Is Probability the Only Coherent Approach to Uncertainty?

In this article, I discuss an argument that purports to prove that probability theory is the only sensible means of dealing with uncertainty. I show that this argument can succeed only if some rather controversial assumptions about the nature of uncertainty are accepted. I discuss these assumptions and provide reasons for rejecting them. I also present examples of what I take to be non-probabilistic uncertainty.     

中部县域城镇化与工业化、能源消耗量关系的实证研究

文章中部县域工业化和城镇化特征入手,构建县域工业化和市区产出与县域城镇化关系模型、城镇化和工业化与能源销量的模型,并运用中部地区的面板数据进行了实证分析,揭示城镇化、工业化和能源消耗的内在关系,提出构建适度控制城镇化进程的政策建议。     

中国产业结构优化升级的测度和比较分析

产业结构优化升级包括结构高度化和合理化两方面.准确测度高度化水平和合理化程度能为产业结构优化升级过程中的一系列制度变革和政策调整提供依据.从分析产业结构优化升级(高度化和合理化)的机制及其与经济增长(非均衡增长和均衡增长)的关系入手.定义理想情况下产业结构优化升级的最优路径.在此基础上,建立一套基于静态投入产出模型的产业结构优化升级测度方法,并利用1997年、2002年和2005年全国投入产出表提供的数据具体测度这一时期中国产业结构的高度化水平和合理化程度,对产业结构优化升级的趋势进行分析.结果表明,这一时期中国产业结构的整体高度化水平和合理化程度出现先提高后降低的趋势,各产业的实际情况与理想情况仍然存在不同程度的偏差.     

以循环经济的思路实现能源与环境的协调发展

从循环经济内涵及实质入手,讨论了能源行业发展循环经济的思路和重点环节,认为通过依靠技术进步、发展多联产、提高能源转化率等手段,可以实现能源与环境的协调发展。政府要通过制定法规、政策、标准等,为资源型企业的可持续发展创造政策环境和市场环境。政府有效利用市场机制,是循环经济发展不可或缺的。     

能源强度的指数分解分析研究综述

指数分解分析是一个研究能源强度变化及其作用机理的良好分析框架,围绕这一方法,综述了指数分解分析在方法论方面的研究现状及其在能源领域,尤其在能源强度方面的应用研究。将我国学者关于能源强度变化的研究结论划分为3类:技术进步决定论、阶段贡献变化论和分解层次影响论,并指出了指数分解分析在研究能源强度变化机理中的三大缺陷。最后,对未来的研究方向进行了展望。     

世界能源格局新趋势与我国石油战略对策

世界范围内的石油需求市场、供应、资本的多元化,显示世界能源格局已拉开了新一轮大调整的序幕.世界主要强国纷纷出台了本国的能源发展战略.我国的能源安全形势严峻,我国必须尽快实施部署"重组、开源、节流、重储、保运、合作"的能源安全战略,以确保我国能源供应的安全.     

On the distribution of products of independent beta variates

This paper concerns an inquiry into the problem of generating closed form expressions for the cumulative distribution and probability density functions of products of independent beta variates. Recursive analytical procedures for constructing the equational forms of these functions-from their Mellin inversion integral representations, via the Cauchy residue theorem-are described. A numerical example illustrating details of the construction of a computable form of the distribution function of the product of three independent beta variates is also included.     

Asymptotic properties for multipower variation of semimartingales and Gaussian integral processes with jumps

This paper presents limit theorems of realized multipower variation for semimartingales and Gaussian integral processes with jumps observed in high frequency. In particular, we obtain a central limit theorem of realized multipower variation for semimartingale where some of the powers equal one and the others are less one. Convergence in probability and central limit theorems of realized threshold bipower variation for Gaussian integral processes with jumps are also obtained. These results provide new statistical tools to analyze and test the long memory effect in high frequency situation.     

Dependence structures and asymptotic properties of Baker's distributions with fixed marginals

We investigate the properties of Baker's (2008) bivariate distributions with fixed marginals and their multivariate extensions. The properties include the weak convergence to the Fréchet–Hoeffding upper bound, the product-moment convergence, as well as the dependence structures TP₂ (totally positive of order 2), or MTP₂ (multivariate TP₂). In proving the weak convergence, a generalized local limit theorem for binomial distribution is provided.     

Central Limit Theorems for Reduced U‐Statistics Under Dependence and Their Usefulness

A reduced ‐statistic is a ‐statistic with its summands drawn from a restricted but balanced set of pairs. In this article, central limit theorems are derived for reduced ‐statistics under ‐mixing, which significantly extends the work of Brown & Kildea in various aspects. It will be shown and illustrated that reduced ‐statistics are quite useful in deriving test statistics in various nonparametric testing problems.