An Evidential Reasoning‐Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario‐ and barrier‐based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning‐based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice.     

Management’s causal reasoning on performance and earnings management

We investigate the association between the intensity of causal reasoning on performance in a firm’s annual management commentary and its earnings management propensity. Anticipated earnings management concerns are argued to constitute a significant accountability predicament, bringing management to offer more intense causal reasoning in order to mitigate investors’ earnings management concerns. We use computer-intensive techniques to measure causal reasoning intensity as a generic disclosure quality in the management commentary of a large sample of US firms from 1999 to 2007. We find that accruals earnings management (signed discretionary accruals) is positively associated with causal reasoning intensity. The positive association holds for alternative specifications of accruals earnings management (an earnings management dummy model and an analyst expectations model) and in a change model. Our results are consistent with the assertion that firms strategically use causal reasoning on performance to establish appropriateness and cognitive legitimacy, increase perceived plausibility of reported performance and mitigate performance-related concerns of investors.     

基于人工免疫的企业流程案例库三级索引框架

根据流程案例的特点,从行业、业务和流程信息化程度3个方面构建三级索引框架,从而能够有效地对流程案例进行分类存储、快速检索与匹配。三级索引机制的核心是基于企业流程信息化程度的第三级索引构建,利用基于人工免疫的aiNet聚类方法的噪声忍耐、自组织、记忆性以及能够有效避免局部最优等方面的特点,对流程案例进行第三级分类,将人工免疫的抗体作为聚类中心,形成流程案例的第三级索引。最后利用105个样本对该三级索引机制的构建过程进行了实证。     

试论法律推理的标准化

造成同案不同判现象的原因主要有:法律规定不明确;对法条之间关系的误读;在法律规则适用时推理不充分;证据规则运用失误,错置举证责任等。应通过最大限度地确定法律概念的内涵和外延,以使法律处于明确和有序的状态;加大法典的编撰力度,完备法典的体系结构;加强制度建设,强化检察机关的司法监督职能以及加强举证责任认定的标准化等途径来解决该问题。     

Children's and Adolescents' Decisions about Sharing Money with Others

Two hundred and ninety-four participants aged between 7 and 17 years of age were asked to share out money between themselves and another, imaginary group. Individual responses were recorded as well as responses after discussion in a group with two other participants. The distribution task took place in two different experimental conditions that either gave participants a free choice about how much to offer to the other group or involved making a strategic offer to avoid the other group rejecting an offer and losing all the money. From 10 years of age onwards, when allowed to choose freely how much to share, boys made progressively less generous offers than girls whereas girls' offers remained the same with age. However, when inter-group strategic constraints were present, there were few gender differences from 10 years of age. The order in which games were presented was a powerful influence on the offers that participants made.     

权利外观原则及其类型研究

权利外观是指某一事实上不存在的权利在外部呈现出存在的表象。它是一个广泛涉及民法、商法等领域的法律概念。权利外观原则的意义和目的在于保护交易安全。它以研究信赖保护的前提要件为内容,发挥着法律解释和法律类推的作用,对法律续造也有着不容忽视的意义。     

A Longitudinal Study of the Leadership Development Process: Individual Differences Predicting Leader Effectiveness

This study tracked the leadership development of236 male cadets from matriculation through graduation ata military college. Cognitive ability, physical fitness,prior influence experiences, and self-esteem measured in Year 1 were relevant to predictingthose who assumed formal leadership positions in Year 4.Physical fitness and prior influence experiencesmeasured when cadets entered the college predicted leader effectiveness rated in their fourthyear. Stress tolerance and moral reasoning levels didnot predict leader emergence or effectiveness, thoughthe set of individual difference measures significantly predicted emergence and effectiveness. Physicalfitness levels and moral reasoning increased over timefor all cadets, though surprisingly, levels ofself-esteem and stress tolerance did not increase over time. Overall the study demonstrated thatleadership effectiveness and emergence could bepredicted from early measures of individualdifferences.     

归纳推理与科学说明模型的语境解释

归纳推理和科学说明是科学哲学的重要问题.从语境论视角看,归纳推理是依赖语境的,其结论的或然性是由语境规定的;科学说明的模型包括D-N模型和I-S模型及其修正的C-R模型、S-R模型、D-N-P模型和C-C模型都是依赖语境的,也即都是在特定语境中做出说明的.因此,一切说明,只要它是语言表述的,都是受到语境限制的.     

法律推理的非形式逻辑特征分析

传统研究主要用形式逻辑的方法讨论法律推理问题,但是,随着学者们对非形式逻辑研究的不断深入,研究者在法律推理中发现了越来越多的非形式逻辑特征。文章从法律推理的非单调性入手,分析了非形式逻辑与形式逻辑、形式化的关系,通过案例总结法律推理的基本特性,试图论证法律推理的非形式逻辑特征。     

论西方逻辑学的超越与我国大学逻辑教育

逻辑与科学、哲学的关系是科技文化学和科技教育学的重要命题。有一种"中国古代无逻辑"的说法,是一种误识,影响了对逻辑的深刻认识和影响了对逻辑的教育,需要改变和超越:其一,中国古代没有明细的逻辑学并不妨碍其他学术的发展。其二,中国古典哲学的有些基本概念和观念的提出超越了西学。其三,按照中国古代观念,逻辑不是形式是名理,辩证不是逻辑是易道,辩证法与逻辑学是统一的。据此提出逻辑学中国化方案,建议增加三条定律:定义的约定俗成律、判断的同异交得律和推理的容欠理由律。我国大学高等教育的辩证法课,应重新设计,以克服西方传统逻辑学的狭隘和局限。