唐仕途结构述要

本文以汉以来有关变化的背景，讨论了吏道和科举在唐代所具有的新的地位和性质，以及其它各种仕途的相应分化和调整。这些事态体现了自汉至唐文官选拔制度的转折及其长远的影响。本文旨在更切实际地揭示我国古代诸仕途的结构关系，并为有关研究提供一种新的分析框架     

中西选举制度基本原则的比较

选举制度事关一个国家民主实现的程度，事关公民的切身利益。我国的选举法目前正在修改的草案起草期，本文就选举制度的基本原则与几个主要西方宪政国家进行比较研究，见贤思齐，见不贤则内自省。     

Political science: Moral dialogues and our understanding of American politics

This commentary focuses on the connection between Etzioni’s moral dialogues conception and the concepts of social capital, civil society and the ultimate outcome to be anticipated from the election of Donald Trump in 2016. The optimist view that a progressive social movement is in the making is called somewhat into question given the well documented decline in the very institutions and trust-based norms essential for the moral dialogues in question to transpire.     

“大正民主运动”与日本普选

"大正民主运动"亦称大正德谟克拉西,是日本近代以来,继"自由民权"运动之后的第二次民主运动高潮,是日本政治现代化的一个重要历史发展阶段."大正民主运动"在不否定君主制的前提下,提出了普选制等进步主张,成为日本民主运动中的宝贵精神财富,极大地促进了日本资产阶级民主化的发展.值得注意的是,作为大正民主运动的重要成果的普选是有限制的普选.正是由于这种有限制的普选,为法西斯分子的上台留下了空间.     

村民委员会选举中存在的问题与对策探析

村民委员会是村民自治制度体系中的一个核心组织,也是基层群众自治组织。村民委员会是否依法产生,是否为村民服务,关系着村民自治制度的切实实现。选举作为村民自治的一个起始环节,无论从理论上、制度上还是从实践上都存在着诸多问题。只有制定出与之相适应的行之有效的对策,才能解决好这些问题,并促进农村的和谐、稳定和发展。     

Designed for Patience: The Significance of Internal Factors in the Ukrainian and Belarusian Transitions

This paper focuses on Belarus in order to find explanation as to why Alexander Lukashenko was able remain the authoritarian leader of Belarus, while in Ukraine the position of the political elite had proved less stable and collapsed in 2004. We seek to determine whether the internal factors (macroeconomic conditions, standard of living, the oppressive nature of the political system) play a significant role in the operation of the domino effect. This article emphasises the determining role of immanent internal factors, thus the political stability in Belarus can be explained by the role of the suppressing political regime, the hindrance of democratic rights and the relatively good living conditions that followed the transformational recession. Whilst in Ukraine, the markedly different circumstances brought forth the success of the Orange Revolution.      

“鸿都门学”事件考论——从文学与儒学关系、选举及汉末政治等方面着眼

汉灵帝设立“鸿都门学”宠用辞赋之士，招致了朝臣的激烈谏议，成为当时政治上的一个重要事件，同时也是汉末文学史上的一个重要事件。历来学者虽有论及此事，但缺少深入的研究。本文首先从汉代文学与儒学的复杂关系入手，展示鸿都门学的设立在学术上多方面的背景；然后通过分析汉代选举制度的常规，指出激发“鸿都门学事件”之深层原因在于触动汉代以德行儒术为内容、以乡举里选为规范的人才选举制度。论文还认为鸿都门学事件与党锢事件联系在一起，与东汉以来逐渐形成的衣冠大族与单家寒门的社会阶层结构也有内在的关系。论文的写作目的也在于通过鸿都门学士事件的考论，展示汉代儒学与文学的关系、汉末文学的发展态势及其所处的复杂的政治与意识形态背景。     

选举民主的积极功能

民主是人类共同的价值观,选举民主是一种民主实现形式。选举民主是指人民通过自由、公正、广泛、定期、平等、竞争性的选举来选择政府及其治理方式。选举民主的积极功能有:合法性功能、选择和监督功能、稳定和抚慰功能、纠错和矫正功能、培育公民意识功能、扩大公民参与功能。     

党内基层民主建设:无锡的地方实践与理论思考

党内民主是党的生命,历来是一个重大问题。党的十七届四中全会在总结历史经验的基础上,为推进党的民主建设,特别是基层民主建设指明了新方向。无锡市作为我国发达地区,近年来党内基层民主实践取得长足发展。当前有必要在理论上进一步深入研究,对一些具体举措进行更为深入的思考。     

Exit polling in a cold climate: the BBC–ITV experience in Britain in 2005

Summary.  Conducting an exit poll to forecast the outcome of a national election in terms of both votes and seats is particularly difficult in Britain. No official information is available on how individual polling stations voted in the past, use of single-member plurality means that there is no consistent relationship between votes and seats, electors can choose to vote by post and most of those who vote in person do so late in the day. In addition, around one in every six intended exit poll respondents refuses to participate. Methods that were developed to overcome these problems, and their use in the successful 2005 British Broadcasting Corporation–Independent Television exit poll, are described and evaluated. The methodology included a panel design to allow the estimation of electoral change at local level, coherent multiple-regression modelling of multiparty electoral change to capture systematic patterns of variation, probabilistic prediction of constituency winners to account for uncertainty in projected constituency level shares, collection of information about the voting intentions of postal voters before polling day and access to interviewer guesses on the voting behaviour of refusals. The coverage and accuracy of the exit poll data are critically examined, the effect of key aspects of the statistical modelling of the data is assessed and some general lessons are drawn for the design and analysis of electoral exit polls.