基于支持向量机模型的北京市能源需求预测研究

北京市能源需求系统具有非线性、历史数据较少而影响因素众多等复杂特征, 而支持向量机模型在解决小样本、非线性及高维模式识别问题方面具有突出优势。为此, 引入支持向量机模型对北京市1978-2010年能源需求进行建模, 并据此对2012-2020年能源需求量进行预测。结果表明:支持向量机模型能有效拟合北京市能源需求系统的复杂变化趋势, 比其他传统方法有更高的预测精度。研究发现, 2012-2020年北京市能源需求量逐年增加, 年均增速2.75%;另外, 北京市能源需求的增速在“十三五”期间会比“十二五”期间略有趋缓。     

能量管理模式在高校中的应用

能量管理就是通过形成特定的习惯使得身体、情绪、思想和精神这四种源泉都能够为人类系统地增加并定时补充能量。高校现有的人力资源管理以向教师索取更多的时间管理模式来提高学校的核心竞争力,导致教师群体大部分人处于亚健康生活状态。能量管理这一新兴模式可以克服时间管理的有限性,运用从高校中高层管理者开始实施能量管理培训,建立专门能量管理培训组织机构,采取丰富的体能培训手段,增加对教师精神和物质投资等策略,保护教师身心健康,维护和延长教师作为人力资源的价值持久性,使教师成为高校实现长远规划的脊梁。     

能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长关系的实证研究——以河南省为例

结合河南省1978--2010年间的样本数据,采用协整分析、VECM模型和格兰杰因果检验等方法,实证分析了能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长三者之间的关系。结果表明,能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长三者之间具有长期均衡关系,碳排放与能源消耗和经济增长之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,能源消耗与经济增长之间具有双向因果关系。     

EU and China: Destined to Be Partners in Shaping the Post-Kyoto Regime?

This paper argues that China and the EU are destined to be partners in fighting for a second period of commitments for global climate change governance and shaping the post-Kyoto regime to meet the anticipated challenges of the 21^st century. The basic idea backing this argumentation is the assessment that, in comparison with other nations (the United States, Russia, India, Japan and Canada), Europe and China would have most to lose if the upgrading of the Kyoto Protocol fails; and conversely, they would have most to win if the regime survives in a modernized form and with a more comprehensive application of international binding commitments. This is to say, the EU and China have no choice but to work together if they want to achieve their respective political objectives relating to the issue of global climate change in a less costly and more effective way.     

The Realized Laplace Transform of Volatility

We introduce and derive the asymptotic behavior of a new measure constructed from high‐frequency data which we call the realized Laplace transform of volatility. The statistic provides a nonparametric estimate for the empirical Laplace transform function of the latent stochastic volatility process over a given interval of time and is robust to the presence of jumps in the price process. With a long span of data, that is, under joint long‐span and infill asymptotics, the statistic can be used to construct a nonparametric estimate of the volatility Laplace transform as well as of the integrated joint Laplace transform of volatility over different points of time. We derive feasible functional limit theorems for our statistic both under fixed‐span and infill asymptotics as well as under joint long‐span and infill asymptotics which allow us to quantify the precision in estimation under both sampling schemes.     

长三角地区节能减排演化情景分析及预测

以长三角地区经济发展为基础,综合考虑该地区能源环境现状。基于节能减排动态演化模型,结合情景分析法对长三角地区2015年经济产值、能源消耗及污染排放进行预测,并分析2009～2015年经济产值、能源消耗及污染排放演化情况。旨在为未来长三角地区实施节能减排策略,实现可持续发展提供理论依据。     

Management of Energy Technology for Sustainability: How to Fund Energy Technology Research and Development

Operations management methods have been applied profitably to a wide range of technology portfolio management problems, but have been slow to be adopted by governments and policy makers. We develop a framework that allows us to apply such techniques to a large and important public policy problem: energy technology R&D portfolio management under climate change. We apply a multi‐model approach, implementing probabilistic data derived from expert elicitations into a novel stochastic programming version of a dynamic integrated assessment model. We note that while the unifying framework we present can be applied to a range of models and data sets, the specific results depend on the data and assumptions used and therefore may not be generalizable. Nevertheless, the results are suggestive, and we find that the optimal technology portfolio for the set of projects considered is fairly robust to different specifications of climate uncertainty, to different policy environments, and to assumptions about the opportunity cost of investing. We also conclude that policy makers would do better to over‐invest in R&D rather than under‐invest. Finally, we show that R&D can play different roles in different types of policy environments, sometimes leading primarily to cost reduction, other times leading to better environmental outcomes.     

Metabolism and Driving Forces of Chinese Urban Household Consumption

This study was aimed at developing a better understanding of environmental pressure of urban household consumption in China. First, we introduced the concept model of household metabolism. Using this model, we analyzed the changes of Chinese household metabolism during the last 20 years. Rather than taking into account all aspects of household consumption, we just focused on water and energy metabolisms. After exploring the clearly increasing trends of urban household metabolism in China, we identified the underlying driving forces as biological/physical factors, economic/marketing factors and demographic factors. In conclusion, we suggest that additional work must be carried out in a wider range of household activities and at more advanced research levels in China.     

江苏省工业能源强度的影响因素分析

江苏省正处于工业化、城镇化加快发展的重要阶段。随着工业的发展,能源消费总量逐年增加。在国家节能减排政策激励下,江苏省单位GDP能耗和单位工业增加值一次能耗呈现出逐年下降的趋势。首先探讨了降低能源强度的必要性,然后从能源消费结构、产业结构、技术进步三方面分析了影响江苏省工业能源强度的因素,最后提出降低能源强度的对策建议。     

安徽省发展新能源汽车的SWOT分析

阐述了国内新能源汽车发展现状,利用SWOT分析方法对安徽省发展新能源汽车的内外部环境进行分析,指出汽车工业是安徽重要的支柱产业,在新能源汽车领域,安徽走在全国前列,新能源汽车的开发将是安徽汽车发展战略的新方向。为政府制定政策提供了科学的依据,并就存在的主要问题,提出相关建议,以促进安徽省新能源汽车产业的快速、健康发展。