Relevance of Risk Predictions Derived from a Chronic Species Sensitivity Distribution with Cadmium to Aquatic Populations and Ecosystems

Criteria to protect aquatic life are intended to protect diverse ecosystems, but in practice are usually developed from compilations of single‐species toxicity tests using standard test organisms that were tested in laboratory environments. Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) developed from these compilations are extrapolated to set aquatic ecosystem criteria. The protectiveness of the approach was critically reviewed with a chronic SSD for cadmium comprising 27 species within 21 genera. Within the data set, one genus had lower cadmium effects concentrations than the SSD fifth percentile‐based criterion, so in theory this genus, the amphipod Hyalella, could be lost or at least allowed some level of harm by this criteria approach. However, population matrix modeling projected only slightly increased extinction risks for a temperate Hyalella population under scenarios similar to the SSD fifth percentile criterion. The criterion value was further compared to cadmium effects concentrations in ecosystem experiments and field studies. Generally, few adverse effects were inferred from ecosystem experiments at concentrations less than the SSD fifth percentile criterion. Exceptions were behavioral impairments in simplified food web studies. No adverse effects were apparent in field studies under conditions that seldom exceeded the criterion. At concentrations greater than the SSD fifth percentile, the magnitudes of adverse effects in the field studies were roughly proportional to the laboratory‐based fraction of species with adverse effects in the SSD. Overall, the modeling and field validation comparisons of the chronic criterion values generally supported the relevance and protectiveness of the SSD fifth percentile approach with cadmium.     

Calibration of FISK, an Invasiveness Screening Tool for Nonnative Freshwater Fishes

Adapted from the weed risk assessment (WRA) of Pheloung, Williams, and Halloy, the fish invasiveness scoring kit (FISK) was proposed as a screening tool for freshwater fishes. This article describes improvements to FISK, in particular the incorporation of confidence (certainty/uncertainty) ranking of the assessors' responses, and reports on the calibration of the score system, specifically: determination of most appropriate score thresholds for classifying nonnative species into low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, assessment of the patterns of assessors' confidences in their responses in the FISK assessments. Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, FISK was demonstrated to distinguish accurately (and with statistical confidence) between potentially invasive and noninvasive species of nonnative fishes, with the statistically appropriate threshold score for high-risk species scores being ≥19. Within the group of species classed as high risk using this new threshold, a "higher risk" category could be visually identified, at present consisting of two species (topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva and gibel carp Carassius gibelio ). FISK represents a useful and viable tool to aid decision- and policymakers in assessing and classifying freshwater fishes according to their potential invasiveness.     

Global product development projects: measuring performance and monitoring the risks

Abstract

This article investigates the development and application of key performance indicators for global product development. Two in-depth, longitudinal case studies with multinational Danish manufacturing companies were conducted, and highlight how key performance indicators, typically used for collocated, cross-functional product development, do not provide the predictive insight required to avoid the additional risks encountered in the global product development environment. Grounded in the case study results and building on established methodologies in performance measurement literature, a framework was developed and validated in two additional Danish companies to support project managers to develop: preventive indicators, which support the avoidance of identified risks, and outcome indicators, which support the measurement towards the attainment of project objectives. The study is unique as it is one of the very few longitudinal studies of engineering design activities in a global context, providing the in-depth contextual understanding towards key risks and their influence on performance; an important step to support researchers and practitioners with the development of preventive measures.     

新兴技术的物种特性及形成路径研究

基于新兴技术的概念和特征,以及物种形成的基本理论,阐明了新兴技术的物种特性;同时,在进行生物进化与技术演化的相关概念对比的基础上,类比物种形成方式对新兴技术形成路径进行了探讨,并总结了每一条路径下形成的各类新兴技术的特点和发展趋势,为今后针对每一种特定的新兴技术作深入研究奠定基础。     

Communicating Conservation Status: How Different Statistical Assessment Criteria Affect Perceptions of Extinction Risk

Although alternative forms of statistical and verbal information are routinely used to convey species’ extinction risk to policymakers and the public, little is known about their effects on audience information processing and risk perceptions. To address this gap in literature, we report on an experiment that was designed to explore how perceptions of extinction risk differ as a function of five different assessment benchmarks (Criteria A–E) used by scientists to classify species within IUCN Red List risk levels (e.g., Critically Endangered, Vulnerable), as well as the role of key individual differences in these effects (e.g., rational and experiential thinking styles, environmental concern). Despite their normative equivalence within the IUCN classification system, results revealed divergent effects of specific assessment criteria: on average, describing extinction risk in terms of proportional population decline over time (Criterion A) and number of remaining individuals (Criterion D) evoked the highest level of perceived risk, whereas the single‐event probability of a species becoming extinct (Criterion E) engendered the least perceived risk. Furthermore, participants scoring high in rationality (analytic thinking) were less prone to exhibit these biases compared to those low in rationality. Our findings suggest that despite their equivalence in the eyes of scientific experts, IUCN criteria are indeed capable of engendering different levels of risk perception among lay audiences, effects that carry direct and important implications for those tasked with communicating about conservation status to diverse publics.     

首调唱名法的制度原则对理解西方音乐的启示

理解的对象是文本,音乐的文本指的是用符号记下来的乐谱按照规则而组成的乐句系统。因此,理解西方音乐的关键是对西方音乐文本制度的正确解读。首调唱名法的制度原则给予我们对理解西方音乐最大的启示是,音与乐音之间的重要区别,即音要在具体的音乐制度体系中才有意义。     

对《苏州市湿地保护条例》的评析及完善建议

《苏州市湿地保护条例》在借鉴我国已有的湿地保护法规、立法经验的基础上,建立了湿地保护专家委员会;根据所在行政区域湿地的地域性特点,将永久性水稻田纳入湿地保护的范围;总结行之有效的实践经验,确定了湿地生态补偿机制。但从内容上看,它没能彻底解决我国湿地行政管理体制与湿地保护问题综合性之冲突及湿地保护违法成本低的难题。建议设立苏州市湿地保护协调委员会,并将湿地违法行为的处罚额度与苏州市经济水平相结合。     

理工科基础课探究式教学的反思

通过对探究式教学目的的反思,以及理工科基础课特点的总结,摸索出适用于理工科基础课的"概念-问题-探究"教学新模式。     

论非法经营同类营业罪的犯罪主体

对非法经营同类营业罪的犯罪主体的理解,存在着理论和实践上的分歧。本文认为,非法经营同类营业罪的犯罪主体应该严格限制在刑法所规定的范围之内,不宜作扩张理解,即只能由国有独资公司、企业的董事、经理、副经理构成。     

工程机械制造产业集群竞争力驱动因素研究--以徐州工程机械产业集群为例

研究以文献元分析为基础,开发量表并设计问卷提取相关因素,并以徐州工程机械产业集群为调研对象进行调研,结合主成分分析对其作进一步统计学处理与探索性验证。结果表明：集群网络协作能力、集群知识创新能力、集群科技产出能力、集群内外部环境、集群发展后劲是驱动工程机械产业竞争力的关键因素。