Venezuelan Rainfall Data Analysed by Using a Bayesian Space–time Model

We consider a set of data from 80 stations in the Venezuelan state of Guárico consisting of accumulated monthly rainfall in a time span of 16 years. The problem of modelling rainfall accumulated over fixed periods of time and recorded at meteorological stations at different sites is studied by using a model based on the assumption that the data follow a truncated and transformed multivariate normal distribution. The spatial correlation is modelled by using an exponentially decreasing correlation function and an interpolating surface for the means. Missing data and dry periods are handled within a Markov chain Monte Carlo framework using latent variables. We estimate the amount of rainfall as well as the probability of a dry period by using the predictive density of the data. We considered a model based on a full second-degree polynomial over the spatial co-ordinates as well as the first two Fourier harmonics to describe the variability during the year. Predictive inferences on the data show very realistic results, capturing the typical rainfall variability in time and space for that region. Important extensions of the model are also discussed.     

Random Bernstein Polynomials

Random Bernstein polynomials which are also probability distribution functions on the closed unit interval are studied. The probability law of a Bernstein polynomial so defined provides a novel prior on the space of distribution functions on [0, 1] which has full support and can easily select absolutely continuous distribution functions with a continuous and smooth derivative. In particular, the Bernstein polynomial which approximates a Dirichlet process is studied. This may be of interest in Bayesian non-parametric inference. In the second part of the paper, we study the posterior from a Bernstein–Dirichlet prior and suggest a hybrid Monte Carlo approximation of it. The proposed algorithm has some aspects of novelty since the problem under examination has a changing dimension parameter space.     

Convergence of Slice Sampler Markov Chains

We analyse theoretical properties of the slice sampler. We find that the algorithm has extremely robust geometric ergodicity properties. For the case of just one auxiliary variable, we demonstrate that the algorithm is stochastically monotone, and we deduce analytic bounds on the total variation distance from stationarity of the method by using Foster–Lyapunov drift condition methodology.     

Extensions of Fill's algorithm for perfect simulation

Fill's algorithm for perfect simulation for attractive finite state space models, unbiased for user impatience, is presented in terms of stochastic recursive sequences and extended in two ways. Repulsive discrete Markov random fields with two coding sets like the auto-Poisson distribution on a lattice with 4-neighbourhood can be treated as monotone systems if a particular partial ordering and quasi-maximal and quasi-minimal states are used. Fill's algorithm then applies directly. Combining Fill's rejection sampling with sandwiching leads to a version of the algorithm which works for general discrete conditionally specified repulsive models. Extensions to other types of models are briefly discussed.     

新世纪中华民族创新的旗帜——论中共第三代领导集体创新思想

中共第三代领导集体创新思想的主要内容包括理论创新、制度创新、科技创新、教育创新等方面.全面建设小康社会、构建社会主义和谐社会,必须全面正确领会和掌握第三代领导集体创新理论,高举新世纪中华民族创新的旗帜,开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面.     

创新教育之我见

当今世界 ,日趋激烈的综合国力的竞争实质上就是民族素质和国民创新能力的竞争 ,而创新教育正是解决该问题的根本途径。本文通过中美教育方式的对比剖析了创新教育的实质——创造性思维 ,并结合实际与个人体会提出了一些创新教育的建议     

论闽台两岸金融合作的创新策略

闽台两岸金融合作是两岸经贸发展与祖国和平统一的内在需求。闽台两岸金融合作的创新策略在于强化闽台金融产业对接、拓宽闽台金融合作领域、建立厦门金融合作特区等。     

中美政府对高校科技创新的支撑作用比较分析

美国政府对高校科技创新活动的支持始于第二次世界大战期间.二战改变了美国的科研模式,确立了政府与高校在科研领域的新型合作关系.而中国高校科技工作受到政府的重视并得到快速发展则是在20世纪80年代以后.虽然中美两国政府都主要从政策和资金两个方面为高校科技创新活动提供支持与引导,但在支持的强度、支持的目的和引导的方向上存在较大差异.只有深入比较这些差异及分析产生差异的原因,才能为中国政府加强对高校科技创新的支撑作用提供可靠的理论和实践依据.     

建设项目供应链管理研究

建设项目涉及到多方管理主体。在其中引入供应链管理机制，建立供应链合作伙伴关系，有利于在各方之间形成共同的利益基础，从而降低成本，优化项目的整体绩奴，提高各方的收益。本文研究了建设项目供应链运作机制，建立供应链合作关系，并阐述了如何建立和完善建设项目供应链的实施保障合作机制，以促进建设项目供应链的良好运行。     

双重使命与缺陷：孙中山训政设想再探究

世人一般认为孙中山是一个怀抱崇高革命理想主义的激进革命家,也因此有“孙大炮”之称,喻其谋事、行事之不切实际。通过研究孙中山革命程序论中所提出的训政设想,笔者认为孙中山其实不乏理性与冷静,其所提训政设想,希望中国在建立民主体制之前,有一个准备与过渡阶段,以党权扶植民权,训练人民的素质,目标是建立宪政民主政体,有涤荡专制旧污与防止民主异化为民粹主义之双重使命。但其所提训政设想还是遗留内外双重缺陷,且相互关联,形成恶性互动,使其训政设想目标与手段悄然背离,不但制约其所提训政设想双重使命的实现,同时也遗有长远后患。