新型农业经营主体的经营绩效与差异分析——基于农村固定观察点的数据调查

新型农业经营主体的经营绩效关系到其可持续发展。采用农村固定观察点对我国各省区新型农业经营主体的调查数据,运用随机前沿分析法,对不同类型的经营主体的经营绩效进行分析,并进一步分析新型农业经营主体的差异性。结果表明：相比小农户而言,新型农业经营主体的经营绩效相对较高,但是其平均绩效还有很大的改善空间;新型农业经营主体面临融资难和人才缺乏的问题,且该问题在农民专业合作社中最为突出;我国家庭农场的经营绩效在三种新型农业经营主体中是最高的,其次是农业（龙头）企业,最后是农民专业合作社。对此,提出应完善土地“三权分置”机制,实现新型农业经营主体的规模化生产,进一步解决其融资难和人才缺乏的问题,加大政策扶持力度等建议。     

政策工具视角的中国装配式建筑政策文本量化研究

为了更科学地进行政策分析和研究,评测已有装配式建筑政策体系完善与否,从政策工具的视角,将基本政策工具、装配式建筑驱动主体和产业价值链组合成一个三维研究框架.利用该框架,运用内容分析法对中国现有13份中央政府级装配式建筑政策文本中采用的政策工具进行计量和分析.得出环境型和供给型政策工具过溢,针对企业和科研机构的政策工具缺失,装配式建筑产业价值链维度的政策工具滞后于其价值实现环节等结论,并为完善装配式建筑政策体系提出建议.     

Are VAT reforms an effective tool for promoting culture? A quasi-experiment in Spain

Sponsoring culture is a long-term profit-generating investment that public policy makers can achieve by means of Pigouvian subsidy or tax schemes. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the three VAT reforms implemented between 2012 and 2018 (one tax raise reform and two tax cut reforms) in the cultural sector in Spain. We first provide visual evidence and empirical estimates of the tax shifting and the distribution of the VAT burden between consumers and producers. We then use a regression discontinuity design to assess the causal effects of these VAT reforms on performing acts and cinema consumption (both in the extensive and the intensive margin). Several interesting findings arise from our results. First, we find that producers only passed through 45% of the VAT cut to consumer prices. Second, the effect of the 2017 VAT reduction on performing arts slightly increased the number of households consuming these cultural services, whereas the 2018 tax cut on cinema had no significant effect in the number of moviegoers (extensive margin). Third, the cultural spending per household conditional on participation (intensive margin) increased after the two VAT rate reductions. Finally, we test for asymmetries in pass-through with respect to the 2012 tax raise and we find (i) no evidence of prices responding more strongly to increases than to decreases in VAT, (ii) a symmetric response of the number of households consuming these cultural services, and (iii) an asymmetric response of the average cultural spending conditional on participation.     

Assumption-aware tools and agency; an interrogation of the primary artifacts of the program evaluation and design profession in working with complex evaluands and complex contexts

Like artisans in a professional guild, we evaluators create tools to suit our ever evolving practice. The tools we use as evaluators are the primary artifacts of our profession, reflect our practice and embody an amalgamation of paradigms and assumptions. With the increasing shifts in evaluation purposes from judging program worth to understanding how programs work, the evaluator’s role is changing to that of facilitating stakeholders in a learning process. This involves clarifying purposes and choices, as well as unearthing critical assumptions. In such a role, evaluators become major tool-users and begin to innovate with small refinements or produce completely new tools to fit a specific challenge or context.We interrogate the form and function of 12 tools used by evaluators when working with complex evaluands and complex contexts. The form is described in terms of traditional qualitative techniques and particular characteristics of the elements, use and presentation of each tool. Then the function of each tool is analyzed with respect to articulating assumptions and affecting the agency of evaluators and stakeholders in complex contexts.     

基于灰色系统的小型精密机床热误差模型

为减少热误差对数控机床加工精度的影响,文章利用灰色系统研究热误差建模。初步分析机床热源后,应用灰 色关联度分析结合模糊分类方法优化得到13组关键温度测点,结合小型精密五轴机床处于实际加工状态时的实验数 据,应用GM(I,N)灰色结构进行建模。将实际数据与拟合数据进行对比分析,结果表明此灰色系统模型具有计算方法 成熟、鲁棒性强的特点,适用于机床热误差研究。     

结构性货币政策工具对农商银行风险承担的影响

基于2014—2018年21家农商银行的微观数据构建动态面板模型,采用系统广义矩估计方法分析结构性货币政策工具对农商银行风险承担的影响。研究发现:结构性货币政策工具对农商银行风险承担的影响差异显著,银行层面变量对农商银行风险承担的影响差异显著,宏观经济层面变量对农商银行风险承担的影响差异显著。据此,提出优化货币政策工具、健全宏观监管体系、提升风险监管能力等对策,以有效控制结构性货币政策工具对农村商业银行风险承担的影响,维护宏观金融市场的稳定。     

“后扶贫时代”生态型贫困治理的“内卷化”风险及其防范对策

当前,我国生态扶贫主要目标任务基本完成,对于解决生态脆弱地区的贫困问题起到了积极作用,但在既有的生态扶贫进程中,局部地区仍然面临生态扶贫政策精准性和系统性存在不足、生态扶贫政策减贫成果巩固困难、生态脆弱地区贫困群体能力提升欠缺等困境,这成了“后扶贫时代”生态型贫困治理所要应对的挑战,其可能导致返贫、生态系统破坏和路径依赖等方面的生态扶贫“内卷化”风险,并将造成不利于治理能力提升和降低贫困群体获得感等危害。对此,需要准确识别这些风险,并通过适用保障型、激励型和培育型政策工具,优化“后扶贫时代”的生态型贫困治理,进而消除“内卷化”风险。     

石景山制铁所相关数据考

本文通过考证,修正日本侵略者统治石景山制铁所时的三项重要数据。这些数据曾长期被广泛使用,具体为1944年3月发生31812起事故,是由于读错了文献,将当月所有员工的事假统计当作事故来理解;日本统治下的石景山制铁所占石景山地区的土地面积应该是1676228平方米(1.676228平方公里),为有关出版物所述的35000亩(23.331平方公里)的7.18%;石景山制铁所员工最多时是1944年10月,为2.4万人,不是有关出版物所述的5.9万人。     

贵州民族地区农村剩余劳动力转移之思考

农村剩余劳动力转移是建设新农村的必然要求和结果,我国新农村建设的进程,就是农业人口逐步向非农业转移的过程。协调农村经济发展是解决民族地区农村剩余劳动力的一项重大决策创新。加入WTO后,我省民族地区农村剩余劳动力转移的形势更加严峻。因此,我们必须在城乡协调发展的思路下,坚持农村城市化、农村工业化、农业产业化、农民知识化、农民转移组织化等“五化”联动,促进民族地区农村剩余劳动力转移,为建设新农村起推动作用。     

1958—1965年中国邮政网路发展及其影响探析

邮政网路是强化通信事业发展、促进社会进步的必要条件。自“一五计划”后的1958年至“文革”前的1965年,随着我国邮政网路的持续建设,邮政局所在精简中不断发展,且机动运输邮路取得长足进展,邮政运输工具特别是机械化工具获得了大幅进步,进而促进邮政相关业务发展,并对国民经济恢复和建设产生重要影响。