Markov switching model of nonlinear autoregressive with skew-symmetric innovations

We consider data generating structures which can be represented as a Markov switching of nonlinear autoregressive model with considering skew-symmetric innovations such that switching between the states is controlled by a hidden Markov chain. We propose semi-parametric estimators for the nonlinear functions of the proposed model based on a maximum likelihood (ML) approach and study sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity of the process. Also, an Expectation-Maximization type optimization for obtaining the ML estimators are presented. A simulation study and a real world application are also performed to illustrate and evaluate the proposed methodology.     

A marginalized diffusion model for estimating age at first lower endoscopy use from current status data

Summary.  We propose an approach for estimating the age at first lower endoscopy examination from current status data that were collected via two series of cross-sectional surveys. To model the national probability of ever having a lower endoscopy examination, we incorporate birth cohort effects into a mixed influence diffusion model. We link a state-specific model to the national level diffusion model by using a marginalized modelling approach. In future research, results from our model will be used as microsimulation model inputs to estimate the contribution of endoscopy examinations to observed changes in colorectal cancer incidence and mortality.     

“三个代表”重要思想对历史唯物主义的理论创新

"三个代表"重要思想是我们党在新的历史条件下创造性地运用历史唯物主义所取得的重大理论成果.与此同时,"三个代表"重要思想又是对历史唯物主义的重大理论创新,这种创新主要表现在三个方面,即对历史唯物主义的理论体系作出了新概括,对历史唯物主义的核心范畴予以了新发展,对历史唯物主义关于人类社会规律的认识进行了新深化.     

试论与时俱进与军校研究生的思想道德教育

在军事院校研究生思想道德教育中贯彻“三个代表”的要求 ,关键在于坚持与时俱进、全面创新的思想。只有坚持与时俱进、全面创新的思想 ,才能把传统的教育理念转变到以人为本的素质教育理念上来 ,也才能实现军事院校研究生思想道德教育在教育内容和教育方法上的创新 ,使军校研究生思想道德教育既体现时代精神又增强整体效力     

Innovation in Strategic Human Resource Management: Building Capacity in the Age of Globalization

This article addresses innovation as a strategic instrument in human resource management capacity building in the age of globalization. To meet the challenges of globalization—negative as well as positive—capacity building is needed in areas of organization, management, governance, and public administration all over the world. Innovation is defined, strategic innovations and innovative strategies are explained, capacity building is delineated, and over 22 areas or realms of innovation are identified, explained, and emphasized as strategic instruments of capacity building. Viewing human resources as human capital and beyond, the article argues that without human resources nothing can be accomplished, and without a well-trained, well-developed, well-appreciated, and well-managed human resources, modern organizations of government and business cannot meet the challenges of the globalization age, which demands a new generation of future-oriented, anticipatory managers who can develop effective visions and manage organizations by riding the high waves of change in the turbulent world.     

Unmasking the crowd: participants’ motivation factors,expectations, and profile in a crowdsourced law reform

This article examines the demographic characteristics, motivations, and expectations of participants in a crowdsourced off-road traffic law reform in Finland. We found that the participants were mainly educated, full-time working professional males with a strong interest in off-road traffic. Though a minority, the women participating in the process produced more ideas than the men. The crowd was motivated by a mix of intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Intrinsic motivations included fulfilling civic duty, affecting the law for sociotropic reasons, to deliberate with and learn from peers. Extrinsic motivations included changing the law for financial gain or other benefits. Participation in crowdsourced policy-making was an act of grassroots advocacy, whether to pursue one’s own interest or more altruistic goals, such as protecting nature. The motivations driving the participation were in part similar to those observed in traditional democratic processes, such as elections as well as other online collaborations such as crowdsourced journalism and citizen science. The crowds’ behavior was, however, paradoxical. They participated despite the fact that they did not expect that their contributions would affect the law.     

科技创新的哲学思考

科技创新的过程包括提出问题、构思方案和检验方案等三个阶段。科技创新的方法其实就是提出问题的方法、构思方案的方法和检验方案的方法。任何一项完整的科技创新都必然要经过这三个探索阶段。而科技创新的深化和完善也正是在这种反复探索过程中进行的 ,这种深化就表现为科技创新的完善和提高 ,表现为在形式和内容两个方面的修正、充实、规范化和系统化     

面向新世纪的戏曲

目前戏曲主要面临着两方面的挑战,一是信息化时代的高科技表现手段的挑战,一是如何以中国传统的文艺形式反映经济文化走向全球一体化的现代生活的挑战.所以,吸纳现代传媒的长处而大力发挥自己写意性表演的优势,适应人民欣赏需求与内容表达的需要作形式的革新丰富,是新世纪戏曲发展的关键所在.     

黄逸宾的山水画及其特色--兼议中国画的前途

本文集中论述了黄逸宾山水画情、逸、神、掘的风格以及画如其人、艺贵创新的艺术特色；黄老在任浙江省文化局长、省文联副主席、杭州大学党委书记等职，其山水画别具一格，在浙江乃至全国颇有名声。黄逸宾的山水画把中国画的笔墨情趣发展到极致，把中国传统的文人画推向一个新的高峰。文章作者对中国画传统的继承和创新充满了希望，明确指出了中国画的发展前景。     

“制度创新是第一生产力”论质疑

制度创新具有一次性性质．制度不是生产力要素。无论是制度,还是制度创新均不能成为第一生产力．科学技术是第一生产力,已经为现实、并将为历史证明是科学真理．