中国油砂富集区域资源勘探开发序列研究——基于探索性空间数据分析

以中国油砂资源富集的省域为研究对象,综合运用SPSS和GeoDA软件,对中国区域油砂资源丰度和投资环境的空间差异分析后发现:中国油砂富集区域的资源丰度与投资环境差异较大,资源丰度较高的区域主要集中于西部,而投资环境较优的区域则主要集中于东部和中部;资源丰度的全局自相关特征明显,存在着相似值的空间集聚特征;依据油砂资源丰度与区域投资环境组合类型的空间特征,可以规划出中国区域油砂资源的勘探开发序列。     

DOUBLE LENGTH ARTIFICIAL REGRESSIONS FOR TESTING SPATIAL DEPENDENCE

This paper derives two simple artificial Double Length Regressions (DLR) to test for spatial dependence. The first DLR tests for spatial lag dependence while the second DLR tests for spatial error dependence. Both artificial regressions utilize only least squares residuals of the restricted model and are therefore easy to compute. These tests are illustrated using two simple examples. In addition, Monte Carlo experiments are performed to study the small sample performance of these tests. As expected, these DLR tests have similar performance to their corresponding LM counterparts.     

Influence and residuals in restricte generalized linear models

A particular influence measure for restricted regression models is reviewed in this paper. We give em- phasis on establishing regularity conditions to apply the proposed influence measure in restricted gen- eralized linear models. The development of conditional residuals is also discussed. In particular, a sim- ulation study was conducted in order to compare the distributions of the proposed residuals for various generalized linear models. Finally, an application is given.     

Testing for normally in censored regressions

This paper derives a Lagrange Multiplier test for normality in censored regressions. The test is derived against the generalized log-gamma distribution, in which normal is a special case. The resulting test statistic coincides to some extent with previously suggested score and conditional moment tests. Estimation of the variance is performed by using the matrix of second order derivatives in order to get an easy to use test statistic. Small sample performance of the test is studied and compared to other tests by Monte Carlo experiments.     

Composite Forecasting: An Integrated Approach and Optimality Reconsidered

This article shows when the theoretical Lagrange multiplier solution for combining forecasts has a regression representation. This solution is not optimal in general because it imposes a restriction on an otherwise more general linear form. The optimal linear predictor based on N forecasts is presented. This predictor is or is not a regression function depending on whether the latter function is linear. I also show that the Lagrange multiplier solution may often be nearly optimal. Hence, when estimating a composite forecast, the restriction imposed by this solution may prove useful. This observation is supported in an empirical example.     

A Locally Most Mean Powerful Based Score Test for ARCH and GARCH Regression Disturbances

This article considers the twin problems of testing for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH disturbances in the linear regression model. A feature of these testing problems, ignored by the standard Lagrange multiplier test, is that they are onesided in nature. A test that exploits this one-sided aspect is constructed based on the sum of the scores. The small-sample-size and power properties of two versions of this test under both normal and leptokurtic disturbances are investigated via a Monte Carlo experiment. The results indicate that both versions of the new test typically have superior power to two versions of the Lagrange multiplier test and possibly also more accurate asymptotic critical values.     

我国保险投资组合的模拟和金融风险测量研究

 本文利用Copula函数的概念研究了保险投资组合多元金融数据的统计模拟。根据我国保险投资的特殊性,我们选用沪深300指数、基金指数、企债指数和国债指数四种风险资产来模拟保险投资组合中的股票、基金、企债和国债收益。基于模拟的结果分别利用传统近似方法（Add-VaR、N-VaR和H-VaR）和Copula方法计算了投资组合的总风险;相对于Copula-VaR方法,Add-VaR显著高估了风险,N-VaR显著低估了风险,H-VaR对于Copula-VaR的近似效果比较好,但其也高估了风险,即H-VaR相对于Copula-VaR是一种比较保守的方法。另外,我们分析了投资组合权重变化和Copula函数的选择对投资组合总风险的影响。     

Optimal investment,consumption, and life insurance in an incomplete market

ABSTRACT

In this article, we solve an optimal insurance-consumption-investment problem for a wage earner in an incomplete market, where the stock price has a mean-reverting drift. By using the martingale method, we analyze this problem and derive the optimal strategies. Explicit solutions are found for both power and logarithmic utilities.     

响应变量缺失下半参数变系数EV模型的约束统计推断

文章研究了半参数变系数EV模型在线性约束条件下的估计和检验问题,当响应变量缺失、非参数部分协变量带有测量误差时,利用局部纠偏的Profile最小二乘估计、Lagrange乘子方法和借补技术构造了回归模型参数分量两类纠偏约束估计量。此外,为了检验线性约束条件,构造了借补的Profile Lagrange乘子检验统计量,并通过蒙特卡洛数值模拟验证估计量和检验统计量的有效性。     

上海文化创意产业投融资模式与政策研究

文化创意产业的投融资是产业金融领域的一大普遍性难题。上海致力于打造国际金融中心和国际文化大都市,有责任也有义务加快文化金融服务创新,成为全国文化金融创新的领头者。但从银行贷款、投资基金、上市融资、政府投资等几种模式比较来看,上海文化投融资现状不容乐观。调研发现,上海文化创意产业投融资难有着自身的特殊原因,需要在突破投融资模式政策举措的选择上引起关注。鉴此,综合已有研究及国内外成功经验,从信息对接、重点聚焦、主体示范等方面提出若干对策建议。