消费需求对安徽省经济增长影响的投入产出分析

当经济发展已由供给导向型转变为需求导向型时,消费对经济增长的拉动作用就日益明显。消费需求不再只担当经济运行结果的角色,更多的是被看作经济运行的前提。究竟怎样的消费与投资策略能更好地推动经济的发展,哪些部门的投入能够最大程度地促进经济增长,研究消费与经济增长关系对经济发展具有什么样的重要意义,是当前经济发展值得密切关注的问题。文章通过投入产出法分析显示：消费需求拉动第三产业总产出最显著,对第二产业的拉动次之,说明消费需求的增加对第二、三产业的发展具有极其重要的带动作用;为了促进安徽经济的健康发展,扩大消费需求仍是目前的主要任务之一。     

20世纪90年代中期以来西北地区城镇居民收入差距波动研究

在西北地区经济持续高速增长,城镇居民生活水平提高的同时,他们的基尼系数也在随之发生波动．总的趋势较平稳,但稳中有降。通过运用基尼系数和泰尔熵指数为分析工具。发现该地区城镇居民的组间收入差距在总差距中占主导因素。统筹区域经济协调发展,中央政府应该在发展中逐步缩小地区间收入差距。     

就业弹性系数急剧下降:事实还是假象

不少学者认为我国未来就业形势严峻 ,其依据是就业弹性系数不断下降 ,但是作者认为如果把隐性失业考虑进去 ,却发现至少 80年代中期到 90年代中期这 10年间就业弹性系数只是出现了不稳定的震荡 ,并没有急速下降     

The Value of a Statistical Life and the Coefficient of Relative Risk Aversion

Individuals’ risk preferences are estimated and employed in a variety of settings, notably including choices in financial, labor, and product markets. Recent work, especially in financial economics, provides estimates of individuals’ coefficients of relative risk aversion (R’s) in excess of one, and often significantly higher. However, it can be shown that high R’s imply equally high values for the income elasticity of the value of a statistical life. Yet estimates of this elasticity, derived from labor and product markets, are in the range of 0.5 to 0.6. Furthermore, it turns out that even an R below one is difficult to reconcile with these elasticity estimates. Thus, there appears to be an important (additional) anomaly involving individuals’ risk-taking behavior in different market settings.JEL Classification: D80, G11, G12, I10, J17     

A note on the prisoner's dilemma

This paper clarifies some basic concepts or assumptions of the prisoner's dilemma, asserts the independence between the two agentsA andB, and advocates the application of the dominance principle of decision theory to the prisoner's dilemma. It discusses several versions of the prisoner's dilemma, including the one-shot and repeated cases of a noncooperative game from a purely egoistic point of view. The main part of this paper, however, is a study of the problem from a moral point of view through a special decision-theoretic approach. Morality is taken into account by incorporating the utility of the feeling of moral satisfaction for the agent, as a part of the total utility for the agent, into the decision-theoretic model. In this way the problem will appear as a purely technical decision problem, and the conflicts between various assumptions, or the dilemma caused by the problem, will no longer exist. It is also pointed out that in a more general case, for some values of the coefficient of moralityk, dominance will not exist so that the dominance principle will not be applicable.     

基于产业发展指数的区域主导产业选择研究——以辽宁省为例

区域主导产业的选择与确定作为产业结构合理化和高级化的衡量标准,对经济发展具有关键作用,高效益、优势强的主导产业能推动产业群向高效率方向迈进,所以,现阶段科学的选择辽宁省主导产业对于未来的产业结构升级具有特定意义。文章基于影响力系数和感应度系数等产业发展指数,以辽宁省为例,通过对42×42部门的投入产出分析得知,化学工业和金属冶炼及压延加工业可以初步确定为辽宁省的主导产业;电力、电热的生产和供应业、通用专用设备制造业作为潜在主导产业进行培育和发展;石油和天然气开采业等五大产业作为支柱产业的培育对象。并根据该结论提出相应的政策建议。     

Variable selection for partially varying coefficient single-index model

In this paper, we consider the problem of variable selection for partially varying coefficient single-index model, and present a regularized variable selection procedure by combining basis function approximations with smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty. The proposed procedure simultaneously selects significant variables in the single-index parametric components and the nonparametric coefficient function components. With appropriate selection of the tuning parameters, the consistency of the variable selection procedure and the oracle property of the estimators are established. Finite sample performance of the proposed method is illustrated by a simulation study and real data analysis.     

Geometric Ergodicity and Moment Conditions for a Seasonal GARCH Model with Periodic Coefficients

A seasonal GARCH process with periodic coefficients is considered and conditions for periodic stationarity, geometric ergodicity, β-mixing property with exponential decay rate, and existence of higher-order moments are obtained.     

On Statistical Design of the Cumulative Quantity Control Chart for Monitoring High Yield Processes

When dealing with high-yield processes, the cumulative quantity control chart (CQC chart) has been shown to be more suitable than the traditional c chart and u chart. However, the CQC chart shows an ARL-biased performance. In this article, we propose a design procedure to derive modified control limits for the CQC chart and the CQC chart with runs rules that can produce ARL-unbiased performance and maintain the predetermined false alarm rate. After extensive numerical work we have found that the proposed ARL-unbiased CQC chart is more sensitive than the conventional CQC chart in detecting process deteriorations.     

Choosing principal components for multivariate statistical process control

Principal components are useful for multivariate process control. Typically, the principal component variables are often selected to summarize the variation in the process data. We provide an analysis to select the principal component variables to be included in a multivariate control chart that incorporates the unique aspects of the process control problem (rather than using traditional principal component guidelines).