Geometric Anisotropic Spatial Point Pattern Analysis and Cox Processes

We consider spatial point processes with a pair correlation function, which depends only on the lag vector between a pair of points. Our interest is in statistical models with a special kind of ‘structured’ anisotropy: the pair correlation function is geometric anisotropic if it is elliptical but not spherical. In particular, we study Cox process models with an elliptical pair correlation function, including shot noise Cox processes and log Gaussian Cox processes, and we develop estimation procedures using summary statistics and Bayesian methods. Our methodology is illustrated on real and synthetic datasets of spatial point patterns.     

On diagnostic checking of the autoregressive conditional intensity model

The autoregressive conditional intensity model proposed by Russell (1998) is a promising option for fitting multivariate high frequency irregularly spaced data. The authors acknowledge the validity of this model by showing the independence of its generalized residuals, a crucial assumption of the model formulation not readily recognized by researchers. The authors derive the large‐sample distribution of the autocorrelations of the generalized residual series and use it to construct a goodness‐of‐fit test for the model. Empirical results compare the performance of their test with other off‐the‐shelf tests such as the Ljung–Box test. They illustrate the use of their test with transaction records of the HSBC stock.     

Impact of technology-intensive exports on GDP of Western Balkan Countries

This paper aims to determine, by means of regression analysis, which exported product groups, categorized according to their technological intensity, have the greatest effect on the movements in the volume of GDP p/c of the Western Balkan Countries (WBCs). The analysis, based on statistical-econometric methodology, includes 16 commodity groups per each WBC (Albania; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Croatia; FYR Macedonia; Montenegro; Serbia). The data were collected and presented in accordance with the HS4 system classification, which is also used for development of the ITC’s Trade Map. The results of the analysis show that those commodity groups produced by medium-low and low technology industries have the greatest effect on the change in the volume of GDP p/c in all WBCs in the period 2005–2015.     

主导产业集聚与物流业发展的耦合关系研究——以西北五省(自治区)为例

本文运用区位商对西北五省的主导产业进行识别,并选取相应指标代表主导产业集聚程度和物流业发展水平,利用熵值法拟合出各省的主导产业集聚程度指数和物流业发展水平指数,计算各省上述两个指数的有序度并运用耦合协调模型计算二者之间在2007—2017年度的耦合协调度.结合各省(自治区)两个指数的有序度回归关系和相关关系进行分析,得出除青海省以外,其余四省(自治区)主导产业集聚程度和物流业发展水平均从不协调逐渐走向协调,青海省在剔除三个采矿业以后从不协调走向协调的结论.在此基础上,提出西北地区应进一步提升物流业运行效率,加大物流业的投资,加强物流产业区域间合作与协同,努力推动区域主导产业的集聚化发展和转型升级的相关政策建议.     

“矿枯城废”背景下如何实施环境规制?——基于115个资源型地级城市的实证分析

资源型城市利用自身资源发展经济的同时,对城市环境也造成了不同程度的破坏.大面积的结构性失业给资源型城市带来前所未有的就业压力.本文根据2003—2016年我国115个资源型地级市的面板数据,运用系统GMM分析方法,详细分析了资源型城市环境规制强度的就业效应,对不同发展阶段以及不同资源种类的资源型城市分别进行回归分析.结果表明:(1)资源型城市的环境规制强度对就业有显著的负向影响.(2)对于不同发展阶段的资源型城市,其影响程度由强变弱依次为衰退型、成熟型、成长型、再生型.(3)矿业城市的环境规制强度对就业有显著的负向影响,森工城市环境规制强度对就业并没有显著的影响.根据分析结果,本文提出结合环境规制和就业的关系合理制定环保标准,在保证就业的情况下达到改善环境的目的,实现资源开发的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益协调统一.     

Infill asymptotics for adaptive kernel estimators of spatial intensity

We apply the Abramson principle to define adaptive kernel estimators for the intensity function of a spatial point process. We derive asymptotic expansions for the bias and variance under the regime that n independent copies of a simple point process in Euclidean space are superposed. The method is illustrated by means of a simple example and applied to tornado data.     

Job quality,industrial relations and the crisis in Europe

This paper reports results from recent Eurofound research on the impact of the crisis on industrial relations and working conditions in Europe, based on the output of Eurofound's European Working Conditions Observatory and European Industrial Relations Observatory and data from the European Working Conditions Survey. Overall, the crisis – even if it is sometimes difficult to separate the effect of the crisis from megatrends in working conditions and industrial relations – seems to have had an impact on both domains. With reference to industrial relations, the impact of the crisis has influenced actors, processes, and outcomes. Regarding working conditions, the results appear to be in line with the literature on the topic, which relates the crisis to an increase in job insecurity, a decrease in work intensity, in working hours, and in anti-social working time arrangements, and a general improvement in terms of health risks and related outcomes.     

基于同城化视角的人口空间动态与区域经济发展耦合关联机理研究

人口空间动态与区域经济发展的耦合关系是同城化区域间共同面对的重要课题。本文在解构人口空间动态维度主体的基础上,将人口空间动态的诉求机制与动因机理架构于更低交易费用的利益诉求之上,解析人口空间动态的模式选择,深入探讨人口空间动态与区域经济发展的耦合关联性。在此基础上,提出引导人口流动与合理分布的策略。研究成果将有助于更好地理解同城化态势下人口空间演变的动因机理,为同城区域的经济发展、城市规划、文化交融等方面的科学设计提供重要参考。     

我国城镇化与农业现代化协调发展的总体趋势与政策解释

采用我国1978-2014年的数据,分析城镇化与农业现代化协调发展程度的变化趋势并提出对应的政策解释。通过构建城镇化和农业现代化的指标体系、采用主成分分析法确定各指标的权重后获得了城镇化水平与农业现代水平的变量数值,然后基于离差系数最小化协调度模型测算了城镇化与农业现代化的耦合度与协调发展度。结果表明：我国的农业现代化水平长期滞后于城镇化水平是制约城镇化与农业现代化协调发展的主要瓶颈;除了改革开放初期我国城镇化与农业现代化的协调发展度存在短期的波动向下趋势以外,其余年份我国城镇化与农业现代化的协调发展度总体呈现持续上升趋势;在不同的发展阶段,带动我国城镇化与农业现代化协调发展的动力机制不尽相同,而且各阶段协调发展度的变化与我国的社会经济政策存在明显的周期性关联。     

基于PSR模型的“河南”地区旅游经济和生态环境的关系分析

目的/意义在旅游产业大发展与生态文明建设进程不断深化的当下,如何促进旅游与生态两大社会模块协调发展尤为重要。设计/方法基于旅游发展与生态环境耦合协调分析框架即“压力–状态–响应”（Pressure-State-Response）模型的构建和2006～2017年的面板数据,运用耦合协调模型对云南省旅游发展与生态环境的耦合协调度进行定量分析。结论/发现（1）云南省旅游发展综合评价指数呈现总体上升局面,生态环境综合评价指数展现出“缓慢上升—小幅下降—保持稳健”的演变规律,云南省旅游发展与生态环境耦合协调水平保持不断高涨态势。（2）前期云南省紧靠区位优势,因地制宜发展旅游产业,后期利用旅游增长,反哺生态环境治理进程,两者互相支撑、共同发展,耦合协调度有效提升。（3）云南省生态环境综合水平还存在一定的发展空间,通过生态环境水平的进一步提升引导云南省旅游发展与生态环境耦合协调度向优质协调等级冲刺是具备现实基础的战略发展方向。