Variance bounds for estimators in autoregressive models with constraints

We consider nonlinear and heteroscedastic autoregressive models whose residuals are martingale increments with conditional distributions that fulfil certain constraints. We treat two classes of constraints: residuals depending on the past through some function of the past observations only, and residuals that are invariant under some finite group of transformations. We determine the efficient influence function for estimators of the autoregressive parameter in such models, calculate variance bounds, discuss information gains, and suggest how to construct efficient estimators. Without constraints, efficient estimators can be given by weighted least squares estimators. With the constraints considered here, efficient estimators are obtained differently, as one-step improvements of some initial estimator, similarly as in autoregressive models with independent increments.     

ON SOME OPTIMALITY PROPERTIES OF FISHER-RAO SCORE FUNCTION IN TESTING AND ESTIMATION

The score function is associated with some optimality features in statistical inference. This review article looks on the central role of the score in testing and estimation. The maximization of the power in testing and the quest for efficiency in estimation lead to score as a guiding principle. In hypothesis testing, the locally most powerful test statistic is the score test or a transformation of it. In estimation, the optimal estimating function is the score. The same link can be made in the case of nuisance parameters: the optimal test function should have maximum correlation with the score of the parameter of primary interest. We complement this result by showing that the same criterion should be satisfied in the estimation problem as well.     

明中后期的居士佛教初探

从明代万历初期始,居士佛学兴盛。明中后期士林佛学的表现形式有两种:一种是遁入空门又不甘寂寞的上层僧人与信佛的官僚在都市的结合;另一种是厌世的文化人和劳苦大众同中下层僧侣在山林的结合,而居主导地位的是前者,正是这种结合推动了明后期佛教的复兴。明后期的居士们或念佛参禅,或诵经并潜研佛理,禅净合一的修行法门乃是最常见的修行方法。当时的居士大多当初受过良好的儒学教育,后来由信仰孔孟儒学转而信奉王氏心学,再而皈依了佛教,所以在哲学思想上反映出了禅理与心学相杂,又处处倡言儒释融通的特点。     

A Test to Detect Within-family Infectivity when the Whole Epidemic Process is Observed

An epidemic model for the spread of an infectious disease in a population of families is considered. The score test of the hypothesis that there is no higher infectivity between family members is constructed under the assumption that the epidemic process is observed continuously up to some time t . The score process is a martingale as a function of t and by letting the number of families tend to infinity, a central limit theorem for the process can be proved. The central limit theorem not only justifies a normal approximation of the test statistic—it also suggests a smaller variance estimator than expected.     

60年代调整后农村人民公社个人收入分配制度

个人收入分配制度是人民公社体制下重要的制度安排.本文从公社个人收入分配的构成和分配依据,以及与收入分配密切相关的公社劳动管理制度和工分制几个方面,说明了人民公社体制调整后到改革前的个人收入分配的实况,由此从一个侧面证明了以大包干为特征的分配制度创新,并最终取代公社平均主义分配制度所具有的历史必然性.     

A simulation tool for modeling the influence of anatomy on information flow using discrete integrate and fire neurons

There are theories on brain functionality that can only be tested in very large models. In this work, a simulation model appropriate for working with large number of neurons was developed, and Information Theory measuring tools were designed to monitor the flow of information in such large networks. The model’s simulator can handle up to one million neurons in its current implementation by using a discretized version of the Lapicque integrate and fire neuron instead of interacting differential equations. A modular structure facilitates the setting of parameters of the neurons, networks, time and most importantly, architectural changes. Applications of this research are demonstrated by testing architectures in terms of mutual information. We present some preliminary architectural results showing that adding a virtual analogue to white matter called “jumps” to a simple representation of cortex results in: (1) an increase in the rate of mutual information flow, corresponding to the “bias” or “priming” hypothesis; thereby giving a possible explanation of the high speed response to stimuli in complex networks. (2) An increase in the stability of response of the network; i.e. a system with “jumps” is a more reliable machine. This also has an effect on the potential speed of response.     

当代中小学校园规划建设的理念与实践——以沈阳浑南朝鲜族学校规划建筑设计为例

从当代中小学教育理念的变化谈起,结合作者所做的投标设计,探讨了新时期中小学校园规划建设的思路与方法。     

Testing the Normality Assumption in the Tobit Model

This paper examines a number of statistics that have been proposed to test the normality assumption in the tobit (censored regression) model. It argues that a number of commonly proposed statistics can be interpreted as different versions of the Lagrange multiplier, or score, test for a common null hypothesis. This observation is useful in examining the Monte Carlo results presented in the paper. The Monte Carlo results suggest that the computational convenience of a number of statistics is obtained at the cost of poor finite sample performance under the null hypothesis.     

Young Fatherhood and Subsequent Disadvantage in the United Kingdom

Although there has been increasing attention to the importance of fathers and their relationships with their children, few studies have examined young parenthood and its consequences for fathers’ life chances. In recent years, this has begun to change, and research is examining, to a far greater extent, the experiences of young fathers. Using data from a cohort of British men born in 1970, this paper uses a propensity score–matching technique to compare the well‐being of 344 men who reported becoming fathers before the age of 22 with men from similar backgrounds who did not. The findings suggest that selection into young fatherhood is substantial but, for some outcomes, significant differences remain.     

基于数据仓库的大学生诚信评估系统设计

结合金融系统广泛采用的FICO个人信用评估思想,提出了大学生诚信评价的加减分模型,构建了大学生诚信评估系统(CESS)指标体系及其数据仓库,实现了诚信数据校内整合与共享,并分别以ASP和VB.NET为工具开发了Web及C/S两种风格的CESS系统,介绍了系统结构与功能设计,讨论了包括直接利用Analysis Services多维分析工具实现的丰富的信用查询与统计方式,通过实际数据测试表明,CESS系统能够较好地满足高校需要.