Empirical Bayes rules and Gaussian processes

In this paper we study empirical Bayes (e.B.) rules from a viewpoint which has not yet got any attention in the literature. Since an e.B. estimator can be seen as an estimate of an unknown function, namely the true Bayes estimator, it is natural to consider e.B. estimators as stochastic processes. In this paper we make a first attempt in the direction of this approach. For a certain class of e.B. estimators for the continuous one-parameter exponential family, we investigate the global behaviour on finite intervals. It is shown that the difference between the e.B. and the true Bayes estimator can be represented as a certain type of Gaussian process plus a remainder which is uniformly of smaller order. Several applications of this result are given.     

中国选择和平崛起新战略的内在动因

与二战后日本、德国在国际社会全面限制与强大压力下形成的外源被动式和平崛起战略不同,中国和平崛起新战略渊源于中国文明的和平本质,根源于改革开放以来中国国家身份的再定义,是典型的内生主动式战略,这决定了中国必将走出一条和平崛起的新道路。     

西周“德治”思想再探讨

西周的"德治"思想是在周人天命观的支配下建立起来的一套针对以周王为首的高级贵族的政治统治思想,它是一个有具体内容的政治概念,反映了建立在血缘基础上的早期国家政治治理的特点.     

征地制度:城乡差距的一个经济动因

现行征地制度作为计划经济条件下降低工业化、城市化成本的产物,越来越不适应市场经济发展的需要,深刻的体制矛盾导致了严重的弊端。本文进而分析了征地制度对目前城乡差距扩大的影响,表明征地制度已取代“剪刀差”而成为农民利益直接受损的主要经济因素,并对社会的正常运行产生了多方面的消极影响。从建设社会主义和谐社会的需要出发,征地制度的改革势在必行,从而寻求一种能使农民分享经济发展和城市化成果的体制安排,使城乡差距得到抑制,并提出了改革的几点思路。     

资信评估中违约率的度量及应用

首先讨论了违约率在资信评估中的意义,接着提出了违约率的度量方法以及考虑其他因素时的违约率调整,最后给出了违约率在资信评估中的应用。     

新形势下如何提高高校毕业生就业率

针对目前我国劳动力市场整体供大于求的供需矛盾,本文从加强就业工作队伍建设、改革教育教学机制、建立全程就业指导体系、积极开辟就业渠道 4个方面探讨了如何提高高校毕业生的就业率。它不仅关系到高校的前途命运,直接影响我国教育事业的发展,更关系到国家的长治久安。     

Random Weighted Bootstrap Method for Recurrent Events with Informative Censoring

Using the data from the AIDS Link to Intravenous Experiences cohort study as an example, an informative censoring model was used to characterize the repeated hospitalization process of a group of patients. Under the informative censoring assumption, the estimators of the baseline rate function and the regression parameters were shown to be related to a latent variable. Hence, it becomes impractical to directly estimate the unknown quantities in the moments of the estimators for the bandwidth selection of a smoothing estimator and the construction of confidence intervals, which are respectively based on the asymptotic mean squared errors and the asymptotic distributions of the estimators. To overcome these difficulties, we develop a random weighted bootstrap procedure to select appropriate bandwidths and to construct approximated confidence intervals. One can see that our method is simple and faster to implement from a practical point of view, and is at least as accurate as other bootstrap methods. In this article, it is shown that the proposed method is useful through the performance of a Monte Carlo simulation. An application of our procedure is also illustrated by a recurrent event sample of intravenous drug users for inpatient cares over time.     

跳出"历史周期率"的理论指南--"三个代表"重要思想对于巩固和加强党的执政地位的探索

跳出"历史周期率"是现代政治学讨论的热点问题.毛泽东、邓小平从不同的角度对跳出"历史周期率"进行了有意义的探索."三个代表"重要思想从社会物质基础、思想基础和群众基础三个方面,提出了巩固和加强党的执政地位的基本思想,成为新时期跳出"历史周期率"的理论指南.     

Armitage-Doll Two-Stage Model: Implications and Extension

The objective of this paper is twofold: (1) to provide insight on the simplified MVK model of carcinogenesis (a model proposed by Moolgavkar and colleagues) by revealing the relationship between the Armitage-Doll two-stage model and the simplified MVK model; and (2) to extend the Armitage-Doll two-stage model to one with time-varying (piece-wise constant) parameters. It is shown that the simplified MVK model is a special case of the Armitage-Doll two-stage model, and many applications of the simplified MVK model involving intermittent exposures or exposures to different compounds in different time periods can be derived easily from the Armitage-Doll two-stage model with piece-wise constant parameters. The limitations of the Armitage-Doll two-stage model are discussed.     

硅氧化物反应离子刻蚀均匀性研究(英文)

提出了提高径向刻蚀均匀性的一种新颖的方法。在反应离子刻蚀系统中,采用等离子体控制环调节硅氧化物的径向刻蚀速率,刻蚀均匀性在等效于直径为15 cm 硅片上可以达到±3%.