Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Information and communication technology adoption in micro and small firms: Can internet access improve labour productivity?

The rapid spread of information and communication technologies (ICT) may increase firms’ productivity with important consequences for job creation and for economic growth. This article contributes to this discussion by analysing the impact of internet adoption on labour productivity and the mechanisms shaping this relationship in Peruvian micro and small manufacturing firms over the period 2011–2013. The article estimates a reduced form where labour productivity is a function of internet adoption and other explanatory factors. Internet adoption is instrumented using a measure of the availability of financial opportunities for micro and small firms in Peru. Findings indicate that internet adoption: (a) increases firms’ labour productivity; (b) reallocates employment away from temporary administrative workers and non‐remunerated workers and expands employment of permanent production workers; (c) leads to the formalization of labour relationships, to the implementation of new organizational practices and to the improvement of training measures. While changes in employment and formalization of workers are linked to labour productivity gains, increases in training measures and organizational changes do not generate any additional productivity increase. Policies oriented to promote the adoption of ICT in micro and small firms can be beneficial to close the productivity gap with larger firms in Peru. Moreover, policies directed to the formalization of the workforce can provide an extra benefit, i.e. additional labour productivity gains in firms adopting the internet. Finally, policies oriented to the development of digital skills are also important to ease the re‐employment of those workers losing their jobs and the achievement of additional productivity gains that new organizational practices can provide.     

The stranger the better: support and solidarity in the 2011 students’ protests in Chile

This paper analyses the legitimation dynamics of the student protests in Chile 2011, explaining how the support of ‘strangers’ strengthened its position and endurance. By analysing interviews with both activists and uninvolved citizens, I describe a steady pattern whereby they express the strength and legitimacy of the movement by assessing the ‘abstraction’ of the link between protesters and their supporters. The more abstract these relations – the stranger supporters are – the most relevant and meaningful is their support. Beyond establishing the worthiness of protesters’ claims, strangers provide protesters with a mandate, fostering the movement’s cohesion and thus affecting its ability to endure through the conflict. While the literature has mostly looked at adherents as only potential (or failed) constituents, I argue that support that remains external plays a crucial role in social movements’ chances of success. This support needs, however, to avoid being framed as insufficient engagement. Further analysis shows that the distinction between protesters and strangers often requires active boundary work, allowing the movement to maximize the benefits of strangers’ support while managing its risks. The relation between these boundaries, the efficiency of different contention tactics and their adaptation is analysed here. The study argues that strangeness can involve very different, even opposed phenomena, which are often confounded, namely ‘otherness’ and ‘abstraction’. Critically drawing upon Simmel, I explain how it is ‘abstraction’ in particular that helps our understanding of the role of strangers in social movements and consider how this distinction could enrich research on the symbolic aspects of contentious politics.     

网络文学版权保护探析

侵犯网络文学著作权尤其是信息网络传播权的现象在当下十分严重。侵权的模式包括"云霄阁模式"和"百度模式"。它的背后既体现了社会公众、网络服务提供者和版权人之间的利益平衡,也是互联网精神、权利意识和商业模式三者博弈的结果。解决侵犯网络文学版权的问题需要注重培育公众正确的互联网意识、完善法律制度建设、创新文学网站的盈利模式及大力发挥社会组织的作用。保护网络文学著作权对创新虚拟社会管理有重要意义。     

Deliberative street politics and sacralized dissent: Morocco’s 20 February movement and the Jamaa Al Adl Wal Ihsane

During a wave of protest in 2011, Morocco was home to its own uprisings, spurred on by the 20 February movement. Unlike its neighbors to the east, the Moroccan regime was never dismantled. So, what was the sociopolitical significance of the 20 February movement? This profile examines the landscape at the time of uprisings and presents brief interview data to make the case that these protests facilitated a political articulation and a new deliberative street politics.     

网络环境下顾客参与品牌价值共创模式与机制研究——以小米手机为例

随着网络信息技术的发展,顾客通过互联网平台参与产品开发与更新、主导网络口碑传播等方式,已成为品牌价值创造的重要主体,深刻改变着品牌管理模式.本文以小米手机为例,借助扎根理论研究方法,对相关质性资料进行内容分析,得到如下结论:小米手机品牌的快速成长得益于其建立了契合互联网“专注、极致、快、信任”的企业文化和团队理念,将产品定位为发烧友而生的年轻消费者群体,积极进行线上、线下交流互动,将顾客培育成为粉丝和发烧友,引导顾客积极参与产品开发、更新以及口碑传播,从而实现小米手机品牌的快速成长.在此基础上,通过理论检验和命题发展,总结出顾客参与网络品牌价值共创的文化机制、产品机制、互动机制、参与机制、口碑机制及其相应命题.     

A Research on the Social Role and Status of Tibetan Females as they Appear in Internet Images

Previous research on Tibetan women’s identity and status are mainly concentrat-ed in the role and function of women in the family, production,labor,work and religious affairs within Tibetan society. Ho...     

旅游城市品牌粉丝生成机制与重构利用——基于张家界粉丝现象的分析

运用虚拟民族志的研究方法对张家界粉丝叙述文本进行考察,发现了旅游城市品牌粉丝生成机制;嫁接品牌虚拟社群到这个机制中,构造社会化网络时代旅游城市品牌粉丝经济模型,提出了政策建议。     

互联网驱动产业结构高级化效应分析

经济新常态下,互联网已经成为中国经济转型升级的重要引擎。基于中国2003—2013年30个省市(区)的省级面板数据,实证分析互联网发展对中国产业结构高级化影响效应。研究结果表明:在静态上,互联网发展对产业结构升级具有显著的正向影响;互联网发展对产业结构高级化的溢出效应表现出地区差异;产业结构高级化受其前一期的显著影响,表明产业结构高级化进程具有显著的惯性。     

论戏剧与科技的互动

艺术与科技有着天然的渊源关系。在艺术家族里 ,从科技的发展中受惠最多的可谓戏剧 ,它在科技引导与催促下的发展是艺术与技术互动的典型样式。因此 ,从戏剧发展的历史上 ,可以透视科技发展的轨迹。但戏剧并非单方面地受惠 ,科技的进步 ,物质世界的丰富与创新 ,戏剧艺术也发挥了独特作用。随着网络科技的发展 ,不仅使戏剧观众与戏剧创造者形成了新的互动关系 ,而且 ,使一种并非将舞台戏剧搬上网络的网络戏剧的诞生成为可能。在未来社会发展中 ,戏剧艺术与科学技术的互动与联姻 ,将使二者都获得无限的生命力