Using Analysis of Variance and Factor Analysis for the Reduction of High Dimensional Variation in Time Series of Energy Consumption

Summary: In this paper the complexity of high dimensional data with cyclical variation is reduced using analysis of variance and factor analysis. It is shown that the prediction of a small number of main cyclical factors is more useful than forecasting all the time-points separately as it is usually done by seasonal time series models. To give an example for this approach we analyze the electricity demand per quarter of an hour of industrial customers in Germany. The necessity of such predictions results from the liberalization of the German electricity market in 1998 due to legal requirements of the EC in 1996.     

从生态学的层面以能量流动解析社会发展过程

为了更好地理解社会发展的本质，进一步构建和谐社会，从生态学的层面解析了社会发展过程。论述了发展的本质是能量的流动、追求有序，发展的方向是负熵能量流动的方向。人产生于自然发展过程之中，人本身是自然最伟大的创造，需要最大的负熵能量流动，这样，自然相对于人具有先在性。科学发展观的以人为本体现了现实的人、人类思维、人的创造性等有关人的逻辑，从而揭示人是社会发展的本质。分析了社会保障、劳动就业、教育与人的发展的关系，及广泛联系的生态关系延伸进入社会，如何构筑了社会和谐发展的逻辑。指出：在科学发展观指导下的和谐社会的构建，就是要建设中国特色的社会主义和谐社会。     

Bayesian Methodology for Model Uncertainty Using Model Performance Data

A simple and useful characterization of many predictive models is in terms of model structure and model parameters. Accordingly, uncertainties in model predictions arise from uncertainties in the values assumed by the model parameters (parameter uncertainty) and the uncertainties and errors associated with the structure of the model (model uncertainty). When assessing uncertainty one is interested in identifying, at some level of confidence, the range of possible and then probable values of the unknown of interest. All sources of uncertainty and variability need to be considered. Although parameter uncertainty assessment has been extensively discussed in the literature, model uncertainty is a relatively new topic of discussion by the scientific community, despite being often the major contributor to the overall uncertainty. This article describes a Bayesian methodology for the assessment of model uncertainties, where models are treated as sources of information on the unknown of interest. The general framework is then specialized for the case where models provide point estimates about a single‐valued unknown, and where information about models are available in form of homogeneous and nonhomogeneous performance data (pairs of experimental observations and model predictions). Several example applications for physical models used in fire risk analysis are also provided.     

语势与取势:庞德《代马不思越》译诗研究

庞德<代马不思越>译诗以语势为尚,在音象、义象、形象上取势:在音象上,译诗注重音韵,头韵、元韵丰富;较多运用双元音、长元音,节奏平稳而舒缓;大量使用流音/l/、鼻音/m/、/n/及摩擦音/s/、/z/、/f/、/v/以烘托凄凉气氛;注重节奏,注重节奏的重复与平衡.在义象上,庞德对不同的诗句采取不同的翻译策略,有时发挥译者主体性,改译原诗句;有时极大地忠实于费氏笔记,进行逐字式直译.在形象上,庞德创造性翻译意象,实验意象并置手法.     

改革开放30年中国能源发展战略的变革

改革开放30年来中国能源发展战略发生了重大变革，从改革开放前的“开源战略”转变为改革开放后的“综合能源效率战略”，从而为上世纪党中央提出的“一番保两番”目标提前5年实现提供了有力保障。针对新世纪党中央提出又一个“经济翻两番”目标，笔者提出了“能源与经济协调发展战略”及其对策建议。     

双重价格机制下经济系统的运行研究

本文研究双重价格机制下经济系统的运行,建立了混合经济的价值理论,证明了竞争均衡的存在性,这一研究对于理解混合经济系统的运行有重要的意义。     

积分中值定理“中间点”收敛速度的一个估计

利用函数连续模分别给出了第一积分中值定理和第二积分中值定理的“中间点”收敛速度的一个估计。     

复调和函数的Cauchy积分公式

建立了复调和函数积分,得出了其Ｃａｕｃｈｙ积分定理与Ｃａｕｃｈｙ积分公式,并讨论了单位圆上复调和函数Ｃａｕｃｈｙ积分公式的特征．     

A Bayesian positive dependence of survival times based on the multivariate arrangement increasing property

We introduce a new notion of positive dependence of survival times of system components using the multivariate arrangement increasing property. Following the spirit of Barlow and Mendel (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 87, 1116–1122), who introduced a new univariate aging notion relative to exchangeable populations of components, we characterize a multivariate positive dependence with respect to exchangeable multicomponent systems. Closure properties of such a class of distributions under some reliability operations are discussed. For an infinite population of systems our definition of multivariate positive dependence can be considered in the frequentist’s paradigm as multivariate totally positive of order 2 with an independence condition. de Finetti(-type) representations for a particular class of survival functions are also given.     

青岛可持续发展的能源战略与政策

青岛作为中国重要的沿海开放城市,随着国民经济持续快速的发展,能源消耗也随之增长。这不仅对能源供给带来了很大的压力,而且也对城市环境造成很大的影响,进而对以建设大工业体系为主导的城市经济发展战略构成严峻挑战。因此,寻求有效缓解能源约束所造成的结构性矛盾,建立可持续发展的经济运行机制,是未来青岛经济发展应当解决好的重要问题之一。