A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

“合理经济增长率”的消解——一个经济伦理的视角

经济增长极限的仍然存在，说明任何一具体的经济增长率都是通向极限的阶梯。代际关系上的经济增长率的合理性过份依赖于技术乐观主义，人与自然关系中的经济增长率的合理性只是形而上的玄想，代内关系的经济增长率的合理性只能衍生于单一的效率价值取向。这说明合理的经济增长率在经济伦理的应有视角里是虚幻的。人类必须在人口、科技、经济、政治和社会等制度结构方面建立起与可持续发展和生态文明相适应的经济伦理观。     

坩埚热导率对晶体生长温度场的影响

本文通过有限元数值方法计算了坩埚热导率对晶体生长温度场的影响,指出当坩埚热导率大于晶体材料的热导率时,生长区域的纵向温梯会有大幅度减小,反之,温梯变化较小。并且认为当坩埚侧面与环境的热交换系数很大时,坩埚热导率的影响作用变小。并指出坩埚热导率可以通过热处理及其他手段予以调节。     

公司价值形成的反身性机制与中国上市公司的实证研究

该研究把人的非完全理性和市场非有效对公司经理人投融资行为的影响融入公司价值的形成过程,构建了公司的价值体系,分析了公司价值形成的反身性机制。用公司价值预期与公司真实的价值创造之间的关系来建立实证模型,检验公司市场价值与内在价值之间的相关性。以中国上市公司为样本进行了实证研究,发现公司价值创造效率与市场的价值预期之间存在显著的相关关系:首先,市场对上市公司的价值预期存在偏离,表现为高估低内在价值的公司和低估高内在价值的公司;其次,这种市场预期的偏差对上市公司的价值创造具有显著的影响,表现为阻碍公司价值的创造。实证结果证明了公司价值形成反身机制的存在性。     

高等院校英语强化课程的评估体系与评估模式的构建

文章选取培正商学院的一年英语强化教改项目作为研究个案,根据(背景—输入—过程—输出CIPP)评估理论,利用质性评价和量性评价相结合的手段,对强化项目的背景和过程进行了评价。并由此构建出了一个针对高职高专院校公共外语教学的、具有自我约束并持续改进的课程评估体系。     

文化生产力的崛起与发展

马克思提出的文化生产力概念包含着正确把握现代社会智能生产力的指导性原则。文化生产力的提出, 使文化知识从非独立因素变为独立因素,由潜在生产力变为现实生产力。文化生产力的高度发展对现代文明的影响是全方位的,将对旧有的生产生活方式、思维方式、价值观念、教育模式和经营管理及领导决策产生重大影响,从而改变财富的分配方式。改革开放以来,我国文化生产力有了突破性发展,但在总体水平上同发达国家的差距很大。应当强化全民的“文化生产力”意识,建立起国家的技术创新体系和知识创新体系,加大对教育和科技的投入。     

文化资本:经济增长源泉的一种解释

文化资本是能为人们带来持续收益的特定价值观体系,它是决定经济增长的一种关键性生产要素和最终解释变量。熊彼特所揭示的企业家精神的实质在于企业家在生产中投入了文化资本。文化资本对经济增长的作用体现在两个方面:一是它具有报酬递增的特性;二是它制约着人们对资源、技术、制度等要素的选择。进行文化资本投资主要包括实现思想、言论自由与开展文化交流、改革教育内容等,它是促进经济增长的重要途径。     

植物生长调节物质对矮生一品红不定芽增殖的影响

以几种矮生一品红为材料,研究了植物生长调节剂BA,KT,IAA对不定芽增殖的影响.结果表明,影响一品红芽增殖的主要因素是细胞分裂素,以BA的增殖效果较好.不同品种(自由红、彼德之星、金钱豹、塔巴璐卡)芽增殖所需植物生长调节剂的浓度有所不同,矮生一品红试管苗芽增殖的适宜培养基为MS+BA0.5—2.0mg/L+IAA0.25—0.50mg/L.     

强苯赛对水稻幼苗根系生长的影响

强苯赛浸种对水稻幼苗的根长、根重和根系体积都有促进作用,能提高根尖细胞分裂指数,能使胚根尖切段伸长和发根力增强,并能提高胚乳中淀粉酶活性和根系的呼吸强度。     

The analysis of incomplete data using stochastic covariates

In the development of many diseases there are often associated random variables which continuously reflect the progress of a subject towards the final expression of the disease (failure). At any given time these processes, which we call stochastic covariates, may provide information about the current hazard and the remaining time to failure. Likewise, in situations when the specific times of key prior events are not known, such as the time of onset of an occult tumour or the time of infection with HIV-1, it may be possible to identify a stochastic covariate which reveals, indirectly, when the event of interest occurred. The analysis of carcinogenicity trials which involve occult tumours is usually based on the time of death or sacrifice and an indicator of tumour presence for each animal in the experiment. However, the size of an occult tumour observed at the endpoint represents data concerning tumour development which may convey additional information concerning both the tumour incidence rate and the rate of death to which tumour-bearing animals are subject. We develop a stochastic model for tumour growth and suggest different ways in which the effect of this growth on the hazard of failure might be modelled. Using a combined model for tumour growth and additive competing risks of death, we show that if this tumour size information is used, assumptions concerning tumour lethality, the context of observation or multiple sacrifice times are no longer necessary in order to estimate the tumour incidence rate. Parametric estimation based on the method of maximum likelihood is outlined and is applied to simulated data from the combined model. The results of this limited study confirm that use of the stochastic covariate tumour size results in more precise estimation of the incidence rate for occult tumours.