风险投资家的双重逆向选择风险规避机制

风险投资过程中,由于信息的不对称,投资者与风险投资家之间、风险投资家与风险企业家之间存在着双重逆向选择风险。在融资阶段的信号传递机制中,作为代理人的风险投资家,选择融资计划书信号,向作为委托人的投资者传递其能力信号,投资者据此修正自己的先验概率,然后根据后验概率,与风险投资家签定合同规避风险;在投资阶段的信息甄别机制中,作为中间委托人的风险投资家先提供合同,这时唯一可能是分离均衡,即不同类型的风险企业家选择不同的合同规避风险。     

转移价格在跨国公司中的作用及其限制——揭开跨国公司巧取豪夺的面纱

转移价格是跨国公司在母公司与子公司、子公司与子公司之间进行内部贸易所采用的价格 ,是人为调高或调低价格来转移利润而采取的重要手段 ,使子公司经营处于“亏损”状态 ,从而使东道国蒙受巨大经济损失。为此 ,各东道国为维护本国的合法权益而采取多种防范和监控措施来限制跨国公司用转移价格来实现其整体总利润额的增加。     

政府经济职能创新的路径选择

当前 ,在政府经济职能重新定位过程中 ,我们应特别关注以下三个问题 :产权保护制度、限政政府模式、社会风险承受能力。建立产权保护制度是政府经济职能重新定位的出发点 ;构建限政政府模式是社会主义市场经济的逻辑要求 ;以改革促稳定、建立良好的社会保障制度 ,从而提高社会风险承受能力 ,是为改革提供稳定社会基础的必经之途。按照这三方面的要求来创新政府经济职能 ,就可以使政府的经济职能基本上能够适应市场经济体制对它的客观要求     

美元、日元、英镑的中长期汇率预测方法研究

文章运用组合预测方法对中长期汇率走势进行分析 ,并根据贝特斯 (Bates)和格朗格 (Granger)提出的组合预测方法 ,对美元兑日元、美元兑英镑的中长期汇率进行了预测 ,提出组合预测为一种较好的方法。     

水务工程BOT项目与风险规避初探

国家卫生部2001年6月7日颁布的《生活饮用水水质卫生规范》和国民及政府对环境保护的要求标准,给进入21世纪的中国水务工程市场带来了喜人的市场机遇,但是也存在着巨大的融资困难。BOT模式是解决融资困难的一条极其有效的途径。内资民营企业的加入将成为中国BOT水务项目的主体。通过实例对BOT水务工程存在的风险以及规避方法进行了初步探讨。     

论网络空间的社会风险

互联网的崛起为人们的日常生活、学习和工作带来了诸多便利,然而,作为一种全新的信息技术范式,互联网也给人类社会生活带来了许多新的风险。文章分析和论述了网络风险的各种表现形式、网络风险的实质以及网络风险产生的根源,以期为网络风险管理提供借鉴。     

客户价值模型及对企业价值影响的研究

本文在对现有客户价值组成估算方法及企业股东价值(Shareholder Value,SHV)理念的局限性进行评价和分析的基础上,提出了计算客户整个生命周期价值(Lifetime Value,LTV)的客户价值(Customer Value,CV)模型;并简要分析了客户价值对提升企业价值的促进作用。通过运用CV模型计算出更准确的FCFF,本文亦提出了新的SHV计算模型。文章最后对模型的数据获得途径进行了简要介绍。     

生命意识的激活与中国的现代喜剧

中国古代的喜剧美具有一种崇生意识的原始基因,但其受到了封建正统文化的长期压抑和扭曲。20世纪初,随着封建传统权威的颓落和科学思想、个性意识的传播,备受压抑的生命意识逐渐被激活。中国现代喜剧的实际创作由此产生了一种重视“趣味”和着意发掘丰满人性的整体趋向。     

The Role of Cancer Risk in the Regulation of Industrial Pollution

The extent of carcinogen regulation under existing U.S. environmental statutes is assessed by developing measures of the scope and stringency of regulation. While concern about cancer risk has played an important political role in obtaining support for pollution control programs, it has not provided the predominant rationale for most regulatory actions taken to date. Less than 20% of all standards established to limit concentrations of chemicals in various media address carcinogens. Restrictions on chemical use are more frequently based on concerns about noncancer human health or ecological effects. Of the chemicals in commercial use which have been identified as potential human carcinogens on the basis of rodent bioassays, only a small proportion are regulated. There is an inverse relationship between the scope of regulatory coverage and the stringency of regulatory requirements: the largest percentages of identified carcinogens are affected by the least stringent requirements, such as information disclosure. Standards based on de minimis cancer risk levels have been established for only 10% of identified carcinogens and are restricted to one medium: water. Complete bans on use have affected very few chemicals. The general role that carcinogenicity now plays in the regulatory process is not dramatically different from that of other adverse human health effects: if a substance is identified as a hazard, it may eventually be subject to economically achievable and technically feasible restrictions.     

Physiologically Based Liver Modeling and Risk Assessment

Because of the inherent complexity of biological systems, there is often a choice between a number of apparently equally applicable physiologically based models to describe uptake and metabolism processes in toxicology or risk assessment. These models may fit the particular data sets of interest equally well, but may give quite different parameter estimates or predictions under different (extrapolated) conditions. Such competing models can be discriminated by a number of methods, including potential refutation by means of strategic experiments, and their ability to suitably incorporate all relevant physiological processes. For illustration, three currently used models for steady-state hepatic elimination--the venous equilibration model, the parallel tube model, and the distributed sinusoidal perfusion model--are reviewed and compared with particular reference to their application in the area of risk assessment. The ability of each of the models to describe and incorporate such physiological processes as protein binding, precursor-metabolite relations and hepatic zones of elimination, capillary recruitment, capillary heterogeneity, and intrahepatic shunting is discussed. Differences between the models in hepatic parameter estimation, extrapolation to different conditions, and interspecies scaling are discussed, and criteria for choosing one model over the others are presented. In this case, the distributed model provides the most general framework for describing physiological processes taking place in the liver, and has so far not been experimentally refuted, as have the other two models. These simpler models may, however, provide useful bounds on parameter estimates and on extrapolations and risk assessments.