论宪政设计的可能性及其理论预设

人类社会可以通过政治设计来建立一个良好的政府,而宪政设计就是一个实现人间至善、建立美好现代社会的基本途径。人类具有主体性,政治具有向善性,这就使得宪政设计成为可能。进行宪政设计必须遵循一些理论预设,那就是关于人性的幽暗意识假定和关于权力的必要的恶的假定。     

How Large Are Your G-Values? Try Gosset’s Guinnessometrics When a Little “p” Is Not Enough

Abstract

A crisis of validity has emerged from three related crises of science, that is, the crises of statistical significance and complete randomization, of replication, and of reproducibility. Guinnessometrics takes commonplace assumptions and methods of statistical science and stands them on their head, from little p-values to unstructured Big Data. Guinnessometrics focuses instead on the substantive significance which emerges from a small series of independent and economical yet balanced and repeated experiments. Originally developed and market-tested by William S. Gosset aka “Student” in his job as Head Experimental Brewer at the Guinness Brewery in Dublin, Gosset’s economic and common sense approach to statistical inference and scientific method has been unwisely neglected. In many areas of science and life, the 10 principles of Guinnessometrics or G-values outlined here can help. Other things equal, the larger the G-values, the better the science and judgment. By now a colleague, neighbor, or YouTube junkie has probably shown you one of those wacky psychology experiments in a video involving a gorilla, and testing the limits of human cognition. In one video, a person wearing a gorilla suit suddenly appears on the scene among humans, who are themselves engaged in some ordinary, mundane activity such as passing a basketball. The funny thing is, prankster researchers have discovered, when observers are asked to think about the mundane activity (such as by counting the number of observed passes of a basketball), the unexpected gorilla is frequently unseen (for discussion see Kahneman 2011 Kahneman, D. (2011), Thinking Fast and Slow, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. [Google Scholar]). The gorilla is invisible. People don’t see it.     

专门用途英语特点及其在ESP课程设计中的应用——以市场营销课程为例

本文通过比较普通用途英语和专门用途英语,阐释专门用途英语的特点,并以市场营销英语教学为例,探讨了其课程内容设计及实现手段。     

Students Who Strip: The Benefits of Alternate Identities for Managing Stigma

We apply interactionist theories that highlight the contextual nature of stigma and the relational quality of stigmatization to the case of college students who work as topless dancers. We explore how the “toll of stripping” might be mediated by having an alternate, positive identity like “student.” Our analysis demonstrates that students who strip are distinctive from other strippers in important ways that stem from their salient, positive identity as students. Although they often feel as if they live a “double life” because they hide their occupation from family and friends, they benefit from sharing their student goals and ambitions with club customers. “Student” is a socially acceptable identity to share in routine social interactions and helps student strippers frame dancing as a transient occupation, offering them an opportunity to maintain a positive sense of self while buffering them from some of the negative effects of stripping.     

通信企业"三网融合"方案设计研究

随着经济和技术的发展,传统的业务服务已经不能满足人们的需求,"三网融合"已经成为网络业务发展的必然趋势.通过对"三网融合"国内外现状的研究,分析了当今"三网融合"面临的问题,结合通信企业的实际情况,提出采用分布式流媒体技术进行通信企业"三网融合"方案设计,并针对不同规模通信企业,提出了紧凑型组网、城域网本地组网、多级分布式组网三种组网方案.该"三网融合"设计方案可以有效地节省骨干网带宽、保证QoS,提高用户满意度,对各级通信企业搭建多媒体数据中心具有一定推广作用.     

历史记忆与社会实践——以湘西腊尔山高地苗族社会与国家机构的文化互动为例

民间传说由民众口头创作和传播,描述涉及国家、民族的重要的历史人物或历史事件、解释地方风物或习俗。苗族东部方言社区里流传的“九月初九”节日传说文本呈现族群想象与“帝国”之间的联系,过去的形象和有关过去的回忆性知识,是在节日仪式的“杀鸭子”操演中传送和保持。因此,在当代社会语境下民众所言说的“北京正王”和社群的关系也与传说如出一辙。尽管社会成员具有一个共同记忆,但是现在的体验使政府机构表征的国家与由历史记忆产生的想象的国家之间存在矛盾,地方社会基于对过去形象的记忆与地方政府通过民族文化事项互动,实现现存社会秩序的合法化。     

考虑服务约束的第三方仓库收益与设计优化模型

第三方仓库作为服务提供商, 主要以期望收益最大化为目标, 但是必须满足一定的顾客服务标准。针对高需求环境, 考虑顾客服务水平约束, 提出了一个基于排队论的随机设计优化模型以使仓库的期望收益最大化。采用动态优化算法对模型求解, 选取实例进行了数值实验。结果显示, 模型的优化设计显著地提高了高需求环境下该第三方仓库的期望收益。在此基础上, 找到了服务约束的可行范围和有效范围, 为决策者制定服务标准提供了依据。     

秦巴山区退耕还林与连片扶贫攻坚关联性互动机制探讨

因我国贫困地区和生态脆弱地区的空间分布具有高度一致性和重合性,决定了退耕还林与连片扶贫攻坚两项建设工程二者之间存在必然联系。二者存在原因上相近性、空间范围上重合性、目标上一致性、措施上相似性等关联性,有必要将两个工程的实施机构、政策、区域、产业进行整合,使两项工程政策之间协同产生聚合效应。二者之间建立互动机制具有可能性和必要性。     

A graphical evaluation of logistic ridge estimator in mixture experiments

In comparison to other experimental studies, multicollinearity appears frequently in mixture experiments, a special study area of response surface methodology, due to the constraints on the components composing the mixture. In the analysis of mixture experiments by using a special generalized linear model, logistic regression model, multicollinearity causes precision problems in the maximum-likelihood logistic regression estimate. Therefore, effects due to multicollinearity can be reduced to a certain extent by using alternative approaches. One of these approaches is to use biased estimators for the estimation of the coefficients. In this paper, we suggest the use of logistic ridge regression (RR) estimator in the cases where there is multicollinearity during the analysis of mixture experiments using logistic regression. Also, for the selection of the biasing parameter, we use fraction of design space plots for evaluating the effect of the logistic RR estimator with respect to the scaled mean squared error of prediction. The suggested graphical approaches are illustrated on the tumor incidence data set.     

Asymptotic Comparison Between Constant-stress Testing and Step-stress Testing for Type-I Censored Data from Exponential Distribution

By running the life tests at higher stress levels than normal operating conditions, accelerated life testing quickly yields information on the lifetime distribution of a test unit. The lifetime at the design stress is then estimated through extrapolation using a regression model. In constant-stress testing, a unit is tested at a fixed stress level until failure or the termination time point of the test, while step-stress testing allows the experimenter to gradually increase the stress levels at some pre-fixed time points during the test. In this article, the optimal k-level constant-stress and step-stress accelerated life tests are compared for the exponential failure data under Type-I censoring. The objective is to quantify the advantage of using the step-stress testing relative to the constant-stress one. A log-linear relationship between the mean lifetime parameter and stress level is assumed and the cumulative exposure model holds for the effect of changing stress in step-stress testing. The optimal design point is then determined under C-optimality, D-optimality, and A-optimality criteria. The efficiency of step-stress testing compared to constant-stress testing is discussed in terms of the ratio of optimal objective functions based on the information matrix.