Evidential inference for diffusion-type processes

This article analyses diffusion-type processes from a new point-of-view. Consider two statistical hypotheses on a diffusion process. We do not use a classical test to reject or accept one hypothesis using the Neyman–Pearson procedure and do not involve Bayesian approach. As an alternative, we propose using a likelihood paradigm to characterizing the statistical evidence in support of these hypotheses. The method is based on evidential inference introduced and described by Royall [Royall R. Statistical evidence: a likelihood paradigm. London: Chapman and Hall; 1997]. In this paper, we extend the theory of Royall to the case when data are observations from a diffusion-type process instead of iid observations. The empirical distribution of likelihood ratio is used to formulate the probability of strong, misleading and weak evidences. Since the strength of evidence can be affected by the sampling characteristics, we present a simulation study that demonstrates these effects. Also we try to control misleading evidence and reduce them by adjusting these characteristics. As an illustration, we apply the method to the Microsoft stock prices.     

The cost‐effectiveness of UK parenting programmes for preventing children's behaviour problems – a review of the evidence

Parenting programmes are widely used in the UK, promoted in policy documents as a cost‐effective way for children's services to address behaviour problems and thereby the longer‐term costs associated with conduct disorders, particularly antisocial behaviour and criminality. To explore whether these programmes are a cost‐effective component of family intervention, this paper examines evidence from cost‐effectiveness studies based on randomized controlled trials, modelling studies estimating longer‐term costs and outcomes, and studies estimating costs of UK parenting programmes, including evidence from routine practice. Findings indicate that parenting programmes have the potential to be cost‐saving in the long term; however, gaps in the evidence include: lack of follow‐up of families who drop out of programmes, absence of control groups in longer‐term follow‐ups, and little information about costs and effects of programmes in routine practice. The size of savings resulting from implementation of effective parenting programmes will depend on the extent to which families likely to be most costly to society attend and experience lasting benefit.     

Improving Weight of Evidence Approaches to Chemical Evaluations

Federal and other regulatory agencies often use or claim to use a weight of evidence (WoE) approach in chemical evaluation. Their approaches to the use of WoE, however, differ significantly, rely heavily on subjective professional judgment, and merit improvement. We review uses of WoE approaches in key articles in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature, and find significant variations. We find that a hypothesis‐based WoE approach, developed by Lorenz Rhomberg et al., can provide a stronger scientific basis for chemical assessment while improving transparency and preserving the appropriate scope of professional judgment. Their approach, while still evolving, relies on the explicit specification of the hypothesized basis for using the information at hand to infer the ability of an agent to cause human health impacts or, more broadly, affect other endpoints of concern. We describe and endorse such a hypothesis‐based WoE approach to chemical evaluation.     

Identifying as an evidence-based social worker: the influence of attitudes,access, confidence,and education

This study explored United States-based social workers’ (N = 152) attitudes toward, access to, and confidence in engaging in evidence-based practice (EBP), the extent to which social work education prepared them to engage in EBP, and the factors that contributed to their identification as an evidence-based practitioner. Findings indicated that although practitioners had a positive attitude toward engaging in EBP, they were only moderately confident in doing so, rarely accessed evidence, and were only moderately prepared through their education. Believing that EBP should be implemented, more educational preparation, and positive attitudes contributed to greater identification as an evidence-based practitioner, areas that social work and continuing education should further support to enhance social workers’ EBP skills.     

民事司法鉴定性质的证据法理分析

在德国、日本及我国台湾地区的民事证据理论上，将鉴定人视为证据方法存在不妥之处。鉴定本质上是法官在鉴定人之辅助下，以被鉴定之物为证据方法、原则上须依当事人申请而启动的证据调查之职权行为。鉴定结论为证据资料。我国学界对司法鉴定之性质的界定有欠准确，因而导致民事司法鉴定外延泛化、混同鉴定之独立性与中立性、对鉴定结论之性质认识错误以及忽视鉴定实施过程中对当事人的程序权利保障等缺陷。     

律师伪证罪的困境与出路

《刑法》第306条有关律师伪证罪的规定一直面临着悖逆民心的困境，但其原因并非实体内容不公正，而是欠缺程序上的合理限制，由此导致它沦为检察机关实施职业报复的工具。将律师纪律处分或行政处罚程序作为刑事诉讼程序的程序性前提，把取消会员资格的行业处分或吊销律师职业证书的行政处罚作为刑事诉讼的实体性前提，并限制刑事侦查的调查范围，可以合理地限制检察机关的偏见和恣意，带领该规定走出当前的困境。     

论案件事实信息的法律属性

诉讼证据中蕴涵的案件事实信息的收集、运用、识别和认定都应当符合法律规定的原则和程序。诉讼中要突出案件事实信息的法律属性,必须强化民事诉讼中的原被告双方或者刑事诉讼中的控辩双方的具有对抗性的举证和质证、分析和反驳,同时,法官应着重审查原被告或控辩双方举示的证据是否符合法律规定的条件,并对诉讼证据中蕴涵或留存的案件事实信息是否真实,以及这些案件事实信息是否就是证据事实,这些证据事实是否能够足以证明(即恢复或还原)案件事实,作为定案的根据等进行识别和认定。     

Bayesian t-tests for correlations and partial correlations

In this paper, we develop Bayes factor based testing procedures for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The proposed Bayesian tests are obtained by restricting the class of the alternative hypotheses to maximize the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the Bayes factor is larger than a specified threshold. It turns out that they depend simply on the frequentist t-statistics with the associated critical values and can thus be easily calculated by using a spreadsheet in Excel and in fact by just adding one more step after one has performed the frequentist correlation tests. In addition, they are able to yield an identical decision with the frequentist paradigm, provided that the evidence threshold of the Bayesian tests is determined by the significance level of the frequentist paradigm. We illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures through simulated and real-data examples.     

证人出庭作证难的法律思考

证人不愿出庭作证、证人出庭难是在我国特定的历史文化背景下衍生出来的一种客观现实。这种客观现实是由多种原因造成的,既有文化心理上的原因,也有价值层面上的原因,更有制度层面上的原因。因此,考虑我国的国情,在不违背历史文化传统和现有道德规范的前提下,建立尽善尽美的证人制度是我们每一个法律工作者努力追求的目标。