商销售渠道（通过平台销售的渠道或直销渠道）的竞争问题；制造商的直销行为，必然会产生与电商平台自营渠道的竞争问题。这种全新的渠道竞争行为非常值得研究，也是本文的研究核心。因此，运用博弈论的相关原理，本文得出并分析了不同情况下电商平台和制造商的博弈均衡策略。研究表明，当直销成本较低时，最终博弈均衡策略为：电商平台自营，制造商同时经营两条渠道；此时如果制造商的两条销售渠道竞争力都强，双方陷入囚徒困境，否则，电商平台利润改善，制造商利润降低。当直销成本适中时，最终博弈均衡策略为：电商平台自营，制造商只直销；此时，如果制造商的两条销售渠道竞争力都强、或平台渠道竞争力适中且直销渠道竞争力强，双方陷入囚徒困境，否则，电商平台利润改善，制造商利润降低。当直销成本较高时，若直销渠道竞争力强，双方将陷入斗鸡博弈。否则，最终博弈均衡策略为：电商平台自营，制造商不直销；此时，电商平台利润会改善，制造商利润会下降。     

The mediating role of coping self‐efficacy beliefs on the relationship between parental conflict and child psychological adjustment

The effect of parental conflict on children's psychological adjustment is variable. Coping self‐efficacy refers to a person's perceived ability to self‐motivate and access the required cognitive resources to take control of, or exert their coping efforts in a stressful situation. This study investigated the mediating role of children's coping self‐efficacy beliefs between parental conflict and children's psychological adjustment (internalizing, externalizing, anxiety, and prosocial behavior). The participants were 663 school students in grade 5 (M = 10.17 years, SD = .53) and grade 7 (M = 12.11 years, SD = .52). The ethnic composition of the sample was approximately 72% White, 20% Asian, 4% Middle Eastern, and 4% from other ethnic groups. Coping self‐efficacy for avoiding maladaptive cognitions mediated the effect of parental conflict on children's internalizing symptoms longitudinally. The higher the level of parental conflict, the lower the level of children's coping self‐efficacy for avoiding maladaptive cognitions and in turn the higher their levels of internalizing. These findings support the mediational role of children's coping self‐efficacy beliefs in the context of parental conflict. It is proposed that these beliefs should be considered in designing and implementing preventative interventions for children in the context of parental conflict.     

Declaring Conflict of Interest – Current State of Affairs in the Ophthalmic Literature

The importance of transparency with financial ties in biomedical research is widely recognized, and most peer-reviewed journals require declarations of Conflicts of Interest (COI). Nonetheless, variability in the consistency of declarations of COI has been sparsely assessed. To assess consistency and rates of COI declarations in the ophthalmic literature and the effectiveness of journal COI policies. We analyzed consistency and completeness of declaration of COI in the ophthalmic literature and compared the levels of completeness to specific journal requirements. Six-hundred forty-two peer reviewed articles satisfied the inclusion criteria. In 64%, COIs were unreported, in 25% declaration of COI was incomplete, and 11% of the articles reviewed had complete declaration of COI. Of the 33 journals in which the most frequently published authors’ articles appeared, 10 required the authors to complete the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) form or an equivalent form, but this did not affect the rates of COI declaration. In a random sampling of the most frequently published authors in the field of ophthalmology, declaration of COI was low and highly inconsistent. Requiring a standardized COI form has no significant effect on the rate of accurate COI reporting. Our findings lend support to the growing body of literature that shows that journals and editors may need to take a more active role in ensuring accurate and consistent COI reporting.     

Effects of Central Decisions on Local Livelihoods in Indonesia: Potential Synergies Between the Programs of Transmigration and Industrial Forest Conversion

In addition to well-documented negative effects (e.g., environmental degradation and ethnic conflict) Indonesia's central government programs of transmigration and industrial forest management subvert indigenous rights (even if unintentionally) through appropriation of forested land and migrant subsidies. Although central control can be an effective strategy for resource management, Indonesia's programs have undercut their own objectives and may interact synergistically to increase population pressure, reduce available land, and intensify land use conflicts on the outer islands. Empirical data are needed to evaluate the interactions between transmigration and forest conversion and to design appropriate management strategies that incorporate local as well as central controls.     

家庭友好计划的效应与机制研究:现状与展望

认为国内外关于家庭友好计划的研究主要从该计划的内容、效应、调节变量、作用机制等方面进行探讨。因而通过论述弹性工时制、远程办公、育儿服务等效应,考察个体、家庭和组织层面变量对家庭友好计划效应的调节作用,基于社会交换、组织支持和工作特征等理论视角探讨了家庭友好计划效应发生的内部机制,最后提出了家庭友好计划研究的方向。     

“城中村”改造征地补偿安置争议裁决机制的完善

我国城市发展进程的加快,城中村改造中因征地补偿安置争议引发的利益矛盾和冲突越来越频繁和尖锐,征地补偿安置争议裁决机制作为一项解决征地补偿安置争议的法律制度,在制度设计中存在裁决机构、裁决范围、申请主体、协裁关系、裁决效力五大方面缺陷,应从上述五方面加以完善。     

当前中国产业政策法与反垄断法的冲突、调和

随着《反垄断法》的实施,产业政策法与反垄断法之间不可避免地出现了矛盾和冲突,为调和二者之间的冲突,应依据当前经济发展形势和国家经济发展转型的需求,以有效竞争理论作为调和基点;以市场为导向,运用反垄断法控制产业兼并重组政策;积极适用危机卡特尔、中小企业卡特尔豁免制度,强调产业技术政策;放松产业管制,帮助实现规模经济、保持活力的经济健康快速发展。