Predicting EPA''s Forthcoming CO Standards in Light of New Clinical Evidence

For the past several years, the EPA has been monitoring clinical studies on the adverse health effects of heart patients' exposure to carbon monoxide. This paper examines the impact of three such studies (including the multi-center CO study organized by the Health Effects Institute) on the forthcoming EPA standards for carbon monoxide. Eleven peer-nominated specialists with expertise in environmental science and public policy were interviewed according to a specific protocol. Overall, the experts felt that the HEI study would receive greater weight than the other two studies in the regulatory process for a variety of technical reasons. Weighting each expert opinion equally, we conclude that there is about a 0.69 probability that the CO standards will be retained at their present levels, a 0.28 probability that the standards will be tightened, and a 0.03 probability that the standards will be relaxed. When asked to imagine that the HEI data were never collected and then asked to reassess their probability judgments, the mean probability judgment that the standards will be relaxed rose to 0.11, while the mean probability judgment that the standards will be tightened fell to 0.20. A modest degree of variability in expert opinion is reported in the paper. While the HEI study may receive relatively great weight in the regulatory process, it increases only slightly the probability that EPA's CO standards will be changed.     

Extrapolating human probability judgment

We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.     

刑法司法解释视域下的法院案例指导制度

案例指导制度在本质上是一种法律适用机制,其主旨在于统一法律适用,指导性体现在判决理由的说明,优势在于其实务性和开放性。案例指导制度很好地克服了抽象司法解释的诸多不足,是对具体法律适用解释价值的体现和认可。该制度对于提高裁判文书的论证说理性和法官解释法律的能力有着操作层面的意义。     

论拒不执行调解书的归责

解释刑法用语的含义,不能超出普通民众能够理解的、可以察觉到的范围.无论是司法解释,还是立法解释,在解释“人民法院的判决、裁定”时均未表示可以涵盖“调解书”.结合罪刑法定原则、刑法谦抑性、期待可能性等理论,应当认识到仅凭行为人拒不执行调解书而对其行为进行刑法上的归责,是欠妥当的.     

The Lichtenberg Financial Decision Screening Scale (LFDSS): A new tool for assessing financial decision making and preventing financial exploitation

ABSTRACT

One of the challenges in preventing the financial exploitation of older adults is that neither criminal justice nor noncriminal justice professionals are equipped to detect capacity deficits. Because decision-making capacity is a cornerstone assessment in cases of financial exploitation, effective instruments for measuring this capacity are essential. We introduce a new screening scale for financial decision making that can be administered to older adults. To explore the scale’s implementation and assess construct validity, we conducted a pilot study of 29 older adults seen by APS (Adult Protective Services) workers and 79 seen by other professionals. Case examples are included.     

新民诉法第三人撤销之诉原告适格问题研究

新民诉法新增第三人撤销之诉内容,旨在保障民事诉讼中第三人之利益,但条文表述过于简单,整体规定模糊,缺乏逻辑性。其中,第三人撤销之诉的原告适格地位较为抽象,开启第三人撤销之诉的资格缺乏可操作的标准,司法实践中不易把握。在分析法条表意的基础上,有必要探究立法设立第三人撤销之诉的原因,并结合既判力、反射效力及当事人程序保障的理论对现有法条进行合理的司法解释,对无独立请求权第三人进行扩大解释,扩大第三人撤销之诉的原告的范围,以期充分发挥第三人撤销之诉的作用。     

当代文学文献史料研究的历史困境与主要问题

当代文学文献史料有其自身的特殊性和复杂性：文献史料的生成和存在总是与意识形态难以分割地缠结在一起;在当下它又深受科技、市场和全球化等现实语境和因素的影响;而研究者自身的认知和素养更是与文献史料研究的展开及其水平层次有直接关联。当代文学在发展过程中已积累了较为丰富的文献史料,为了学科建设及自身学术水平、层次和规格的进一步提升,有必要将长期以来被遮蔽的文献史料纳入研究视野。     

A Short-Form Scale to Measure Peer Relations Dysfunction

This paper presents validation testing results of a short-form scale designed to measure the degree or intensity of problems in peer relationships as seen and reported by the respondent. After reporting the psychometric characteristics of the scale, the authors present data to show how use of the scale might enhance a therapist's accuracy of assessment of peer relation problems. Further, a "clinical cutting score" is suggested which can help a therapist determine whether a peer problem is clinically significant.     

审美与直觉主义

审美是一种情感和意志的直觉活动,这一活动既有感性的参与,也有理性的加入。当然,审美的前提是先有一个直接的对象(美的形象)存在。对于该形象的直觉感受就是审美直觉,审美的一切情感体验都来自于这种审美直觉。康德激发了直觉的效力,也引发了后人对直觉的迷恋和想象。他将直觉看作是感性的,不过却又将其囿于理性范畴。克罗齐和柏格森承续了康德,也进一步发展了康德的观点。概言之,克罗齐和柏格森则直接将直觉看作为沉淀着理性色彩的感性能力,而这一所谓"直觉"是诸多能力的综合,也是感性与理性的综合。关键是二人对"直觉"的解释引发了直觉主义,在此基础上"审美直觉主义"则更是流布广远。     

基于模糊信息的突发事件应急群决策研究

突发事件涉及面广、决策复杂,需要多方专家的联合决策,以有效集结各方专家的知识和经验,最大限度地降低突发事件带来的损失。针对面临突发事件时各方决策专家的犹豫性及知识不完善性,提出基于残缺直觉判断矩阵的突发事件应急群决策方法。通过构造残缺直觉判断矩阵表达各方决策专家的偏好信息,利用直觉模糊加权算子集结群偏好,计算得分函数对各方案进行排序择优。通过对突发泥石流事件进行案例分析,表明该方法充分考虑了群决策专家在突发事件应急决策中的不确定性和犹豫性,在应急管理领域中的应用是可行、有效的。