利率下降对我国居民跨期消费选择的影响分析

利率下降对居民跨期消费选择影响存在收入效应和替代效应.由于这两种效应对居民当期消费的作用方向完全相反,因而总效应要取决于这两种效应的强弱.对于我国中低收入居民来说,利率下降对其跨期消费选择的收入效应特别明显,替代效应则趋于零,因而降患反而会减少其当期消费数量.对于我国中高收入居民来说,利率下降对其跨期消费选择的替代效应在很大程度上被收入效应所抵消了,因而降息拉动其当期消费也不明显.为了刺激居民消费,除了实施降息政策以外,还必须采取其他政策与之配合.     

基于超总体模型的设计效应分解

本文基于超总体模型研究抽样调查中设计效应的计算问题。首先以随机效应模型为基础，明确了简单随机、二阶段、不等概率和分层抽样对应的超总体模型，进而通过所给模型推导出分层、类集、加权单因素设计效应的计算公式和多因素组合的设计效应计算公式并给出了对应估计量，公式表明：多因素同时存在的组合设计效应等于对应单因素设计效应的乘积。最后，对设计效应的理论值、估计值和真实值之间的关系进行了蒙特卡洛仿真，并利用相对偏倚、相对均方误进行了评价。本文的研究，对复杂抽样设计中正确计算、使用设计效应具有指导意义。     

Replication: Revisiting Tversky and Shafir’s (1992) Disjunction Effect with an extension comparing between and within subject designs

Does uncertainty about an outcome influence decisions? The sure-thing principle (Savage, 1954) posits that it should not, but Tversky and Shafir (1992) found that people regularly violate it in hypothetical gambling and vacation decisions, a phenomenon they termed “disjunction effect”. Very close replications and extensions of Tversky and Shafir (1992) were conducted in this paper (N = 890, MTurk). The target article demonstrated the effect using two paradigms in a between-subject design: here, an extension also testing a within-subject design, with design being randomly assigned was added. These results were consistent with the original findings for the “paying to know“ problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.22, 95% (CI) [0.14, 0.32]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.30, 95% CI [0.24, 0.37]), yet not for the “choice under risk” problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.26, 95% CI [0.14, 0.39]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.11, 95% CI [−0.07, 0.20]). The within-subject extension showed very similar results. Implications for the disjunction effect and judgment and decision-making theory are discussed, and a call for improvements on the statistical understanding of comparisons of between-subject and within-subject designs is introduced. All materials, data, and code are available on https://osf.io/gu58m/.     

消费文化转型的激励机制与“两型社会”的构建

消费文化具有引导、凝聚和激励的社会效应,实现消费文化由传统向现代的转型,对于"资源节约型、环境友好型"社会的构建有着不可或缺的作用.因此,有必要在明确"两型社会"消费文化转型取向的基础上,探求消费文化转型的激励机制,以期对推动"两型社会"的构建进程有所裨益.     

关于汉族、达斡尔族家庭教养方式的跨文化比较研究

本研究采取的是同一地区不同民族跨文化比较研究,目的是通过汉族和达斡尔族学生家长的取样测试,揭示汉族、达斡尔族家庭教养方式的民族差异,探讨有关影响因素,为合理、有效的家庭教育提供科学依据。     

试论少数民族对北京传统民俗文化的影响

从辽代开始 ,北京逐渐成为北方乃至全国的政治、军事和文化中心 ,也成为边疆少数民族文化与中原汉族文化的交汇之地。北京的传统民俗文化 ,特别是服饰、饮食、居住、竞技娱乐、岁时节日等民俗文化 ,都曾深受少数民族 ,尤其是蒙、回、满等民族文化的影响 ,是多元一体中华民族文化的结晶与代表。     

论民族经济学的学科地位与作用

民族经济学于1979年创建,适应了中国多民族国家的国情与社会主义现代化建设需要,具有民族学与经济学的双重学科归属.这门由中国人自己创建的经济学分支学科,在学科理论建设、学术成果积累与专业人才培养方面取得了巨大成就.并通过不可取代的学科地位与鲜明的应用性特征,展现出民族经济学的发展前景.     

A win ratio approach to comparing continuous non‐normal outcomes in clinical trials

Clinical trials are often designed to compare continuous non‐normal outcomes. The conventional statistical method for such a comparison is a non‐parametric Mann–Whitney test, which provides a P‐value for testing the hypothesis that the distributions of both treatment groups are identical, but does not provide a simple and straightforward estimate of treatment effect. For that, Hodges and Lehmann proposed estimating the shift parameter between two populations and its confidence interval (CI). However, such a shift parameter does not have a straightforward interpretation, and its CI contains zero in some cases when Mann–Whitney test produces a significant result. To overcome the aforementioned problems, we introduce the use of the win ratio for analysing such data. Patients in the new and control treatment are formed into all possible pairs. For each pair, the new treatment patient is labelled a ‘winner’ or a ‘loser’ if it is known who had the more favourable outcome. The win ratio is the total number of winners divided by the total numbers of losers. A 95% CI for the win ratio can be obtained using the bootstrap method. Statistical properties of the win ratio statistic are investigated using two real trial data sets and six simulation studies. Results show that the win ratio method has about the same power as the Mann–Whitney method. We recommend the use of the win ratio method for estimating the treatment effect (and CI) and the Mann–Whitney method for calculating the P‐value for comparing continuous non‐Normal outcomes when the amount of tied pairs is small. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal Disaggregation: Methods,Information Loss,and Diagnostics

This research provides a generalized framework to disaggregate lower-frequency time series and evaluate the disaggregation performance. The proposed framework combines two models in separate stages: a linear regression model to exploit related independent variables in the first stage and a state–space model to disaggregate the residual from the regression in the second stage. For the purpose of providing a set of practical criteria for assessing the disaggregation performance, we measure the information loss that occurs during temporal aggregation while examining what effects take place when aggregating data. To validate the proposed framework, we implement Monte Carlo simulations and provide two empirical studies. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.